瑞信美股酒精饮料行业美国啤酒产业深度研究长期趋势没有捷径可走201961043页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.10June2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchBeer&AlcoholicBeveragesDeepDiveonU[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail]FixforLongTermTrends;WinnersStakingOutHigh-EndLeadership■Powerful,Long-termTrendsPointtoaShrinkingIndustry:AgenerationaldemographicshiftleavesnoquestionUSbeermarkettrendsareunlikelytochangeinthemediumterm.Mainstreambrandsmakeup40%ofindustryvolumeandaredeclining~5%annually(called“Premium”intheU.S.).Thisisunlikelytochange.Weexamineadditionalsecularheadwinds:1)Consumersdrinkingless;2)Agenerationofsharelossestowine&spirits;3)Biggestbrewerswiththehighestexposuretothesegmentsdecliningthefastest;4)YoungdrinkerspreferencefornewerAlcBevoptions;5)Riseofalternativeaway-from-homedrinking(taprooms);6)Cannabissubstitutionrisk;and7)Debtlevelsstiflinginvestment.■LeadersStakedOutPocketsofGrowth:OpportunitiesinHigh-Endsegments,health&wellnessrelated-products,andM&Aoutsideofbeercanstillsupportmeaningfulgrowth.BostonBeer(growingFlavoredMaltBeverageexposure)andConstellationBrands(premierHigh-Endportfolio,firstmoverincannabis)holdcommandingleadsinthesegmentsdrivingallofthemarketgrowth.Inourview,anycompanythathasnotalreadyre-aligneditsportfoliowillfallfurtherbehindatanacceleratedrate.■OutperformonABI,STZ:WePreferUSRecoveryStory:OurtoppickinglobalbeerisAnheuser-BuschInBev(ABI)–duetoitsstrategytoevolvemoreurgentlyintheUStotheHigh-End(now22%ofvolume,27%revenue).Recentsignsarepositive,asgrowthintheHigh-Endacceleratedto~8%,andtheregionshowedmodestsalesgrowthforthefirsttimein4yrs.WeestimatetheimpliedvaluationofABIN.Americaisata30%discounttoTAP(EV/NOPAT);sustained“badtobetter”momentumcansupportare-rating.Constellation(STZ)shoulddeliverhealthyorganicbeerrevs(+8%)andEPS(+12%)forNewCo(post-winedivestiture),evenwiththelawoflargenumbers,lessnewdistribution,organicinnovationcomps,andcannabisvolatility.■UnderperformonTAP:MolsonCoors(TAP)derives70%ofitsUSvolumefromdecliningmainstreambrands(est.340bpannualheadwind).ThisportfolioconcernisexacerbatedbyashrinkingHigh-End(-10%vs.industry+5%).At4xleverage,NTcashflowisallocatedfirsttodebt-holderswhichlimitsboldacquisitions/capitalinvestmentsforaturnaround.Wemodel+1%EPSCAGR(’19-’22).■NeutralonSAM:BostonBeer’s(SAM)recentproductsuccessTrulySpikedSeltzer(#2sharegrowingtripledigits)addstoastrongFMBportfoliowhichis50%oftotalvolume.Itservesasanoffsettotheslumpingbeerbusiness(-7%YOY)whichdespiteinvestmenthasyettoberevived.10June2019DeepDiveonU.S.Beer2TableofContentsNoQuickFixforLongTermTrends;WinnersStakingOutHigh-EndLeadership1KeyCharts3USBeerOutlookTroubled41.ConsumersareDrinkingLessAlcohol.................................................................42.BeerGenerationalShareLoss.............................................................................53.PublicCompaniesPortfoliosHeavilyExposedToDecliningSub-Segments......74.LongerTermChallengeofMillennialsShiftingAwayfromBeer..........................95.OnPremiseShifttoAlternativeChannels..........................................................106.CannabisRisk....................................................................................................127.DebtOverhangStiflingInvestment....................................................................15AreasofGrowthwithEstablishedLeaders161.High-EndBeerFastestGrowingSegment.........................................................162.LeaningintoHealth&Wellness.........................................................................193.M&A…OutsideofBeer.......................................................................................21BeerCompanyComparisons23Anheuser-BuschInBev(ABI).................................................................................25MolsonCoorsBrewingCo.(TAP)..........................................................................29ConstellationBrands(STZ)....................................................................................31BostonBeerCompany(SAM)................................................................................3310June2019DeepDiveonU.S.Beer3KeyChartsFigure1:ConsumersDrinkingLessAlcoholFigure2:GenerationofBeerVolumeShareDeclinesSource:IWSR.Beer:4.8%,Wine13.5%,Spirits40.0%,MixedDrinks5.0%.Source:IWSRdata;shareisa%oftotalalcohol.Figure3:MainstreamVolumesConsistentlyDown;50%ofABI,68%ofTAPFigure4:BeerCo.DebtStiflingInvestment,M&AS