德银拉美饮料业拉美消费者一月报2017年评论与2018年展望2018012182页

21January2018BeveragesLatamConsumerMonthlyBeveragesIndustryUpdateLatinAmericaIndustryLatamConsumerMonthlyDate21January2018DeutscheBankMarketsResearch2017Reviewand2018Outlook(January2018)2017wasamuchbetteryearthan2016bothinabsoluteandrelativetermsAlmost80%ofourcoveredstocksshowedpositivereturnsin2017,butonly39%managedtooutperformtheirrespectiveMSCIcountryindex(versus59%and28%,respectively,2016).Aswenotedthroughouttheyear,therewasawidedivergencebetweendiscretionaryretailersandstaplesstocks:2017wasanexceptionalyearforBraziliandiscretionaryretailers,which(withtheexceptionofLojasAmericanas)postedveryhighpositivereturnsinUSDtermsandoutperformedtheBrazilMSCIIndexbyatleast50%drivenbyanincipienteconomicrecovery,asharpdropininflation,monetaryeasingandafallingunemploymentrate.Inaddition,severalblue-chipstaplesstocksalsoperformedwell(albeittoalesserextent).Ontheotherhand,mostBrazilianmeatproducers/packershadanotherbadyear,miredbyongoinggovernmentinvestigations,highleverageandmanagementturnover.ButthebiggestnegativesurprisewasLiverpool,whichborethebruntofinvestors'fears(exaggerated,inourview)regardingAmazon'sexpansionintoLatinAmerica.UpdatingannualtotalreturnanalysisInthisissue,weupdateourlong-termtotalreturnanalysis(lastpublishedintheJanuary2017issue)forthestocksinourcoverageuniverse,toreflect2017results.Whilelastyearwasnotagoodyearintermsofindexoutperformance,ouranalysiscontinuestounderscorethelong-termattractivenessoftheLatamConsumersector(asmostofthestockswith10-yearrecordshaveoutperformed).2018couldbevolatile(MX/BRelections),soweremaingenerallydefensiveWithGDPgrowthexpectedtopickupinallmajorLatammarkets,2018shouldbeagenerallypositiveyearforconsumerstocks.Weexpectdiscretionaryretailstocks(thestarsof2017)todecelerate,givingthestagetofoodretailers(ourBuy-ratednamesinthisspaceareCBD,FEMSA,ExitoandCarrefourBrasil).Thereisoneexception:webelievethatLiverpool,theonestockinthediscretionaryspacethatfellin2017,willstageacomeback(asshouldKimberly-ClarkdeMexico,anotherstrong-MXNplay).AmongFoodandBeveragecompanieswecontinuetopreferChile-basedAndina(undervaluedwithsignificantBrazilexposure)andConchayToro(oncostreductionprogramandpotentialstrongharvest),Mexico-basedGrumaandGrupoBimbo(bothbeneficiariesofUStaxreform,andoversoldinourview)andBrazil-basedMinerva(onfavorablecattlecycleandsynergiesfromtheSouthernConeacquisitionin2017).JoseYordanResearchAnalyst+1-212-250-5528MarcelMoraesResearchAnalyst+1-904-271-2470YusufJamal,CFAResearchAssociateKailaLopezResearchAssociate+1-904-645-1197DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:22/01/201804:06:14GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa21January2018BeveragesLatamConsumerMonthlyTableOfContentsDBRelatedResearch—December......................................3LatinAmerica:CarrefourBrasilInitiation,JBSReinstatement...........................3Global:UpdateonRussianFoodRetailers&ICBPbeveragebuyout.................4DBLatAmConsumerCoverageSummaries.......................5UpdatedTotalReturnAnalysis...........................................92017Recap.........................................................................................................9(A)Mexicanbakers(BimboandGruma)stilloutofsync.................................12(B)Brazilianproteinproducersstillperformingpoorly.....................................14(C)Beveragesremainthemostconsistent......................................................18(D)Large-capfoodretailersamongTop10in2017........................................25(E)Discretionaryretailersthemostrecentstars..............................................28(F)Second-tierMexicanfoodretailersstuckinneutral...................................35(G)Colombia-basedExitostillrecovering........................................................37(H)Cosmetics/HPCremainsresilient...............................................................38GlobalPeerValuationTables.............................................40HistoricalValuationMultiples...........................................52LatAmFoodstocks..........................................................................................52LatAmBeveragestocks....................................................................................54LatAmHousehold&PersonalCarestocks......................................................57LatAmRetailstocks.........................................................................................58InputCostTracker.............................................................63Beveragerawmaterials:worldsugarstabilizingnearmulti-yearl...................63Grainpricesgenerallystable(withonlywheatrising);Brazilca......................64Pulpstillrisingfrommulti-yearlows;oilkeepsrisingamidglo......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