瑞信日本科技行业亚洲硬件反馈这个季节樱花数量有限201921371页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.13March2019AsiaPacific/JapanEquityResearchTechnologyTechnologysectorC[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail](Hardware):Limitedcherryblossomsthisseason■Summary:WeconductedourperiodicsurveyoftheKorean,TaiwaneseandChinesetechmarketsinlateFeb–earlyMar.ThesalesandorderadjustmentsinGreaterChinanotedinourprevioussurveyshownosignofrecoveryevenaftertheLunarNewYear,andend-demandremainsweak.Withsales-agentanddevice-makersentimentcoolingoff,weseelimitedvisibilityforrecoveryfrom2H.Ofthesmartphone-relatednamescaughtupintheUS-Chinatradefriction,wethinkonlyHuaweiwillprevail,owingtoChinesegovernmentsubsidies.DespiteSamsung’srolloutoftheGalaxyS10andA-series,weexpectsluggishnesselsewhere—atotherChinesemakersandfortheiPhone.Huaweiisexpeditingdeviceprocurement,includingforbasestations,inviewofbrisksmartphonesalesandtheriskoftheUSgovernmentblockingthesupplyofsuchpartsinitsongoingtradedisputewithChina.■Focalpointsinhardwareanddevices:(1)Huaweishipped23.5mnsmartphonesinJanuaryandlookssettoproduceover60mnunitsinJan–Mar2019(55–56mninOct–Dec2018).Thecompanyraisedits2019targetto260–270mn,butpartsprocurementmaypeakin1Q.OtherChinesesmartphonemakersarelikelytoremaininaslump.(2)WeexpectiPhoneoutputtorisefrom37mnunitsinJan–Mar2019(−22%YoY,−45%QoQ)to45mninApr–Jun(+21%,+13%).However,devicemakersprojectjustunder40mnforApr–Junand180–190mn(−15%YoY)for2019.(3)Samsungprojectsannualoutputof280–290mnunitsbutGalaxyS10outputlooksontracktohit40mn,toppingtheinitialtarget(35mn),andA-seriesoutputisupsharplysinceMarch.(4)Makerscontinuetoupgradecamera-modulespecsandmayintroduce64MPand108MPsensorsin2020asupgradesto48MPresolutions.(5)Componentsintightsupplyincludehigh-endbase-stationandautomotiveMLCCs,powersemiconductorsandCMOSimagesensors(CIS)(especiallylow-resolutionones)owingtomulti-camerasmartphones.■Stockcalls:Intheelectronicscomponentssector,wemaintainourcautiousstance.WestillfavorMurata(6981)andTaiyoYuden(6976),whichshouldbenefitinthemediumtermfromgrowthinMLCC,andNidec(6594)andRohm(6963),whichshouldgainfromvehicleelectrification.However,weseeagrowingriskofmanycomponentsmakersinitiallyguidingforFY3/20profitdeterioration,withafewexceptionssuchasKyocera(6971)andNidecwhereone-timeissuesshouldend.Inthesemiconductor/SPEsector,totalhardwareproductionvolumeisstilltrendinglowerYoY,andutilizationratesatTaiwanesefoundriesremainlackluster.Wethusexpectcompaniesthatdependonhighoperatingrate-linkeddemand(suchasDisco(6146),TokyoSeimitsu(7729),Towa(6315),SUMCO(3436)andShin-EtsuChemical(4063))willcontinuetofaceadifficultbusinessenvironment.Wealsoseenosignsofanyturnaroundinmemoryprices.Weaccordinglymaintainourcautiousinvestmentstanceonthesemiconductor/SPEsector.Further,wethinkHDD-relatedstocksarealsofacingincreasinglychallengingconditionsin2019,asPCsareincreasinglylikelytocomewithSSDs.Intheconsumerelectronicssector,wecontinuetorecommendSony(6758)forongoingprofitgrowthinCIS.13March2019Technologysector2KeychartsFigure1:Globalsmartphoneoutput(quarterly)Figure2:Chinesemakersmartphoneoutput(quarterly)102020302040506060758510010312913513913016015516016518318819815216518618415318119517215317318618811202837445158637179888687778074827082848176757980808774787071707176707121182033342724593328376032285080586055754041578843405097514057743745456214191816121515161519161616212223192019201718171817151515121110119999534649534137434440444445414857635358586043504756424141403535353530303030-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0501001502002503003504004505001Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q183Q181Q19E3Q19EmnunitsChinaSmartphonesSamsungSmartphonesiPhoneLGE/HTCOthersYOY%Chg.1020203020405060607585100103129135139130160155160165183188198152165186184153181195172153173186188-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002501Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q19EmnunitsSmartphoneproductionbyChinesemakersyoy%chg.Source:CreditSuisseestimatesSource:CreditSuisseestimatesFigure3:iPhonequarterlyoutputprojections(asofend-Nov2018,Jan2019,Mar2019)iPhoneproductionCY17CY18FY3/18FY3/19CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019CY2018CY2019mnunits1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3QE4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4QE1QE1Q2Q3Q4Q1QE2QEiPhone5s/5c/4s1.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.01.80.00.00.0iPhoneSE1.83.73.93.93.81.52.10.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.03.81.52.10.00.00.013.47.415.4