瑞信亚太地区科技行业亚洲硬件反馈需求下降201891368页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.13September2018AsiaPacific/JapanEquityResearchTechnologyTechnologysectorC[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail](Hardware):Demandslumping;expectationshighforimagesensorsontriplecameraspickingup■Summary:Weconductedourregularsurveyofhardware,semiconductor,display,andelectroniccomponentdemandinKorea,China,andTaiwanfromlateAugustthroughearlySeptember.DemandhasweakenedanotchformajorITequipment.Triple-camerasmartphonesmaystarttoappearinearnestin2019.JapaneseMLCCsremaintight.■Focuspointsinhardware(productionplans):(1)WeforecastCY18iPhoneproductionvolumebyquarterasfollows:54mnunitsinJan–Mar,39mninApr–Jun,58mninJul–Sep,and71mninOct–Dec.WeexpectCY18productiontototal222mnunits(−4%YoY).Comparedwithourprevioussurvey,productionplansarereviseddownforoldermodels.Withnomajorchangesinproductionplansfornew2018models,weforecast30mnunitsinJul–Sepand57mninOct–Decforatotalof87mnnewmodels.WeexpectmassproductionofLCDmodelstostartfrommid-September.Ourbasicstanceisthat50%ofnewmodelswillfeatureLCDscreens.(2)TherearenomajorchangesfromthelastsurveywithregardtoSamsungElectronicsCY18smartphoneproductionvolumes.Weexpectmomentumtoaccelerateformulti-camerasmartphonesinCY19.(3)Wenowestimate3%YoYgrowthinproductionvolumeofChinesesmartphonesinCY18.WebelieveproductionvolumeswillincreaseoverallatthefourmajormanufacturersinChina,drivenbyHuawei,buttheotherthreeareunlikelytogreatlyexceedproductionplansforJul–SepandOct–Dec.■Focalpointsinindividualcomponents:(1)SupplyofMLCCsisbeingprioritizedtomajorcustomersfirstamidweakhardwaredemand,andalthoughprocurementisnotaproblemformajorhardwaremakers,Tier2andlowercustomerscontinuetohaveahardtimesecuringsupplies.Amajorsmartphonemakercommentedthatthereisanever-endingshortageofMLCCs.(2)InCIS,thetrendistowardmultiplecamerasandlargerdies.In2019,planscallfor190mntriple-cameraunits.(3)AlthoughAIandDeepLearninghavetoneddownsomewhat,customershaveproposedthatFC-BGAsubstratemakersraisepricessothattheycanexpandcapacityamidtightsupply.(4)SuppliesofpowerMOSFETandIGBTremaintight.(5)CapacityofDRAMandNANDcontinuestoincreaseashighcapacityiskeytoexpandingsales.Flagshipmodelsin2019couldcomewithasmuchas10–12GBinDRAM.■Stockcalls:Intheelectronicpartssector,ourtoppicksareMurataMfg(6981)andTaiyoYuden(6976),whichweexpecttoraisepricesfrom2019amidtightsupply.IniPhone-relatedstocks,werecommendMinebeaMitsumi(6479)foritshighratioofcomponentsforLCDmodels.Overthelongerterm,wealsolikeNidec(6594)andRohm(6963),thoughitdependsonshort-termcatalysts.Inthesemiconductorsector,theshifttohighermemorycapacitysmartphoneshasbeenfasterthanexpected,butsupplyissueshaveresultedinsteadilyworseningsupply-demandconditions.AmidstthesemarketconditionsweareforcedtotakeacautiousstanceonNANDandSPEstocks.IntheCIS/panelsector,theshifttomulti-cameramodelsandlargerdiesizesshouldbetailwindsfortheCISbusinessatSony(6758).13September2018Technologysector2TableofcontentsOverview3Demandweakensfurther.Weexpect2018iPhoneoutputtofallYoY,butJan–Mar2019couldcomeinstrongdependingonnewiPhones’prices.Triple-camerasetsmayappearin2019.MLCCsremaintight................................................................3Stockimplicationsfromhardwareproductiontrends...............................................5Smartphoneproductiontrend10Demandremainsweak;smartphonecameraspecupgradestoacceleratein2019;newiPhonescouldoutperformifpricesallow........................................................10iPhoneproduction:IncreasinglikelihoodthatoutputwillbelowerinCY18thaninCY17,butvolumecouldbestronginJan-Mardependingonsalesofnewmodels...............................................................................................................................13SamsungElectronicssmartphoneproductiontrend:hasteningup-spec'ingin2019models,especiallywithrespecttocameras...........................................................20Chinesesmartphoneproductiontrend...................................................................28Outlookfor5GservicesinChina52Ourviewfollowingthesurvey................................................................................52Others(PC,TabletPC,AppleWatch,Switch)53Tablets...................................................................................................................53PCproductionvolume............................................................