德银拉美食品饮料行业拉美消费者月度报告从自由零售到大宗商品市场的持续2017年12月20171214

14December2017BeveragesLatamConsumerMonthlyBeveragesIndustryUpdateLatinAmericaIndustryLatamConsumerMonthlyDate14December2017DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMovefromdiscretionaryretailtostaplescontinues(December2017)ProfittakinginBraziliandiscretionarycontinuedInNovember,just39%ofourcoveredstocksshowedpositivereturnsand54%outperformedtheirrespectiveindices.AfewMexicanstocks(AC,KIMBERA,WALMEXandSORIANAB)showedmoderate(single-digit)gainsthankstopositiveearningssurprises,asdidBrazil-basedglobalproteingiantJBSS3.ProfittakingcontinuedforBrazilianretailersBTOW3,ARZZ3,HGTX3andLAME4,whileacloser-than-expectedfirst-roundelectionresultinChileledtodouble-digitdeclinesinmostoftheChileannamesinourcoverage(exceptforVCO,whichismostlyexport-oriented).Yeartodate,theLatAmFoodandHPCsubsectorsaretrailingtheirrespectivecountryindicesby27%and4%(respectively)onaverage,whileBeveragesremainroughlyin-line.Retailerscontinuetooutperform(by6%onaverage),butbyamuchlowermarginthanlastmonth(YTDoutperformanceasof31Octoberwas12%),suggestingthatinvestorscontinuetomoveintomoredefensivepositionsas2017comestoaclose.FEMSAundervaluationversuspartslargelycorrectedInlastmonth'sissue,wehighlightedthatthegapbetweenFMX'svalueandthatofthepartshadopenedsubstantiallyduringthepriormonth,fromjustunder$1billion(equivalentto$2.68/ADS,orroughly3%)to$3.1billion(equivalentto8.81/ADS,orroughly10%).AsillustratedinFigure40(p.25)thisvaluegaphasnowreturnedtomorenormallevels.WecontinuetohaveaBuyratingonFMX(basedonourearningsoutlook),butwenolongerthinkitismispricedversustheparts.Liverpoolsharesnowat5-yearlowsLIVEPOLC1.MXisnowtradingatone-andfive-yearlowsandhasfallen30%sinceitsmostrecentpeak(9August)versusa6%declineinMexico'sIPCindex,onthebackofwhatweconsidertobeexaggeratedconcernsaboutAmazon'sentryintotheMexicanmarket.Liverpool's3Q17resultshavealsobeenasourceofconcern(onrisingNPLsandotherissuesrelatedtotheSeptemberearthquake),butinourview4Q17resultsshouldgoalongwaytoerasingthoseconcerns.Asaresult,wereiterateourBuyRatingonLIVEPOLC1.JoseYordanResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-5528MarcelMoraesResearchAnalyst+1-904-271-2470YusufJamal,CFAResearchAssociateKailaLopezResearchAssociate+1-904-645-1197DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.THECONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDINTHEPEOPLE’SREPUBLICOFCHINA(“THEPRC”)(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCEWITHTHEAPPLICABLELAWSANDREGULATIONSOFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAUDistributedon:14/12/201720:57:11GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa14December2017BeveragesLatamConsumerMonthlyTableOfContentsDBRelatedResearch—November......................................3LatinAmerica:3Q17earningsupdatesandestimaterevisions.........................3Global:DinoInitiation,Pioneer/Eurocashdowngrades,3Q17result..................4DBLatAmConsumerCoverageSummaries.......................5GlobalPeerValuationTables..............................................9HistoricalValuationMultiples...........................................21LatAmFoodstocks..........................................................................................21LatAmBeveragestocks....................................................................................23LatAmHousehold&PersonalCarestocks......................................................26LatAmRetailstocks.........................................................................................27InputCostTracker.............................................................32Beveragerawmaterials:worldsugarstabilizingnearmulti-yearl...................32Grainpricesgenerallystable(withonlywheatrising);Brazilca......................33Pulpstillrisingfrommulti-yearlows;oilupslightly........................................35BrazilProteinUpdate........................................................37UpdateontheConsumer(BR,MX,CL,CO).....................38Brazil:recoverycontinuestoproceed,butrisksremain..................................38Mexico:somepositivesigns,butNAFTAandthe2018electionrema............40Chile:recoverytopickupdespitepauseineasingcycle,asthe.....................42Colombia:stagnationstillexpectedin2017,butsignsofrecover...................43ValuationandRisks..........................................................45Page2DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Page3DBRelatedResearch—NovemberLatinAmerica:3Q17earningsupdatesandestimaterevisions■Gruma-RemainsattractiveonvaluationandpotentialboostfromUStaxreform-JoseYordan-Dec01,2017■Cencosud-3Q17results:shoppingcentersandfinancialservicesonlypositives-MarcelMoraes-Nov22,2017■AlmacenesExito-3Q17results:Uruguaytheonlybrightspot-MarcelMoraes-Nov15,2017■Falabella-3Q17results:Achillincoreperformance-MarcelMoraes-Nov15,2017■Natura-3Q17results-MarcelMoraes-Nov15,2017■LojasRenne