瑞银美股金融业FIA会议要点行业背景健康201931726页

GlobalResearch17March2019USExchangesFIAConferenceTakeaways:IndustryBackdropHealthybutCurrentVolumeEnvironmentWeighsConferencereiteratespositiveoutlook;butsoftvolumescreatedownsideriskLastweek,weattendedthe44thAnnualInternationalFuturesIndustryConference.Regulationremainstheprimarytopicoftheconference,andconsistentwithourupdatefollowingtheFIAExpoinOctober,wethinkthatthebackdrophasbecomemorefavorableoverthelastcoupleofyears.Thebiggestnear-termrisktothegroupremainsaslowvolumeenvironment,whichcontinuestoweighonestimates.Assuch,wecontinuetopreferthelessvolume-sensitivenamesICEandNDAQoverCBOEandCME.ExchangesstillhavedecentdownsideriskfromlowerYTDvolumesGlobalderivativesvolumesgrewsome20%lastyeartoanewrecord,buttheslowerstartto2019wasafrequenttopicattheconference.Wedonotbelievethatanythingisbroken,butthatalessfavorableenvironmenthasdampenedactivity.Thatsaid,wethinkthatexchangestockscouldremaininatoughspotwithfull-yearvolumeestimatesfor2019stilldecentlyabovecurrentrunrates.RunningYTDvolumelevelsthroughourmodelsforCBOEandCMEwouldputourrespectiveFY19estimates9%and8%belowconsensus.RegulatoryheadwindscontinuetoeaseOverall,conferenceparticipantsgavetheregulatoryenvironmentdecentmarks,notingthatmarketsaresaferandmoretransparenttodaythantheywerepriortotheglobalfinancialcrisis,butthatsomerules(i.e.,leverageratio,cross-border)stillneedtobetweaked.Mostimportantly,whileCFTCChairmanGiancarloisduetoleavetheagencyinafewmonths,weexpectthemorefavorabledirectionduringhistermtocontinueundernewleadership.HighlightsfrommanagementmeetingsCBOE:M&Abackinfocus;growthleftinproprietaryproducts;platformmigrationnearingitsend.CME:NEXintegrationprogressingwell;highercollateralchargescoming;newretailoffering.ICE:Dataoutlooksolid;lookingtobuildacomprehensivefixedincomeoffering.NDAQ:Seeingstrengthacrossthebusiness;updateonOslo;debatingmarketdata.Figure1:AnnualGlobalDerivativesVolumesSource:FIA,UBSNote:Inbillionsofcontracts;includesfuturesandoptions05101520253035199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018EquitiesAmericasDiversifiedFinancialAlexKramm,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]USExchanges17March20192FIAConferenceTakeawaysRegulatoryheadwindscontinuetoeaseRegulationremainstheprimarytopicoftheconference,andconsistentwithourlastupdatefollowingtheFIAExpoinOctober,wethinkthatthebackdrophasbecomemorefavorableoverthelastcoupleofyears.Overall,conferenceparticipantsgradedtheregulatoryenvironmentasaC+,notingthatmarketsaresaferandmoretransparenttodaythantheywerepriortotheglobalfinancialcrisis,butthatsomerulesstillneedtobetweaked.Capitalrules(leverageratio)remaininfocusinparticular,butthereseemstobeabeliefthatrulemakersaremovingintherightdirection.AreastowatchremainBrexit,cross-borderrules,andclearinghouseresiliency,inparticularfollowingthedefaultinNasdaqNordic'senergymarket.TheUSandEuropecontinuetomoveatdifferentspeeds,withEuropestillhavingtoimplementsomerules.Figure2:Howwouldyougradethehealthoftheindustryinregardstoregulation?Source:FIAConferenceparticipantpollAlackofcompetitionandaconcentrationofclearingfirmscontinuestocomeupasanareathathasnotworked.ThevastmajorityofactivitycomesfromsomefiveclearingfirmsandthenumberofFCMscontinuestoshrink.Thenumberofmarketmakersinsomeassetclasses(i.e.,options)hasalsocomedownsignificantly.Webelieveadiversesetofmarketparticipantsiscriticalforcontinuedgrowthofexchangevolumesovertime.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%FDCBAUSExchanges17March20193Figure3:Howwouldyougradethehealthoftheindustryinregardstoconcentration/competition?Source:FIAConferenceparticipantpollFigure4:Year-endNumberofFCMsSource:CFTC,UBSNote:YTDcountisasofJanuary2019CFTCleadershipchangeshouldnotalterdirectionCFTCChairmanChrisGiancarlogavehisfarewellremarksinBocaashistermattheCFTCwillendinafewmonths.TheChairmanreiteratedhisviewthatthepathofthederivativesindustryforwardshouldlargelybedeterminedbymarketforcesandthatregulatorsshouldnotbeoverlyprescriptive.ThiswasakeyelementofhisagendawhenhetookthehelmattheCFTCacoupleofyearsago,aspreviouslynoted:FIAConferenceTakeaways:ANewRegulatoryEra?.TherearestillseveralitemsontheagendabeforeMr.GiancarloleavestheCFTC,includingfinishingswaptradingrules,afinalpositionlimitsrule,andvariousnewcross-borderagreements.TheChairmanalsonotedthattheindustryispreparedforBrexit,whichhasbeenanareaofconcernoverthelastcoupleofyears.Lookingtothefuture,thespeechandsideconversationswehadwithconferenceparticipantssuggestthatthedirectionoftheCFTCwillremainconsistentwhenHeathTarbertwilllikelytakeoverasChairmanlaterthisyear.Webelievethattheinitialdirecti