瑞信美股IT硬件行业IT硬件进入云的刚刚好时代201941195页

1DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CreditSuisseEquityResearch–AmericasITHardwareInitiationEnteringtheGoldilocksEraofCloudApril11th,2019RESEARCHANALYSTSMattCabralDanielKnauffMichael[e-mail]@[e-mail]2ITHardwareCoverageOverview4Outperforms,1Underperform,4NeutralsMattCabral|415-249-7929|[e-mail]tingMktCapTargetPriceUpside/DownsideOneLinerIBMInternationalBusinessMachinesOutperform$129bn$17322%IBMandRedHatcreateapowerfulcombinationtoacceleratehybridcloudadoption;wesee10%FCFaccretionwithin3yearsNTAPNetAppOutperform$19bn$8922%Multipleleverstoupside,withtailwindsfromall-flashmixandaServicesinflectioncoupledwithopexleverageCDWCDWCorp.Outperform$15bn$11715%Long-term,secularsharegainstoryvs.USITSpending,withanaddedkickerfromInternational;55%CFROIXRXXeroxOutperform$14bn$4226%Earlyinamulti-yearmarginexpansionandFCFstory;significantleverstoboththatareunderappreciatedbymarketHPEHewlettPackardEnterpriseUnderperform$33bn$14-12%FadingITSpendingtailwindsreturnfocustobuildingrisksonlargest(Compute)andhighest-margin(Pointnext)segmentsAAPLAppleNeutral$952bn$2095%ThepushtomonetizeApple’sinstalledbasethroughServicesholdspotential,butwilltaketimetoshiftinvestorperceptionvs.double-digitiPhonedeclinesandatapeakP/EmultipleDELLDellTechnologiesNeutral$46bn$655%SolidexecutioninCY18,buthighleverageleaveslittleroomforerrorandconstrainscapitalallocationforyearstocomeHPQHPInc.Neutral$31bn$217%Suppliesakeyconcernfollowingthedisappointinginventoryreset;steadyasshegoesonPCsharegainsandFCFPSTGPureStorageNeutral$6bn$230%Technologicalleaderinall-flash,butadvantagevs.peersnarrowingandlong-termprofitabilitygoalsstillawaysoffSource:CreditSuisseResearch,FactSet3ITHardwareCoverageOverviewLinkstoourfullcompanyreportsMattCabral|415-249-7929|[e-mail]:CreditSuisseResearchOutperform:InternationalBusinessMachines(IBM):ALandmarkShiftontheJourneytoHybrid;Outperform,TP$173NetApp(NTAP):HybridWinnerwithMultipleLeverstoUpside;Outperform,TP$89CDWCorp(CDW):SMB,ShareGains,andInternational;Outperform,TP$117Xerox(XRX):EarlyintheMulti-YearMargin/FCFStory;Outperform,TP$42Underperform:HewlettPackardEnterprise(HPE):FocusonComputeandPointnextasRisksBuild;Underperform,TP$14Neutral:AppleInc.(AAPL):ServicesPotentialvs.iPhoneMaturation;Neutral,TP$209DellTechnologies(DELL):HighLeverageLeavesLittleRoomforError;Neutral,TP$65HPInc.(HPQ):It’sAllAbouttheSupplies;Neutral,TP$21PureStorage(PSTG):PureAll-Flash,ButAdvantageNarrowing,Neutral,TP$234IndustryViewsataGlanceMattCabral|415-249-7929|[e-mail]:CreditSuisseResearchKeyThemeOurViewHowtoParticipateEnteringtheGoldilocksEraofCloud;Hybridis“JustRight”Hybridcriticalaspublic/privatedebatereachesequilibrium•Customersarebeginningtorethinktheircloudstrategy,astheylooktomodernizeincreasinglymission-criticalworkloads;vastmajorityhave“repatriated”someapplicationsfrompubliccloud•Ahybrid-firstapproachbringstogetherthebestofbothworlds;customersgettheagilityandflexibilityofthepubliccloud,whileintegratingwiththe80%ofworkloadsthathaveyettomigrate•Enablingconsistencyacrosson-premiseandoff-premisewillbekeytovendorsuccessOutperform•IBM•NTAPUnderperform•HPEDataCenterFavoredvs.Client-FacingEndMarketsWepreferexposuretodatacenterspending•WefavorStorage,withaparticularemphasisonthehigh-growthall-flashmarket(+17%CAGR,CY18-CY21E)•Serversshouldbenefitlong-termfromrisingvalueofdata,butfacenear-termheadwindsfrom’18over-shipandfallingDRAM•PCs&Smartphonesarematureandlargelydrivenbyreplacementdemand.Printers&TabletsareinseculardeclineOutperform•NTAPNeutral•PSTG•DELLTideRecedingAfterStrongInvestmentCycleinCY18Slowingendmarketgrowthbringsfocusbacktocompany-specificfactors•2018wasarobustITspendingenvironment,drivenbyasolidmacroeconomicbackdropandUScorporatetaxreform•Theupgradecyclewasevidentacrosson-premisehardware,asthependulumswungbackfrompubliccloud•Weexpectthetidetorecedein2019,supportedbytheCreditSuisseCIOSurveyOutperform•IBM•NTAP•CDW•XRXUnderperform•HPE5ExecutiveSummaryMattCabral|415-249-7929|[e-mail]9ITHardwarecompanieswiththefollowingratings:Outperform:IBM(IBM),NetApp(NTAP),CDW(CDW),andXerox(XRX)Underperform:HewlettPackardEnterprise(HPE)Neutral:Apple(AAPL),DellTechnologies(DELL),HPInc.(HPQ),andPureStorage(PSTG)IndustryViewEnteringtheGoldilocksEraofCloud;Hybridis“JustRight.”WefirmlybelieveHybridCloudarchitecturesrepresentthefutureofenterpriseIT.Ahybrid-firstapproachallowscustomerstotakeadvantageof