JP摩根美股饮料与护理行业美国饮料家庭与个人护理有机增长改善消化了大部分成本压力2019230页

1U.S.Beverages,Household&PersonalCareOrganicGrowthImproving,LappingMostCostPressures.FXRemainsHeadwindSeetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.AndreaTeixeira,CFAAC(1-212)[e-mail]GromAC(1-212)[e-mail],CFAAC(1-212)[e-mail]earchFebruary2019AgendaPage2Beverage,HouseholdandPersonalCareOutlookIndustryBull&BearDebate3CurrencyRemainsaMajorHeadwindforMultinationals5BothSectorsDe-Ratedin2018WhileBeveragesFairedBetter6StockPickSummary7CompSheet8JPMEstimateSummary9Bull&BearDebate,JPMViewonStocks10Disclosures26U.S.BEVERAGES,HOUSEHOLD&PERSONALCARE:INVESTMENTGUIDE3Beverages/HPCOutlookImprovingWithPricing,A&P,LappingCostHikesU.S.BEVERAGES,HOUSEHOLD&PERSONALCARE:INVESTMENTGUIDEBullBearFXvolatilityreducingearningsgrowthformultinationalsChannelshifttoonlineincreasingbrandfragmentation/competitionCommoditiesandtransportationcostpressureslingeringlongerthananticipatedJ.P.MorganView:FavorGARP(STZ,PG,PEP),AvoidOutofFavorCategories&Channels(ELF,COTY)MostcompaniesarefinallyimplementingpriceincreasesCyclingmostofthecommoditiescostpressuresTradewarhaslimitedimpactexceptforNWL&ELFY/Y%ChangeinCYEPS–*NWL–2018isnotmeaningful.CUERVO–EPSisinMexicanPesos(reportingcurrency)3%9%-4%9%7%7%-39%1%9%7%10%45%8%18%0%14%-3%15%2%-4%9%7%9%5%7%6%13%13%6%9%7%9%31%11%15%7%9%9%13%14%6%10%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%CENTACHDCLCLXCOTYELELFKMBPGMedianHPCBF/BCOTCUERVO*MMKDPKOMNSTPEPSAMSTZTAPMedianBEVCY19CY205%9%0%8%7%10%-17%4%9%7%9%38%10%16%4%12%3%14%8%1%10%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%CENTACHDCLCLXCOTYELELFKMBPGMedianHPCBF/BCOTCUERVO*MMKDPKOMNSTPEPSAMSTZTAPMedianBEV18-20EEPSCAGR4Valuationvs.OrganicGrowthSource:JPMorganEstimates,BloombergCorrelationofValuationandOrganicSalesGrowthisStrongestU.S.BEVERAGES,HOUSEHOLD&PERSONALCARE:INVESTMENTGUIDEX-AxisCY19P/ERatio;Y-Axis–OrganicGrowthorUnderlyingTopLineGrowthasProxyScarcityofGrowthValuationofCYP/E19Evs.TopLineGrowthCY19E(whereavailable)Source:JPMorganEstimates,BloombergSTZ,PEP,KMBandCUERVOareMostReasonablyPricedfortheTopLineGrowthTheyareExpectedtoDeliverKOPEPKDPMNSTTAPSTZCUERVOBF/BCHDCLCLXCOTYELKMBNWLPGELFy=0.0051x-0.0733R²=0.5575-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%10.012.515.017.520.022.525.027.530.0P/E19EOrganicSalesKO21.64.0%PEP20.44.0%KDP22.02.8%MNST28.711.3%TAP12.6-0.2%STZ17.86.9%CUERVO22.76.3%BF/B28.05.4%CHD26.63.9%CL23.22.7%CLX23.93.1%COTY16.51.1%EL29.87.6%KMB17.52.1%NWL10.4-2.1%PG21.13.1%ELF16.8-4.5%MedianBevs21.84.7%MedianHPC21.12.7%5CurrencyRemainsaMajorHeadwindforMultinationalsStrongerUSdollarresultedinstrongerearningsgrowthfordomestic-focusedcompaniesinourcoverageuniverseforyearsWeakerUSdollarresultedinshort-livedcurrencytailwindsin2H17and1H18,butreversedin2H18USdollarstrengtheningresultinginunfavorablecurrencymovesin2H18and2019CouldlowerEPSgrowth(again)forMNCin2019ParticularlycautiouswithcompanieswithlargeexposurestoBritishPound,MexicanPesoandtheBrazilianRealU.S.BEVERAGES,HOUSEHOLD&PERSONALCARE:INVESTMENTGUIDESource:CompanyreportsandJ.P.MorganestimatesSource:BloombergandJ.P.MorganestimatesFXRemainsVolatile.EarningsGrowthShouldDecelerateforMultinationals.AlreadyReflectedinValuation?Source:BloombergandJ.P.Morganestimates%premium/discountrelativeforAvg.P/EofMultinationalsvs.DomesticBev/HPCNamesY/Y%ChangeinCYEPSofMultinationals(CL,KMB,EL,PG,KO,andPEP)vs.Domestic(CHD,CLX,KDP)-11.8%-14.3%-16.0%-12.9%-8.7%-4.1%-0.9%-2.3%-1.3%-2.4%0.9%3.7%7.6%1.4%-5.0%-4.9%-6.2%-2.8%0.9%2.1%0.3%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%10/092/106/1010/10406026/1110/112/126/1210/122/136/1310/132/146/1410/142/156/1510/152/166/1610/162/176/1710/172/186/1810/182/19MNCPremium/Discountvs.Domestic2-Yr5-Yr10-Yr0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%DomesticAvg.MultinationalAvg.6Defensiveness-SectorsRe-RatedvsSPX,ToppingHistoricalAveragesSource:BloombergHPCTradingInLinewith2-Yearand5-YearAveragesU.S.BEVERAGES,HOUSEHOLD&PERSONALCARE:INVESTMENTGUIDEAvg.NTMP/ERatioforCHD,CL,CLX,EL,KMB,NWL,andPGvs.HistoricalAveragesSource:BloombergBeveragePeersTradingIn-Linewith2-Yr5-YrAveragesAvg.NTMP/ERatioforKO,PEP,MNST,KDP,TAP,BF/B,STZ,andSAMBeveragePremiumTopsHistoricalAverages%premium/discountrelativeforAvg.P/EofBeverageCompaniesvs.S&PHPCPremiumvs.S&PAboveAveragesSource:Bloomberg%premium/discountrelativeforAvg.P/EofHPCCompaniesvs.S&PSource:Bloomberg10.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.026.028.06/0711/074/089/082/097/0912/095/1010/103/118/111/126/1211/124/139/132/147/1412/145/1510/153/168/161/176/1711/174/189/182/19HPCAvg.2-Yr5-Yr10-Yr-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%6/07