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EVA3(361005):,EVA(EconomicValueAdded,),EVA(EPSROE),EVA,;EVA(EPSROE);,EPSROE:EVA3,,:,,,,1970CorporateChoiceamongLong2termFinancialInstruments,,Taggart,R.A.;;,Titman&Wessels1988,8,Titman&Wessels(1995),1993719943A,(CAPM),P,BETAP(1996),,(1998),1996(AB),74200411©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,(P)()(P)(P),OLS:;1996,();;(2000)199319951997,(P)()(),:,19931995,(2000)19951997,(1998),,,,(P),,,,(2004)19952001,,,,:,:,,,(2001)(2002),:(1),,,;,,,,(2),,,,(3),(2004),,EVA,,EVA,,EVA,EVA,84:EVA©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,EVA:()EVAEVA,,(),Stewart,,EVA,(),,()EVAEVA,,,,,EVA:,;,,,,EVA,EVA()EVAEVA:EVA=NOPAT-TCC%EVA,,EVA,,,,()EVAEVA(),EVA,,,EVA,EVA,:1:EVA,StewartEVA,,,EVA,,,(EPS)(ROE):94200411(2004):,©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2:EVAEPSROE,70,EVAEPSROE(paneldata),(,2000,132),,,:yit=i+xi(t-m)i+ui(t-m),yit,,;xitEVAEPSROE;M,m=0,1,2...;ui(t-m)LDAR(LongDebtstoAssetsRatio)CLAR(CurrentLiabilitiestoAssetsRatio)TLAR(TotalLiabilitiestoAssetsRatio),EVAEVA,EVAEVAEVAEPSROE(),,P,1998:(1)STPT;(2)19982002EPSROE,,590;(3)19982002EPSROE221199820025(http:PP)(http:PP)(http:PP)(http:PP)(http:PP)(http:PP)1999(3435)(CSMAR)111EVAEPSROELDARCLARTLAR-0.0045450.1776140.0644190.0560850.3970840.453622-0.0087000.1860000.0722900.0222690.3836740.4440850.1129540.2872240.4421250.0799540.2576780.26224211051105110511051105110522122122122122122105:EVA©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.21219981999200020012002EVAEPSROELDARCLARTLAR0.0164790.015486-0.001952-0.026755-0.0259820.0064000.0069000.001800-0.023400-0.0280000.1128050.1072670.1040490.1179000.1151370.2438780.2189850.2214180.1251960.0785930.2500000.2100000.2100000.1350000.1000000.3057610.2571630.2435040.2686270.3197570.1483220.0787830.0696180.0237170.0016580.1028700.0893000.0804000.0565000.0338000.9152820.1467440.1496210.2036650.2118050.0548350.0538070.0567190.0564100.0586530.0238600.0212150.0247770.0157820.0230430.0759060.0750730.0775820.0829040.0881800.3563160.3666930.3761790.4131870.4730430.3457650.3637790.3777700.3978020.4323050.1618450.1620270.1565520.2698680.4175180.4116490.4211720.4333240.4699750.5319920.4089540.4239140.4384450.4647390.5085960.1650130.1661440.1604550.2707440.426079315(1)1:(1),EVAROE,EVAEPSROE,EVAEVA,EPSROE,,15200411©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(2)EVAEPSROE,EVA(3)1998200245%,,199841.16%40.89%200253.20%50.86%,(4),,587.53%,,(5),,,()EVA11F,EVA,EVA,FF:F,,;,,:F33EVAFF1F2F1F2LDARit=i+EVAiti+uit4.1778041.8551641.141.2CLARit=i+EVAiti+uit1.9408911.2745121.141.2TLARit=i+EVAiti+uit2.062891.41531.141.2LDARit=i+EVAi(t-1)i+uit3.2785441.4692821.161.22CLARit=i+EVAi(t-1)i+uit1.2183240.7148351.161.22TLARit=i+EVAi(t-1)i+uit1.2273930.7151371.161.22LDARit=i+EVAi(t-2)i+uit2.5036891.1939771.221.26CLARit=i+EVAi(t-2)i+uit1.0189750.7469941.221.26TLARit=i+EVAi(t-2)i+uit1.0163870.7352681.221.263:(1)F,,EVA,25:EVAF,FF2[(n-1)(K+1),n(T-K-1)],F1[(n-1)K,n(T-K-1)],K=1,T3,F,2(T=3),3,3©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,(2),F,,,,EVA,:EVA,EVA:,:,,21,,,EVA44EVATR2LDARit=i+EVAi(t-2)i+uit0.0051160.00680.875771CLARit=i+EVAi(t-1)i+uit0.0514210.02550.970805CLARit=i+EVAi(t-2)i+uit-0.0979050.00720.917706TLARit=i+EVAi(t-1)i+uit0.0184880.37770.990138TLARit=i+EVAi(t-2)i+uit-0.0580450.01780.9820724:(1),EVAT,,EVA,,0.005116,,EVA(2),EVAT,EVA,,EVA(3),EVAT0.3777,T;T,,EVA,EVA,,EVA35200411,,,,221(),Eviews221,,,,©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.EVA:EVA,,,;,;()EVAEPSROEEVA(ROEEPS),EVAEPSROE11EPSEPSF,55:5EPSFF1F2F1F2LDARit=i+EPSiti+uit4.0629231.7706091.141.2CLARit=i+EPSiti+uit1.8538921.2118131.141.2TLARit=i+EPSiti+uit1.9678821.3246151.141.2LDARit=i+EPSi(t-1)i+uit3.0433981.2924151.161.22CLARit=i+EPSi(t-1)i+uit2.6142172.4950611.161.22TLARit=i+EPSi(t-1)i+uit2.5856722.5970571.161.22LDARit=i+EPSi(t-2)i+uit2.3773841.09581.221.26CLARit=i+EPSi(t-2)i+uit1.1143180.8635111.221.26TLARit=i+EPSi(t-2)i+uit1.1753020.9253551.221.26(1)EPS,,,EPS,EVA,EVAEPS,EVA(2),,EPS,,,EVA6,6:6EPSTR2LDARit=i+EPSi(t-2)i+uit-0.0030820.00000.906616CLARit=i+EPSi(t-2)i+uit-0.0744370.00000.943242TLARit=i+EPSi(t-2)i+uit-0.0609600.00000.99376445:EVA©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(1),,R290%(2)EPS,EPS,,EPS,,EPS,(3)EPSR20.9060.9432420.993764,EVAR20.8760.9180.982,EVA,EVA21ROEROEF7,7:7ROEFF1F2F1F2LDARit=i+ROEiti+uit3.9499031.6531831.141.2CLARit=i+ROEiti+uit2.0240741.3752381.141.2TLARit=i+ROEiti+uit2.1321291.5018011.141.2LDARit=i+ROEi(t-1)i+uit3.1457781.3707731.161.22CLARit=i+ROEi(t-1)i+uit3.0425762.952051.161.22TLARit=i+ROEi(t-1)i+uit3.2228263.1534291.161.22LDARit=i+ROEi(t-2)i+uit2.2863551.0250191.221.26CLARit=i+ROEi(t-2)i+uit1.402211.1837711.221.26TLARit=i+ROEi(t-2)i+uit1.4816881.2683321.221.26(1)EPSF,ROEF,ROE,ROEEPS(2)EVAROE,EVAROE(3),EPS,8,8:8ROETR2LDARit=i+ROEi(t-2)i+uit0.0123070.00000.871083CLARit=i+ROEi(t-2)i+uit-0.0182830.00010.984731(1)ROE