摩根士丹利亚太地区酒水饮料行业亚洲入门东盟啤酒20197481页

FOUNDATIONMAsiaPrimerASEANBeer101ASEANbeermarketsaregrowinginrelevanceforregional&globalbrewersastheyareforecastedtocontribute80%ofincrementalvolumegrowthinAsia'sbeerindustryoverthenext5years.Thisprimerprovidesmarketinsights&aframeworktoassessgrowth,profitability&valuationdrivers.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.July4,201908:00PMGMTFOUNDATIONMMORGANSTANLEYASIA(SINGAPORE)P[e-mail]NLEYASIA(SINGAPORE)PTE.+NicoYosman,[e-mail]ASEANBeer101ASEANbeermarketsaregrowinginrelevanceforregional&globalbrewersastheyareforecastedtocontribute80%ofincrementalvolumegrowthinAsia'sbeerindustryoverthenext5years.Thisprimerprovidesmarketinsights&aframeworktoassessgrowth,profitability&valuationdrivers.GrowingrelevanceoftheASEANbeerconsumer:ASEANaccountsforjust16%ofAsiaPacificand6%ofglobalbeervolumes.However,EuromonitorforecaststhatASEANbeerwillreach14bnlitersby2023(+28%vs2018),whichtranslatesto80%ofthevolumegrowthforecastedfortheentireAsiaPacificregioninthesameperiod.Intermsofsalesvalue,theASEANbeermarketshouldgrowata10%CAGR,2018-23,400bpsaboveAPACandglobalgrowth,accordingtoEuromonitorforecasts.CharacteristicsoftheASEANbeermarket:(1)OverallASEANbeerconsumption(2018)isabout17literspercapitaperannum,ascom-paredwiththeglobalaverageof26literspercapitaperannum.(2)WithinASEAN,thelargestbeermarketbyvolumeisVietnam,andbyvalueisThailand.However,inthenextfiveyears,Vietnamappearstobeontracktobecomethelargestbybothvolumeandvalue.(3)Priceofa330mlpackofbeerrangesfrom43USc(Vietnam)toUS$1.8(SingaporeandMalaysia).ExcisetaxonbeerinSingaporeandMalaysiaisthehighestintheworldafterNorway.(4)Interestingly,inallASEANcountries,thetopsellingbeerisalocal/regionalbrand.(5)ThePhilippinesandLaosaredistinctivemarketsintheregion,inthatthemarketleadercontrols90%marketshare,whereasCambodia,SingaporeandVietnamaretheregion'smorefragmentedmarkets.Growthdrivers:Favorabledemographics,risingincomesandurban-izationaresupportingfactorsforgrowth.Themedianageincoun-triessuchasthePhilippines,LaosandCambodiaisstillunder25years.Vietnamwillbethelargestvolumegrowthcontributorfortheregion,in2018-23,followedbythePhilippines.However,evensmallermarketslikeCambodiahavebeenrisinginprominenceanditisexpectedtobethethirdlargestgrowthcontributorandthefastestgrowerinASEANwith9%volumeCAGR,2018-23.Profitabilitydrivers:Intermsofsize,thePhilippinesandVietnamhavethelargestprofitpoolsforbeerwhileThailandprofitabilityisthelowestdespitehavinglargebeervolumes.IntermsofEBIT/ltr,IndonesiaandMalaysiaarethemostprofitablemarkets.Margintrendsvary,withdominantplayerslikeSanMiguel(thePhilippines)andHeineken(IndonesiaandMalaysia)enjoying40%OPMandasteadyincreaseEBITperliteroverthepastthreeyears.Profitabilityistypicallyafunctionofthecompetitivelandscape,excisetaxchanges,andconsumerpurchasingpower.WhilepremiumizationhasbeenamargindriverinsuchmarketsasChinaandKorea,thistrendisnotnotable(yet)inthePhilippines,ThailandandMyanmar,whicheachhavealargemarketforcheaphardliquor,andhencerelativepricingofbeerbecomesarelevantfactorforconsumerpreference.Valuationframework:ASEANbeerplayersaretradingata20%pre-miumtotheglobalpeeraveragePER.However,typicalofthecon-sumersector,beercompaniesevenwithinASEANtradeatawiderangeofmultiples,currently18-35xforwardPERand11-23xforwardEV/EBITDA.Wevaluebeercompaniesinourcoverageusingrelativemultiples,asthecompaniesalsohaveotherbusinesssegments.Weusea'Growth+Quality'valuationframeworkthattakesintoaccountgrowthoutlookandqualityofthebusinessmodelintermsofpricingpower,profitabilityandproductivity.IndustryViewASEANConsumer—AttractiveFOUNDATIONM4Contents5MappingtheASEANbeermarket15RevenueGrowthDrivers28ProfitabilityDrivers37ValuationFramework45ASEANBeerCompaniesProfile49BrandPositioningofKeyPlayers51ExciseTaxesandOtherRegulations57AppendixI:VietnamBeerMarket60AppendixII:PhilippinesBeerMarket64AppendixIII:ThailandBeerMarket67AppendixIV:Cambodia,Laos,andMyanmarBeerMarket70AppendixV:Singapore,Malaysia,andIndonesiaBeerMarket73BeerBrewingProcessandTypesFOUNDATIONMMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH5ASEANbeertocontribute80%of2018-23AsiabeervolumegrowthASEANmarketsconsumedabout11bnlitersofbeerin2018–16%ofAsiaPacificvolumesand6%ofglobalbeervolumes.However,EuromonitorforecaststhatASEANbeerwillreach14bnlitersbyMappingtheASEANbeermarket2023(+28%vs2018),no