搜索
17January2018HealthCareChinaHealthcareHealthCareHealthCareIndustryUpdateAsiaJapanIndustryChinaHealthcareDate17January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMonthlyHospitalRxTracker,November2017SalesdeclinedinNovemberTotalhospitaldrugsalesdropped3.0%YoYinNovember17,vs.2.2%/7.3%growthinYTD10m17/2016.OncologydrugsAiTan(apatinib)andDuomeisucontinuedtogrowstronglyat41%and78%YoYrespectivelyinQTD4Q17,vs.80%and61%in3Q17.FlagshipdrugsKaiTeLi,Runzhong,EPIAO,TPIAOandNBPgrew-11%,-8%,-20%,51%and20%YoYinQTD4Q17,vs.-8%,-1%,-14%,26%and15%in3Q17,vs.21%,9%,-6%,9%and18%in1H17,andvs.25%,26%,5%,33%and33%in2016.Hengrui:apatinibsolid;KaiTeLilaggedSalesofAiTan,AiLi,AiSu,AiHeng,theatracuriumseriesandKaiTeLigrew41%,7%,6%,-8%,-3%and-11%YoYrespectivelyinQTD4Q17,vs.80%,20%,10%,-2%,10%and-8%in3Q17,vs.141%,15%,1%,0%,8%and21%in1H17,andvs.637%,13%,4%,0%,5%and25%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthforAiLiandAiSuwas14%and8%inQTD4Q17,vs.18%and8%in3Q17,vs.13%and-1%in1H17.SBP:Runzhongdeclined;KaifensloweddownHengrui:raisingPTtoRMB82.2fromRMB78.1OurPTisbasedon59x2018EEPSduetohighervisibilityofthepipeline.Webelievethemultipleisjustified,asitsA-sharepeersaretradingat37x2018EEPSwith18%growthin2019E(vs.27%forHengrui).Webelieveitspremiumisjustifiedbyasuperiorpipeline,upsidepotentialfromexportsandearningsgrowthacceleration,drivenbyblockbusterlaunches.Keyrisksincludelaunchdelaysandpricecuts.Runzhong,Ganmei,KaishiandKaifenrecordedYoYgrowthof-8%,-6%,-17%and13%YoYrespectivelyinQTD4Q17,vs.-1%,-2%,-14%and21%in3Q17,vs.9%,0%,-9%and21%in1H17,andvs.26%,1%,-1%and31%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofRunzhongandGanmeiwas-4%and-3%inQTD4Q17,vs.2%and-1%in3Q17,vs.8%and-1%in1H17.3SBio:growthofYisaipuandTPIAOacceleratedEPIAOandTPIAOgrew-20%and51%YoYrespectivelyinQTD4Q17,vs.-14%and26%in3Q17,vs.-6%and9%in1H17,andvs.5%and33%in2016.Yisaipugrew19%YoYinQTD4Q17,vs.9%/-2%/2%in3Q17/1H17/2016.GrowthofSEPOremainedstrongat77%YoYinQTD4Q17,vs.79%/7%in3Q17/1H17.CSPC:oncologyfranchisedelivereddecentgrowthFlagshipproductsNBP,OulainingandXuanninggrew20%,-16%and-3%YoYrespectivelyinQTD4Q17,vs.15%,-10%,and-2%in3Q17,vs.18%,-9%and0%in1H17,andvs.33%,4%and6%in2016.GrowthofDuomeisuandJinyouliremainedsolid,recording78%and133%YoYrespectivelyinQTD4Q17,vs.61%and117%in3Q17,vs.48%and96%in1H17,andvs.120%and180%in2016.JackHu,Ph.D.ResearchAnalyst+852-22036208MeganXuResearchAssociate+852-22035928KeyChangesCompanyTargetPriceRating600276.SS78.10to82.20-Source:DeutscheBankToppicksSinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK),HKD14.84BuyUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD7.38BuyJointownPharmaceuticals(600998.SS),CNY17.96BuySource:DeutscheBankDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.ThecontentmaynotbedistributedinThePeople'sRepublicofChina(“ThePRC”)(exceptincompliancewiththeapplicablelawsandregulationsofPRC),excludingSpecialAdministrativeRegionsofHongKongandMacau.Distributedon:17/01/201807:49:24GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa17January2018HealthCareChinaHealthcareTotalhospitaldrugsalesDown3.0%YoYinNovemberTotalhospitaldrugsalesdeclined3.0%YoYinNovembervs.2.2%inYTD10m17and7.3%inFY16,respectively.Onaquarterlybasis,totaldrugsalesregisteredgrowthof3.3%,2.6%,1.8%and6.2%during3Q17,2Q17,1Q17and4Q16.Figure1:Totalhospitaldrugsales(January2014–November2017)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530TotalhospitaldrugsalesYoYgrowthRMBbnSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong17January2018HealthCareChinaHealthcareFlagshipdrugdataWesummarizethegrowthdetailsoftheflagshipproductsof13drugcompaniesinthefollowingtables.WecautioninvestorsthatmonthlysalesdataweresubjecttoseasonalityandfirstquarterdatawaslikelyimpactedbytheCNYeffect.Hengrui(600276.SS)■GrowthofoncologydrugsAiTan(apatinib),AiSu(docetaxel),AiLi(irinotecan),andAiHeng(oxaliplatin)deceleratedto41%,6%,7%,and-8%YoYinQTD4Q17,vs.80%,10%,20%,and-2%in3Q17,vs.141%,1%,15%,and0%in1H17,andvs.637%,4%,13%,and0%in2016.■SalesofanestheticdrugsKaiTeLi(sevoflurane)andIoversoldecreased11%and0%YoYinQTD4Q17,vs.-8%and16%growthin3Q17,vs.21%and19%in1H17,andvs.25%and18%in2016.Figure2:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiTanFigure3:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiSu0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%0510152025AiTanYoYgrowth-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070AiSuYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure4:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiLiFigure5:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiHeng-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0510152025303540AiLiYoYgrowth-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202530AiHengYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage317January2018HealthCareChinaHealthcareFigure6:Three-monthrollingaveragefor