搜索
2…………………………………………………………………1………………………..3…………………………………....3……………………………………………………..5………………………………………………….6…………………………………….7……………………………………………….7…………….93………………………..91.................................................102…………………………………..113…………………………..124.…………………………..14…………………………………………………...15………………………………………...17……………………………171.……172.………...193.………214.……………………………….234………………………..31……………...33…………………………………………………………………36……………………………………………………………37()()1234234520106789300003000112001P11261020%10%,5%1/31130001WTO----1200112P6312,131119961114abcd11521016317,a)b)1819a)20b)c)2112.5%20%221985-199875.2%3/41410.43-0.601119953P5231995-200080.12%79.12%2124232543201%261198011985-1998119850.1719890.9219930.5019970.7619860.3319900.8219940.3719980.7019870.6219910.8019950.5719880.6919920.6919960.7019891985-198919891997-1998119962P102744.1284.1.11993-1994199319941994292219312940194039404940594109412/1580150015801620164023402900/161016281583156016052358-30-128-3-6035-1819941500/102340/122900/1628/102358/11993-19941994P563020%4.1.23132333435366.53717%3%38391992-1995111995122640411.ManferdE.Streit,FuturesMarkets,BasilBlackwellPublisher,19832.BarryGross,FuturesMarkets:TheirEstablishmentandPerformance,19863.J19904.19975.19996.19997.19958.20009.20013P11410.4219961111.19953P512.20014P11432010..44...:45....:12.4634,47THESISABSTRACTItisalreadyovertenyearssinceFutureMarkethasbeenestablishedinChinaasanexperimentalfieldinChina’snationaleconomy.LookingbacktothewholegrowingperiodofChina’sFutureMarket,wecaneasilyfindonephenomenonthemorefutureitemsaretested,thelessareleft;themorearetested,thesmallerandpettierareleft.Thenumberoffutureitemshasbeenreducedfromover20atthebeginningtoless10now.Someoriginalstapleitemssuchassteelproduct,rice,petroleumandyellowmaizehasbeencancelledfromFutureMarketoneafteranother.Onlythosewhichcoordinatewellwiththeinternationalmarketsuchascopper,aluminium,soybeanetchasbeenleft.Theotherpettyitemshavebeenspeculatedbyidlefundstosuchanawardsituationthattheycannotplaytheirroleashedgingandprice-finding.AsaresultthehedgerswilleitherhavetobeawayfromFutureMarketonaccountoffacinganotherkindofriskortheywillbeinvolvedinrisksarisingfromthespotmarketon48accountofhavingnorelativeitemsinFutureMarket.ByconsiderationofChina’smacroeconomicfunction,wecanfindthattointroduceandresumesomestaplefutureitemsatapropertimehasbecomeaninevitabletrend.Theaimofthisthesisistoprobeintothenecessityandfeasibilityonsomestapleitems’reentrytoChina’sFutureMarketandtherelativepoliciesthatshouldbetaken.Infirstpart,inaccordancewiththepresentsituationofChina’sfuturemarketandChina’seconomicconditionthethesisdiscussesthenecessityofsomestapleitems’entrytoChina’sFutureMarketin5parts:a.stapleitems’entrytoFutureMarketcanhelpchangethepresentdisadvantageoussituationofChina’FutureMarketthattoomuchidlefundshaveflowedintotheMarket;b.stapleitems’entrytoFutureMarketistheneedofoptimizingourcountry’smacroeconomicenvironment;c.stapleitems’entrytoFutureMarketcanhelpChina’FutureMarkettoreachmaturityinanhealthydirection;d.stapleitems’entrytoFutureMarketisanecessaryneedforChina’sentrytotheinternationalmarket;e.stapleitems’entrytoFutureMarketis49aneffectivewayforChina’seconomicgrowingtransformation.Insecondpart,onthebasisofthespotmarketandfuturemarketthethesisdiscussesthatthepresentconditionsaresuitableforstapleitems’entrytoFutureMarket.Ononehand,China’FutureMarkethasbeengrowinginrightdirectionofmaturitywhichisreflectedinfoursides:a.dealersarebecomingmature;b.theexperimentalfutureitemsaregrowingmature;c.thenormalstandardofFutureExchangeshasbeengreatlyimproved;d.thesupervisingorganizationandsystemhavebeenremarkablyimproved.Ontheotherhand,China’seconomicdevelopmenthaspreparedasolidbasisforstapleitems’entrytoFutureMarket.Nextcomesthecentralpartofthethesis.Inthispartthethesisgiveadetaileddiscussiononthechoiceofstaplefutureitems.Theauthordividesthestaplefutureitemsintostapleagriculturalproductsandstaplenon-agriculturalproductsandmakeshisdemonstrationrespectively.Agriculturalproductsbelongtoprimaryproductswhicharequitesuitabletobethefutureitemsfortheirseasonalproduction,yearlydemandand50pricefluctuation.Butthedemandforstapleagriculturalproductsarebroughtforwardnotonlybythecausesconcerningwiththesystemofagriculturalmarketdevelopmentbutalsobythebarrelsthatexistinagriculturalmarketdevelopment.Thesebarrelsincludeseriouspricefluctuationinagriculturalmarket,contradictionsthatareagainstwithagriculturalmacro-adjustingandcontrollingaims,theweakeningtrendofpriceelasticityinagriculturalmarketetc.Theanalysesontheabovecausesprovethattointroduceandresumesomestaplefutureitemsatapropertimehasbecomeaninevitabletrend.Tocontinue,referringtotheseyears’practicalworkingexperience,theauthormakessomestatementsonthechoiceofstapleagriculturalfutureitemsandgivesafulldiscussiononrice,yellowandcotton.Inthepartofnon-agriculturalproducts,theauthordiscussesthereasonsthatsteelissuitabletoreentertheFutureMarket.Finally,thethesisdiscussessomesuggestionsonthepoliciesthatshouldbetakenforstapleitems’entryintoChina’sFutureMarket:1Thosestapleite