瑞信亚太地区科技行业亚洲科技硬件行业尚无复苏迹象全面反弹可能出现在明年春季之后201961276页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.12June2019AsiaPacific/JapanEquityResearchTechnologyTechnology[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail](Hardware):Nosignsofrecovery;full-scalereboundlikelyafternextspring■Summary:WeconductedourperiodicsurveyoftheKorean,TaiwaneseandChinesetechmarketsinlateMay–earlyJune.TheinventoryadjustmentinthegreaterChinaareanotedinourprevioussurveystillshowsnosignofabating.Indeed,theprolongedUS–ChinatradewarandsanctionsagainstHuaweihavecloudedtheoutlookfurther.Withinventoryadjustmentstartingtoextendtoautomotivedevices—chieflyingreaterChina—sentimentamongsalesagentsanddevicemakershasweakenedfurther,andwiththeinventoryadjustmentthatstartedinSeptember2018beingprolongedbypolitics,somerespondentstellustheycannotmakeouttheroadahead.WhileothersanticipaterecoveryfromJul−Sep,thisissomewhatoptimisticinourview.Inthesmartphonearena,productionadjustmentatHuaweisuggestsmomentumheadingintothesecondhalfoftheyearislikelytobefarweakerthantheseasonalnorm.■Focalpointsinhardwareanddevices:(1)Huaweihasdowngradedits2019productionplanfrom300mnto240mnhandsets(140mnin1H,100mnin2H),withproductiontargetsslashedbyaround35%fromJuly.(2)WeexpectiPhoneproductiontorisefrom37mnhandsetsinJan–Marto38mninApr–Jun,59mninJul–Sep(including31mnnewmodelhandsets)and69mninOct–Dec(48mn),foratotalof203mn(79mn)in2019asawhole.(3)SmartphoneproductionatSamsungremainsoncoursetoreach290mnhandsetsovertheyear,butthesanctionsagainstHuaweicouldpushthistoaround300mn,chieflythroughincreasedoutputofmidrangeASeriesphones.(4)Makerscontinuetoupgradecameramodulespecsandaresettointroduce64MPand108MPsensorsin2020asupgradesto48MPresolution.(5)Virtuallynocomponentsareintightsupply,withconditionsmostfavorableforCMOSimagesensors(CIS).■Stockcalls:Weremaincautiousonelectroniccomponents.Webelievetherisktoearningsguidancefromdrawn-outinventoryadjustmenthaslargelybeendiscountedinshareprices.However,weexpectsharepricestoremainvolatileduetopoliticalnewsflowanddeemittooearlytobuyonweakness.Componentmakersmaybeforcedtoadjustproductionandlowercapacityutilizationifinventoryadjustmentisfurtherprolonged,increasingtherisktotheirearnings.Overthemediumterm,westillfavormanufacturersofMLCCsandanalogpowersemiconductors,whichshouldbenefitfromvehicleelectrification.Nearterm,however,wepreferdefensiveplayslikeKyocera(6971)andNidec(6594).Inthetelecomsequipmentsector,werecommendAnritsu,whichshouldbenefitfromexpediteddevelopmentofsystem-on-chips(SoCs)combiningapplicationprocessorsand5Gmodemsformid-marketsmartphones,with5Gsmartphoneoutputlikelytosurgein2020.Inthememory&SPEsectors,NANDinventoriesshouldpeakoutasmakersrespondtoweaksmartphonedemandfor512GBand256GBdensities.However,weremaincautiousonthesesectors,asmarketconditionsapparentlymakeinventorysurplusesunavoidable,andthereisasriskoflossesonserverDRAM,withweakfinaldemand.Sony(6758)isstillourtoppickinconsumerelectronics.WeanticipatesustainedgrowthinconsolidatedprofitsdrivenbyrisingsalesofCIS.12June2019Technologysector2KeychartsFigure1:Globalsmartphoneoutput(quarterly)Figure2:Chinesemakersmartphoneoutput(quarterly)Source:CreditSuisseestimatesSource:CreditSuisseestimatesFigure3:iPhonequarterlyoutputprojections(asofMarch,April,May,June2019)Source:CreditSuisseestimates-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0501001502002503003504004505001Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2QE3QE4QECY2013CY2014CY2015CY2016CY2017CY2018CY2019mnunitsChinaSmartphonesSamsungSmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCiPhoneproductionCY17CY18CY19FY3/18FY3/19asofmnunits1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1QE2QE3QE4QE1Q2QE3QE4QE1Q2QE3QE4QE1Q2QE3QE4QE19/6iPhone5s/5c/4s2000000000NANA000NA000NA000020000iPhoneSE2444422000NANA000NA000NA00001370154iPhone62755622000NANA000NA000NA000019110235iPhone6plus0000000000NANANANA000000000iPhone6s4422311453NANA422NA422NA4220121081211iPhone6sPlus1221111121NANA110NA110NA110074374iPhone71613109333343NANA543NA543NA54434913163515iPhone7Plus161164221111NANA121NA111NA11113764235iPhone80010199118865NANA644NA644NA64452836193732iPhone8Plus0010161197532NANA311NA311NA3212263173723iPhoneX000371284410NANA110NA110NA1100372824818iPhoneXR0000003281214NANA101510NA101013NA1015119-3144041iPhoneXS00000011933NANA341NA352NA3422-1911022iPhoneXSMax000000141333NANA351NA342NA3520-2711030iPhoneXIR00000000NANANANA0011NA0015NA001524--3900iPhoneXI00000000NANANANA015NA007NA00710--1700iPhoneXIMax00000000NAN