瑞银美股医疗保健行业2019年Q2美国牙科EPS预览结果会支撑牙科股的积极走势么201971825页

GlobalResearch18July2019USDental2Q19EPSPreview:WillResultsSupportthePositiveMoveinDentalShares?2Q19Set-Up:IncrementallycautiousonXRAY,positiveonALGNDentalnamesinourcoverageaverageda+5.2%increase(+10.0%ex-ALGN)vs.a+2.0%increasefortheSPXsincereportingC1Q19earnings.ALGNandXRAYhavegeneratedthemajorityofourcallvolumesintothequarter,withthedebatebeingmorepolarizedinALGNafteritmovedbackover$300,andnewbuyerswonderingwhatcouldcausethepositivemomentuminXRAYtostop.Duringthequarter,bothHSICandPDCOtoutedtheperformanceofXRAY'sPrimescandigitalscannerpost-launch,whichpositivelyimpactedPDCOequipmentsalesinthemostrecentquarter(May-end).However,despiteXRAYprovidingassurancesofdeliveryandquality,webelievetheremaybeanear-termcaptoPrimescanvolumesfrompotentialXRAYcapacityconstraintsasestimatesincreaseintoC2H19.WenotethatmutedconsumablesgrowthatPDCO(-1.9%)suggestslesscorrelationbetweendentalequipmentandconsumablessales.Althoughinsidersellingintra-quartergivesuspause,webelieveabetterrisk-rewardontheprintonthelongsidemightbeALGNgiventherelativenear-termunderperformancecausedbyinvestorconcernsaroundcompetition,thelaunchrampofthemandibularproduct,Chinaeconomicgrowth,andsequentialcasevolumedeclinesintoatougher3Q19comp.Wenotethe+3-4%priceincreaseALGNexpectstotakein3Q19couldperhapssupportrevenuegrowthandapositiveguide.Keyareasoffocusforthecalls1)XRAY'sabilitytomeetPrimescandemandpost-IDS(andanyupdateonALGNvalidationofXRAYproducts);2)ALGNinternationalrampandInvisalignpricing/volumegrowthaheadof3Q19;3)Overalldentalmarketgrowth(followingPDCOestimateof0-2%)andthestateoftheconsumablesmarket;4)DSOmarketpenetrationandmarginimpactfromincrementalRFPactivity.PTandModelChangesWearenotmakinganychangestoourPTsaheadofthequarter.WehavemadesmallchangestoourHSICestima[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]USDental18July20192CompsFigure1:DentalCompsSource:FactsetCompanyPreviewsALGN(NEUTRAL,$325PT)Set-upintotheCall:Underperformancesetslowbarfor2Q,butwebelieve3Q19commentarywillbethefocusALGNisdown-4.4%sincereportingonApril24thvs+2.0%fortheS&P.Therelativeunderperformancemaybedrivenbythefearofcompetition,theslowingChinaeconomyinthequarter(whereALGNhasmademeaningfulinvestmentinthepastyear),achallenging3Qvolumecompasoverallvolumesaredecliningslightlyonatwo-yearstackdueprimarilytothelawoflargenumbers,andsomegeneralprofittakingfollowingthestock's50%+runfromJanuary1throughApril.Wehavenotedamorebalancedcallvolumefrominvestorsheadedintothe2Qprint.Figure2:ALGNCaseVolumeGrowth2-YearStackSource:CompanyData,UBSResearchIntra-quarter,STMNoptedtopayALGN$16Mratherthangoforwardwiththeproposaltosell5,000iTeroscannersoverthenext5years.ThiswasabitofadisappointmentforALGNshareholders,asatroughly$30kperscanner,weestimatethiscouldhavepotentiallyadded500+bpofannualScanner&ServicesEV/EBITDAP/ERevGrowthEBITGrowthEPSGrowthShort2019EEBITDA2019EEBITCompanyCY19CY20CY19CY20CY19CY20CY19CY20CY19CY20InterestMarginMarginAlignTechnologies34.3x26.3x51.2x39.1x24.2%23.3%21.8%33.3%11.5%30.9%4.6%27.4%23.3%HenrySchein13.2x12.6x20.2x18.6x-24.0%3.8%-16.8%6.4%-16.4%9.1%12.4%8.9%7.4%PattersonDental10.4x10.1x15.5x14.7x2.0%2.9%-9.6%2.9%-7.3%3.4%12.9%4.4%3.6%DentsplySirona17.5x15.7x24.0x21.2x1.1%3.2%16.4%10.7%17.3%13.1%2.0%23.0%16.4%StraumannHoldings28.2x23.7x38.5x32.3x17.6%15.0%20.0%18.4%29.7%19.1%N/A30.4%26.0%Average20.7x17.7x29.9x25.2x4.2%9.6%6.4%14.3%7.0%15.1%8.0%18.8%15.3%Median17.5x15.7x24.0x21.2x2.0%3.8%16.4%10.7%11.5%13.1%8.5%23.0%16.4%41.8%43.6%43.9%45.3%54.2%58.0%64.2%60.3%62.6%61.7%68.7%65.2%57.3%52.0%47.2%51.5%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%1Q16A2Q16A3Q16A4Q16A1Q17A2Q17A3Q17A4Q17A1Q18A2Q18A3Q18A4Q18A1Q19A2Q19E3Q19E4Q19ECase-Volume2-YearStackUSDental18July20193revenuegrowthoverthenext5years.ThoughALGNwonapatentinfringementcaseagainst3Shapelastquarter,thedigitalscannermarketremainscompetitive,especiallyconsideringtheimmediatesuccessofXRAY'sPrimescanpost-IDS,andwebelieveinvestorsareincreasinglyscrutinizingtheimpactoniTerovolumesandpricing.Note,wehavenotheardanyincrementalcoloronthepotentialvalidationofXRAYproductsbyALGN,andmaynotuntillaterin2H19.Wegetasensethatexpectationsfrominvestorsforthequarterarenotforamaterialbeat,butsolidrelativeperformanceversusconsensus.Thekeyconcernandlikelydriverofperformanceforthestockonthedayoftheresultswillbecommentaryaround3Qgiventhedifficultcomp(duetolastyear'spromotionalactivity)anddecliningcasevolumegrowth(seechartabove).WebelieveALGN'smarketleadershipandrampingproductioninChinashouldcontribu