经济学人2019产业报告自动驾驶能源零售医疗通信英文2019148页

Industriesin2019(TheEIU)istheresearchandanalysisdivisionofTheEconomistGroup,thesistercompanytoTheEconomistnewspaper.Createdin1946,wehaveover70years’experienceinhelpingbusinesses,financialfirmsandgovernmentstounderstandhowtheworldischangingandhowthatcreatesopportunitiestobeseizedandriskstobemanaged.Giventhatmanyoftheissuesfacingtheworldhaveaninternational(ifnotglobal)dimension,TheEIUisideallypositionedtobecommentator,interpreterandforecasteronthephenomenonofglobalisationasitgatherspaceandimpact.EIUsubscriptionservicesTheworld’sleadingorganisationsrelyonoursubscriptionservicesfordata,analysisandforecaststokeeptheminformedaboutwhatishappeningaroundtheworld.Wespecialisein:•CountryAnalysis:Accesstoregular,detailedcountry-specificeconomicandpoliticalforecasts,aswellasassessmentsofthebusinessandregulatoryenvironmentsindifferentmarkets.•RiskAnalysis:Ourriskservicesidentifyactualandpotentialthreatsaroundtheworldandhelpourclientsunderstandtheimplicationsfortheirorganisations.•IndustryAnalysis:Fiveyearforecasts,analysisofkeythemesandnewsanalysisforsixkeyindustriesin60majoreconomies.Theseforecastsarebasedonthelatestdataandin-depthanalysisofindustrytrends.EIUConsultingEIUConsultingisabespokeservicedesignedtoprovidesolutionsspecifictoourcustomers’needs.Wespecialiseinthesekeysectors:•EIUConsumer:Wehelpconsumer-facingcompaniestoenternewmarketsaswellasdelivergreatersuccessincurrentmarkets.Weworkglobally,supportingseniormanagementwithstrategicinitiatives,M&Aduediligence,demandforecastingandotherissuesoffundamentalimportancetotheircorporations.Findoutmoreateiu.com/consumer•Healthcare:Togetherwithourtwospecialisedconsultancies,BazianandClearstate,TheEIUhelpshealthcareorganisationsbuildandmaintainsuccessfulandsustainablebusinessesacrossthehealthcareecosystem.Findoutmoreat:eiu.com/healthcare•PublicPolicy:Trustedbythesector’smostinfluentialstakeholders,ourglobalpublicpolicypracticeprovidesevidence-basedresearchforpolicy-makersandstakeholdersseekingclearandmeasurableoutcomes.Findoutmoreat:eiu.com/publicpolicyTheEconomistCorporateNetworkTheEconomistCorporateNetwork(ECN)isTheEconomistGroup’sadvisoryservicefororganisationalleadersseekingtobetterunderstandtheeconomicandbusinessenvironmentsofglobalmarkets.Deliveringindependent,thought-provokingcontent,ECNprovidesclientswiththeknowledge,insight,andinteractionthatsupportbetter-informedstrategiesanddecisions.TheNetworkispartofTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitandisledbyexpertswithin-depthunderstandingofthegeographiesandmarketstheyoversee.TheNetwork’smembership-basedoperationscoverAsia-Pacific,theMiddleEast,andAfrica.Throughadistinctiveblendofinteractiveconferences,speciallydesignedevents,C-suitediscussions,memberbriefings,andhigh-calibreresearch,TheEconomistCorporateNetworkdeliversarangeofmacro(global,regional,national,andterritorial)aswellasindustry-focusedanalysisonprevailingconditionsandforecasttrends.INDUSTRIESIN2019ASPECIALREPORTFROMTHEECONOMISTINTELLIGENCEUNIT©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited20181Overview2Automotivein2019:Supplyshocks5Globalautomotive:Emissioncritical82019calendar:Automotive9Consumergoodsandretailin2019:Sellingshort11Chinaretail:Dimminghopes142019calendar:Consumergoods15Energyin2019:TheIraneffect17Globalrenewables:Gradualgreening202019calendar:Energy21Financialservicesin2019:Biggerbuffers24UKfinance:BrexitandtheCity272019calendar:Financialservices28Healthcarein2019:Healthchecks30US-China:Medtechrivals332019calendar:Healthcareandpharmaceuticals35Telecomsin2019:Arewesecure?37Indiatelecoms:Amarketunderstress402019calendar:Telecoms41ContentsINDUSTRIESIN2019ASPECIALREPORTFROMTHEECONOMISTINTELLIGENCEUNIT©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited20182OverviewTheworld'smajorindustriesareallsetforfurthergrowthin2019,buttherearesomeworryingrisks.Twoyearsago,whenTheEconomistIntelligenceUnitissuedIndustriesin2017,wepredictedthattheelectionofDonaldTrumpasUSpresidentinNovember2016couldbringhugechangesforglobalbusiness.Wewerenotwrong.ThiseditionofourannualreportdiscussesthechangesthatMrTrump'spolicies—andotherglobaltrends—havealreadybroughttosixindustrysectors:automotive,consumergoodsandretailing,energy,financialservices,healthcare,andtelecoms.Andwelookaheadtothechallengesfacingthesebusinessesin2019.Thisreporthighlightsfivemajorrisksthatcouldaffectourindustryforecastsfortheyearahead.TheUS-Chinatradewar:wehavecutour2019growthforecastsfortheautomotiveandconsumer-goodssectorsinparticularcomparedwithsixmonthsago.Aglobalslowdown:eventhosecountriesnotdirectlyaffectedbygrowingtradebarrierscouldbevulnerabletoachangeinbusinessconfidencein2019,withthemostlikelyimpactbeingonemergingmarkets.Brexit:theUK'sexitfromtheEUinMarch2019willbeadragonsectorsincludingfinancialservices,automotiveandhealthcare,regardlessofanydealthatisstruck.SanctionsonIran:theUS'sdecisiontobacktrackfromtheinternationalJointComprehensivePlanofActioncouldpushupglobaloilpricesin2019.Cybersecuri