麦格理印度宏观经济宏观数据全面增长内需保持健康2018022116页

Pleaserefertopage14forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite(Jan-18vsDec-17)Source:CEIC,GoI,MacquarieResearch,February2018*IPcurrentmonthisDec-17andpreviousisNov-17#CADcurrentisforQESep-17,previousisQEJun-17Analyst(s)[e-mail]21February2018MacquarieCapitalSecurities(India)Pvt.Ltd.IndiaEconomicsMacrodataround-up–domesticdemandremainshealthyInthismonthlypublicationweendeavourtoprovideaone-stopshopforallkeymacrodatareleasesinthemonth,alongwithachartpackofkeymacroindicatorstotrack.Growthindicators:CyclicalrecoveryindomesticdemandDomesticdemandindicatorsfaredbetterthanexternaldemand:Highfrequencydomesticdemandindicatorscontinuetoshowhealthygrowthinthelastthreemonthssuggestingthatgrowthrecoveryisgatheringmomentum.Consumptionindicatorssuchascarsales,petrolconsumption,retailloangrowthandairpassengertrafficacceleratedinJanManufacturingindicatorsremainedrobust–IPgrowthforDecwasaboveexpectations.PMImanufacturingforJanremainedabove50forthesixthconsecutivemonths,butitmoderatedfromthefive-yearhighreachedinDec.Cementproductiongrowthremainedindoubledigitsforthesecondconsecutivemonth.LightcommercialvehiclesalesgrowthacceleratedtothehighestsinceMar-2010.Servicesindicatorstooimproved–PMIservicesexpandedinJan,whileotherindicatorssuchasrailandseaportcargocontinuedtoimprove.ExportgrowthslowsinJan:ExportgrowthslippedtosingledigitsinJan,growingby9.1%YoY(vs.12.5%YoYinDec).Lacklustrenon\-commodityexportgrowthmainlycausedtheslowdowningrowth–withsegmentssuchasgems&jewellery,textiles,electronicgoodscontributingtotheslowdown.Macrostability:WideningatthemarginTradedeficitwidenstoa56-monthhigh:ThetradedeficitwidenedtoUS$16.3bn(8.1%ofGDPannualised)inJanfromUS$14.8bn(7.4%ofGDPannualised)inDecasimportsrosefasterthanexports.ThehigherthanexpectedtradedeficitinJanputsupwardpressureonthecurrentaccountdeficitforFY18–weexpecttheCADtowidento1.8-2%ofGDPvs.ourearlierestimateof1.6%ofGDPinFY18.InflationmoderatedinJan,butCPIstillabovethe5%mark:JanCPImoderatedto5.1%(5.2%inDec)withfoodpricesdecelerating.JanWPIinflationdeceleratedto2.8%from3.6%inDec,withbothfoodandnon-foodsegmentsmoderating.OutlookGradualrecoverykeepingmacrostabilityincheck:Weexpectthegrowthrecoverytograduallygatherpace,andweexpectGDPgrowthat7.2%inFY19efrom6.7%inFY18e.Weexpectconsumption,publiccapexandexportstobethemaindriversevenasprivatecapexremainsinrepairmode.InflationisexpectedtoedgehigheruntilJun-18,partlyduetoalowbase.WeexpecttheRBItotakeintotheaccounttheidiosyncraticfactorsimpactinginflationandastill-nascentgrowthrecovery,whichshouldkeepthecentralbankonhold.Plsseethefollowingpagesforheatmaptablesandcharts.MacquarieResearchIndiaEconomics21February20182HighfrequencygrowthindicatorsandmacrostabilityindictorsFig1Highfrequencygrowthdata(greenhighlightistop10percentileandredhighlightisbottom10percentile)Source:CEIC,PPAC,RBI,MacquarieResearch,February2018Fig2Highfrequencymacrostabilityindicators(redhighlightistop10percentileandgreenhighlightisbottom10percentile–i.e.greenshowsimprovementinmacrostability,redshowsdeteriorationinmacrostability)Source:CEIC,Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,February2018MacquarieResearchIndiaEconomics21February20183GrowthIndicatorsA.IndustrialProductionTrendinIP(YoY%,YoY%3MMA)Industrialproductionrose7.1%inJan:Thiscomparestoagrowthof8.8%inNov.Onaseasonallyadjustedsequentialbasis,theIPindexdeclinedby2.4%comparedtogrowthof6.3%MoMinNov.NominalIPgrowth(adjustedfornon-foodWPI)remainedonanuptrendonatrailingthreemonthaveragebasis.Whilegrowthofcapitalgoodsandelectricityproductionimproved,growthofmanufacturing,mining,constructionandconsumergoodsproductionslowedinDec.Onathree-monthtrailingbasis,growthacceleratedto6%inDecvs.5.0%forthethreemonthsendingNov.Source:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018B.ExportGrowthTrendinexportgrowthExportgrowthslipstosingle-digitlevels:Exportgrowthslowedto9.1%YoYinJanfrom12.5%YoYinDec.Theslowdowninexportswasmainlyattributabletoapoorerperformanceinnon-commodityexports.Whilecommodityexportgrowthroseto23.9%inJan(21.6%inDec),non-commodityexportgrowthdeceleratedto4.6%(from9.8%inDec).Withinnon-commodityexports,theslowdownwasattributabletoaweakertrendinexportsofgems&jewellery,textiles,leather,electronicgoodsandengineeringgoods.Wewillbecloselywatchingthetrendinnon-commodityexportsasdespiteahealthyglobalgrowthenvironment,non-commodityexportshaveremainedvolatile,inpartduetothelingeringimpactofGST-relateddisruptions(i.e.issuesoftaxcreditrefundshaveimpactedexporters’workingcapital).Source:CEIC,MacquarieResearch,February2018C.ImportGrowthTrendinimportgrowthImportgrowthacceleratedtoaneight-monthhighinJan:Importgrowthacceleratedto26.1%YoYinJanfrom21%YoYinDec,ledbyhigheroilandnon-oilnon-goldimports.GoldimportsdeclinedonaYoYbasis.OilimportgrowthacceleratedonYoYandsequentialmonthlybasesreflectinginparttheimpactoftrailinghigheroilprices.Non-oilnon-goldimportgrowthacceleratedinJanwiththevolatilecapitalgoodsimportsaccelerating.Commodityimp