瑞银美股医疗用品与设备行业美国医疗用品与设备资本预算增长快于第三波低于第一波和第二波20197152

GlobalResearch15July2019USMedicalSuppliesandDevicesUBSEvidenceLabInside:CapitalBudgetsGrowing,FasterThanWave3,BelowWaves1&2AnalysisofUBSEvidenceLabWave4DataSuggestsHospitalSpendingGrowing,ReboundingfromWave3AnalysisofdatafromWave4(fielded6/19)ofUBSEvidenceLab’sHospitalStrategicPrioritiessurvey(n=75executives)suggestsa2.2%increaseinhospitalcapitalbudgetsonaverage,above0.8%fromWave3(3/19),andmodestlybelowthe2.6%and2.7%inWaves2and1,respectively.Mosthospitalsstillexpectbudgetstobeflatorup,withmorepositiveskewthanthepreviousWavesas~29%saidbudgetsaregoingupmorethanusualvs.20%.1Qcapitaltrendswererobustandwecontinuetoexpectstrongtrendsforcap-heavynamesincludingVAR(Buy),HRC(Buy),ISRG(Neutral),SYK(Neutral),MDT(Buy),andBDX(Neutral).WeseecontinuedprioritizationofradiologyasapositiveforPhilips(Buy)andSiemensHealthineers(Neutral),coveredbySebWalker,asitsuggestsrecentstrengthintheUSimagingmarketislikelytocontinue.Labequipmentonceagainranksnearthebottomforcapexpriorities.LargestIncreasesinRadiology,Oncology,FacilitySpend,Ortho,andCardiologyByserviceline,hospitalexecutivesexpectthebiggestbudgetincreasesinRadiology,Oncology,FacilitySpend,Ortho,andCardiology.Versustheprior3Waves,theexpectedbudgetchangesweremostpositiveforRadiologyandOncology.WhilethebiggestnegativechangeswereinUrology,OBGYN,andGeneralSurgery.MostProfitableServiceLines:Ortho,GeneralSurgery,Radiology,andICInWave4,themostprofitableservicelinesrankedwere:Orthopedics,GeneralSurgery,Radiology,andInterventionalCardiology(IC).ThiswasrelativelyconsistentacrosspriorWaves.Inservicelineswheresupplycostisrisingthefastest(placeswhereexecutivescouldlookatcostsavings),Ortho,Robotics,GeneralSurgery,Spine,andICwerethetop5rankedareas.ThiswasverysimilartoresponseswereceivedinpriorWaves.Orthohasbeenthe#1rankedchoicetermsofcostsrisinginall4surveys;withRoboticsmovinghigherto#2inthisversion.RespondentsinWave4pointedtoOrtho,GeneralSurgery,SpineSurgery,Dx,andICasareaswithhighestpotentialforcostreductions.CapitalInvestmentPriorities:Radiology,OREquip,HER,RadOnc,RoboticsFinally,theexecutivesrankedradiologyequipmentasthehighestpriorityareaforcapitalinvestment,followedbyOREquipment,EHR/RCM,RadiationOncology,RoboticSurgery,andStructuralHeart.EHR/RCMmovedupinthissurveyandradiationoncologyremainedhigh,withroboticsurgerymovingup.Weviewthisasapositiveforthemanufacturersintheseareas.Diagnosticlabsremainatopareaforcostsavings.EquitiesAmericasMedicalSuppliesMatthewTaylor,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]DanBrennan,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]USMedicalSuppliesandDevices15July20192Wave4CapitalBudgetGrowthExpectationsReboundedVs.Wave3,CapitalBudgetsExpectedtoGrowModestly…Thesurveyaskedrespondentshowtheyexpecttheirhospitalcapitalbudgettogrowy/y.Theanswerscontinuetopointtogrowthas53%calledforsomekindofincrease,slightlymorethanthe49%inWave3.15%calledforsomekindofdecrease,comparedto21%inWave3.And32%expectedaflattishbudgetcomparedto29%inWave3.Notably,15%ofsurveyedexecutivesexpecttheirbudgettoincrease10%(comparedto4%inWave3,12%inWave2,and15%inWave1)versus5%thatexpecta10%decrease(comparedto9%inWave3,3%inWave2,and4%inWave1).Figure1:HospitalCapitalBudgetsExpectedtoGrowModestlyThisYear,AnswersUpFromWaves3Source:UBSResearch,UBSEvidenceLab4%7%1%32%24%17%15%3%5%4%25%36%15%12%9%7%5%29%27%19%4%5%5%4%32%24%15%15%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Decrease10%Decrease5-10%Decrease1-4%AboutflatIncrease1-4%Increase5-10%Increase10%Wave4Wave3Wave2Wave1USMedicalSuppliesandDevices15July20193MeanIncreasesinWave4upFromWave3Usingthemidpointsoftheranges,weightedbythenumberofresponsesyieldsanaverageincreaseof2.2%inWave4,abovethe0.8%inWave3,andslightlybelowWaves1and2withaverageincreasesof2.7%and2.6%,respectively.Wewouldpointoutthat1Qresults,companycomments,andotherdatapointsliketheUBSEvidenceLabHospitalPurchasingManagerSurveyandUBSEvidenceLabOrthopaedicSurgeonSurveysuggeststhecapitalpurchasingenvironmentcontinuestobehealthy.1QincludedhealthydemandforproductssoldbyVAR,Elekta,ISRG(despiteashifttoleases),BDX,MDT,HRC,SYKandotherspointingtoastablehospitalcapitalenvironment.Figure2:HospitalAnswersPointtoaMeanIncreaseof2.2%inWave4Source:UBSResearch,UBSEvidenceLabBudgetsGoingUpMorethanUsual...Drillingdown,about29%notedtheirbudgetsaregoingupmorethanusual,with16%sayingtheyaregoingdownmorethanusualand55%consideringtheirbudgetchange'normal'.ThisisalsoamorepositiveskewthaninWave3,andsimilartoWaves1and2s