我国上市公司成长性评价研究

广西师范大学硕士学位论文我国上市公司成长性评价研究姓名：程昌平申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：陆奇岸20080401I200520012006IIIIIStudyonGrowthEvaluationofListedCompaniesinChinaABSTRACTEnterprisesaretheeconomicsystemcellsandthecarrierofthenationaleconomicdevelopment.Moreovergrowthisthesoulofenterprises,thelifeofstockmarket,andthemaindrivingforcefornationaleconomicsustainabledevelopment.Inanotherway,whetherenterprisescanmaintaineconomicgrowthinasustainedandstablewayandincreasetherightsandinterestsofthevalueofcapital,arethemostfundamentalandobjectivecriteriaforthesurvivalanddevelopmentofenterprises.Thegrowthoflistedcompaniesisthefoundationandpremisesforthestocksecuritiesbusiness’prosperity.Healthysecuritiesbusinessneedsnationalinvestmentbehavior,andrationalinvestmentbehaviorcan’tdeviatefrompotentiallyhealthydevelopinglistedcompanies.Thestudyongrowthevaluationoflistedcompaniesisveryimportanttoinvestors,creditorsorthelistedcompanyitselfinthiscontext.Therefore,thestudyongrowthoftheenterpriseisarousingmoreandconcernfromacademics,inwhichgrowthevaluationisoneofthehotspots.Manyfactorsinfluencethegrowthofenterprise,sodifferentpointofviewwillleadtodissimilarconclusion.Thispapertriestoestablishasimpleandfeasiblegrowthevaluationsystemforthelistedcompany,bystudyingthelistedcompany’sfinanceresource.Firstlywemadeextensiveandin-depthdatacollectionandreadtheliterature,comparedandanalyzedthedate,atlastweestablishedthegrowthevaluationsystemofthelistedcompaniesusingthemanagement,economicsandsystemsciencetheoryandmadeanexampleforhouseholdapplianceindustry.Theholisticrouteofresearchwas:first,weanalyzedenterprises’cashcapacityviafactoranalysis,andgainedthescoreofenterprises'cash,andthenobtainedtherelativeorderofthegrowthevaluationusingthegraycorrelationanalysismethod,lastly,maderegressionanalysis,inordertoreceivetherelationshipfromthegrowthfactor.Weanalyzedvarioustypesofevaluationindexsystemandevaluationmethods,bytrackingandhacklingtheformerresearchliteratureofthegrowthevaluation.Althoughmanyscholarshavemadethestudyingongrowthevaluationoflistedcompanies,mostofthemfollowedtheenterpriseperformanceevaluationsystem,inanotherwordsmostofthembasetheirresearchonfinancialratios.Therefore,weusedcurrentliabilities,totalliabilitiesandtotalassets,themainbusinessincomeandbusinessactivitiesgeneratednetcashflowforourpreliminaryresearchvariables.Werevealthegrowthofenterprisesbyanalyzingthechangesoftheliabilities,assets,structurebetweenassetsandliabilitiesandthecashcapacity.IVThispaperanalysisthecashcapacity,relativegrowthorderandgrowthforecastofChina'shouseholdelectricalappliancelistedcompanies,usingthe2001-2006’sdate.Themainconclusionsarethatwegettwoscoresofthecash,gapbetweenthetwoscoresandtheintegratedscoresbycalculatingthedate.Thus,wecanjudgeconsolidatedcashflowsituationoftheenterprises,revealingtheactualsituationoftheenterprises;WegetvariousenterpriseshorizontalcomparisonviaGreyRelationAnalysis;Throughregressionanalysis,growthofthenetassetsandmainbusinessrevenueeventuallyentertheregressionmodelwhichapprovetheideaofspecializationemphasizedbymanyscholars.Inconclusion,thispaperconfirmsourassumptions”China’slistedcompaniescontainedinfinancialresourcescanbepredictedfuturedevelopmentofinformationonthestatusoffactors,thegrowthofthelistedcompanieswithpredictable”iscorrect,overpassaseriesoftheoreticalandempiricalanalysis.However,thestudyalsohasalotoflimitations,becausethechoiceofmodelandsomeobjectivefactors.Inthefuturestudy,westrivetoseekmorereasonablemodel,inordertoeliminatetheimpactoftheobjectivefactorsagreaterextent,reflecttheactualgrowthstateofenterprisesmoreobjective.KeywordsListedcompanies;GrowthFactoranalysis;Grayrelationalanalysis;Regressionanalysis11.16252507401012500404210003030[1]1993199519972000200251993420007.02199520038199520%38.5%61.5%200338.5%22.9%200320%2.1%[2]2.98[3]2001905002021.2(1)(2)1.31.3.1[4][5]3[6]1.3.21.18702.(1931)[7](1)(1776)[8](1890)(1975)(1982)[9]4(1937)(19751985)(19751985)(19551979)(19771992)(1959)[10](1931)()[11][12](1982)()(1980)(19851998)(2)[13](1959)(1996)[14](1999)[15](1998)[16]5(1990)[17](2000)(1956)(1986)3.19801(1996)(1999)(1999)(2004)[18](2002)[19](DNA)DNA(2000)(1998)(2000)4.6,1.41.4.1(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)1.4.21.(1)(2)7(3)2.1.51.5.11.5.282.12.1.12.1.2()()(1)(2)(3)(4)9(5)(6)(7)2.2(FirmSize)(1997)1981199283%(1998)(1959)2.2.11.[20](2000)[21]102.(1)(2004)420(2003)(2)(1997)6(2002)15(2006)(2001)GEP()()()()()(1999)4%11(2004)5(1998)(2002)1999200011820(2004)36(2004)(2002)R&DR&DR&DR&D/(3)(2002)20015206450(2001)3060122420(2003)612(2004)2.2.2(1)(GRA)()13N(N)NSPSS(C.E.Shannon)(2)(A)(B)(C)ABDADB14(AHP)20944315163.13.1.1(2001)70705216FisherLogistic(1)2116(2)428(3)Logistic16.47[22]3.1.2[23]173.23.2.1(FactorAnalysis)(C.Spearman)[24]18npnkp:Xi=ai1F1+ai2F2++aijFj++aikFk+iε(i=1,2,,n)Xiaij(i=1,2,,nj=1,2,p)ijijFj(j=1,2,,k)iε(i=1,2,,n)N(0,2):[25](1)KMOBartletts(2)iX1i,Xi2Xi3Xi4Xim:σ/)('jijijXXX−=jXj(3)R(4)R12n∑nii1/λλK85%(5)m(6)3.2.2198219[26](1)mnmXi={Xi(1),Xi(2),,Xi(n)},i=1,2,,mxi(j)ij(2)XkXkX0(n)(3)Yk={Yk(1),Yk(2)Yk(n)}Yk=[Xk(i)minXk(i)]/[maxXk(i)-minXk(i)]i=1,2,3,,nk=12mmaxX(i)i(4)Yk={Y