巴克莱美股食品饮料行业美国必需品消费2019年Q1EPS预览20194864页

EquityResearch8April2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE58.Restricted-InternalU.S.ConsumerStaples1Q19“AllConsumer”EPSPreviewComingoutofCAGNY,wesensedaclear,continuedemphasisondrivingsustainable,balancedgrowthfrommostStaplescompanies-whichwebelievewaswellreceivedbyinvestors.Withthisinmindheadingintothe1Q19earningsseason,wethinkthere’sacertaindegreeofcautiousoptimismwithregardtomanynameswithinourcoverage.Asweparsethroughhowtheoutlookforthegroupisevolvingduringthenextfewweeksofreporting,we’llbeparticularlyfocusedonthefollowingthreekeytopicsthatweseeasbeingmostrelevant:Withreinvestmentinitiativesunderwayatmany(ifnotmost)ofthecompaniesunderourcoverage,webelieveinvestorswilllookforincrementalvisibilityonbettertop-linegrowth.Giventhisbackdrop,ourprimaryconcernisthatimprovementmaybeunlikelytomanifestnotonlyin1Qbutpotentiallyinsubsequentquarters,aswe’reremindedthatcompaniesthathaveachievedmeaningfultop-lineimprovement(e.g.P&G,KO)tookyears(notquarters)formomentumtofullybuild.Wecancertainlyunderstandtherationaleforpositioninginsomeofthese“re-base”storiesgivenvisibility(andadegreeoffearofmissingout),althoughwethinkthepathtobetterresultsmaynotbelinear,andfranklymaytakeabitlongertoplayoutthansomeanticipate.GiventhatthemajorityofStaplesnameshaveguidedto(orbroadlydiscussed)anetpricingbenefitthisyear,we’llbefocusedonwhetherthisisreflectedinP&Ls,andifexpectationshavechangedaroundthelonger-termimpact(includingwithrespecttovolumeelasticity).Notably,asweaddressedinajointreportwithourU.S.Food&StaplesRetailinganalystKarenShortlastFriday(seeThePricingDebate:FactorF(r)iction?;04/05/19),whilethemajorityofCPGplayershavediscussedeffectivelytakingpricetooffsetinflation,bycontrast,retailershavediscussedabenigninflationaryenvironment.Webelievetherecouldbeafewreasonsforthedisconnect,includingthatretailersarelikelyabsorbingsomeofthepriceincreases.Assuch,whilewewouldexpectmarginstobenefitcloserin,thesustainabilityofanypricingactionscurrentlyinthemarketshouldbeabuildingthemeas2019progresses.Portfolioreshapingeffortsremainunderway,butitremainstobeseenhowmuchofanimpactthiscouldbringtoP&Ls.Whileperhapsabitmorepackagedfoodoriented,wewouldnotethatmanycompanies(includingCAG,CPB,GIS,K,andKHC)haveindicatedadesiretodivestassetsasameansofreshapingtop-linegrowthprofilesandde-levering.Whilewewouldnotnecessarilyexpectanyupdatesuntiltransactionshavebeenfinalized,webelieveinvestorswillbesensitivetoanysuggestionsaroundthepotentiallevelofdilutionassetsalescouldwellbring,andhowCPGcompaniescurrentlyviewtheoverallM&Aenvironment(asitcouldhaveimplicationsaroundtheabilitytode-levermorerapidly).INDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.CHPC&BeveragesNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.FoodNEUTRALUnchangedForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.U.S.CHPC&[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],USShirleyC.Serrao,[e-mail],[e-mail],USSamuelHigh,[e-mail],USJoshuaBader,CPA,[e-mail],USBarclays|U.S.ConsumerStaples8April20192SummaryofourRatings,PriceTargetsandEarningsChangesinthisReport(allchangesareshowninbold)CompanyRatingPricePriceTargetEPSFY1(E)EPSFY2(E)OldNew05-Apr-19OldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgU.S.CHPC&BeveragesNeuNeuAvonProducts(AVP)EWEW2.973.003.00-0.100.10-0.280.27-4CloroxCompany(CLX)EWEW155.60142.00142.00-6.206.2516.486.683Colgate-Palmolive(CL)EWEW67.9258.0058.00-2.842.8613.083.101KeurigDrPepper(KDP)OWOW27.3131.0031.00-1.211.21-1.471.43-3Kimberly-ClarkCorp.(KMB)EWEW121.92109.00109.00-6.606.6206.956.970MolsonCoorsBrewingCompany(TAP)OWOW60.6373.0073.00-4.844.8204.954.930PepsiCoInc.(PEP)EWEW121.62111.00111.00-5.525.52-5.945.920U.S.FoodNeuNeuNomadFoodsLtd.(NOMD)OWOW20.6524.0024.00-1.321.21-81.401.25-11TheKraftHeinzCompany(KHC)EWEW33.1737.0037.00-2.832.8612.902.931Source:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency.FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspendedIndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeBarclays|U.S.ConsumerStaples8April20193TABLEOFCONTENTSCONSOLIDATEDBARCLAYSRESEARCHESTIMATES..............................5CONSOLIDATEDEARNINGSCALLINFORMATION..................................61Q19CHEATSHEET.........................................................................................71Q19C