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IBMGlobalBusinessServicesExecutiveReportIBMInstituteforBusinessValueTelecommunicationsTelco2015Fivetellingyears,fourfuturescenariosIBMInstituteforBusinessValueIBMGlobalBusinessServices,throughtheIBMInstituteforBusinessValue,developsfact-basedstrategicinsightsforseniorexecutivesaroundcriticalpublicandprivatesectorissues.Thisexecutivereportisbasedonanin-depthstudybytheInstitute’sresearchteam.ItispartofanongoingcommitmentbyIBMGlobalBusinessServicestoprovideanalysisandviewpointsthathelpcompanies[e-mail]IBMInstituteforBusinessValuecanbefoundatibm.com/iibvIntroductionDespitetherun-upinmobilerevenuesoverthelastfewyears,communicationsrevenuegrowthisbeginningtofalterasvoicemarketsindevelopingcountriessaturate.Whiletheglobaldigitalrenaissancehasyieldedpocketsofsuccessandopportunityfortelecomproviders,contentandconnectivityrevenueshavenotoffsetthedeclines.Howwilltheindustryevolveoverthenextfiveyears?Willproviderstrategiesbeproactiveorprotective?Ourresearchsuggestsfourplausiblescenariosandtheeventsthatwouldsignaltheirunfolding.Moreimportant,weoutlinethecharacteristicsofcompaniesmostlikelytosucceedineachofthesepossiblefutures.Thetelecommunicationsindustryhasexperiencedmorechangeinthelastdecadethaninitsentirehistory.In1999,only15percentoftheworld’spopulationhadaccesstoatelephone;by2009,nearly70percenthadmobilephones.Inadditiontothisphenomenalgrowthinmobilecommunica-tions,thepastdecadealsobroughtsteepdeclinesinpublicswitchedtelephonenetwork(PSTN)voicerevenues,anexplosionofover-the-top(OTT)communicationservicesandglobalindustryconsolidation(seepage27foraglossaryofcommontelecommunicationstermsandabbreviations).Therewereevenground-breakingdecisionsbysomeTelcostooutsourcefunctionsascoretotheirbusinessastheirphysicalnetworks.Fueledbyrapidgrowthindevelopingcountries,mobilecommunicationshaveproppeduptheindustry’stopline.Butnowwiththesemarketssaturating,communicationsrevenuegrowthisstalling.Expectedcontentandconnectivity-relatedrevenueshavenotrisenquicklyenoughtocompensate.AlthoughincreasesinmobileInternetusageofferaglimmerofhope–alongwithahostofoperationalchallenges–thetelecomindustryfacessomeseriousquestions:Wherewillfuturegrowthcomefrom?Howwilltheindustryevolve?ByEkowNelsonandRobvandenDamIBMresearchsuggeststhattheoutcomesforseveralimportantindustrytrendsarehighlypredictable.1Conversely,wehaveidentified13significantvariablesfromalargerpoolofunknownsthatwillalsohavesignificantimpactontheindustry.Theoutcomesofthe13variablesarefarfromcertainandfallintotwomaincategories:potentialareasofgrowthandthecompetitivestructureoftheindustry.Mappingtheextremesofthepossibleoutcomesrelatedtotheseuncertaintiesrevealsfourcontrastingscenariosdepictingwhattheindustrycouldlooklikefiveyearsfromnow.FourfuturescenariosSurvivorConsolidation:Reducedconsumerspendingleadstorevenuestagnationordecline.Serviceprovidersindevelopedmarketshavenotsignificantlychangedtheirvoicecommunica-tions/closed-connectivityserviceportfolioandhavenotexpandedhorizontallyorintonewverticals.Investors’lossofconfidenceinthesectorproducesacashcrisisandelicitsindustryconsolidation.2Telco2015MarketShakeout:Underaprolongedeconomicdownturnoraweakandinconsistentrecovery,investorsforceproviderstodisaggregateassetsintoseparatebusinesseswithdifferentreturnprofiles.Retailbrandsemergetocollectandpackageservicesfromdisaggregatedunits.Themarketisfurtherfragmentedbygovernment,municipalityandalternativeproviders(e.g.,localhousingassociationsorutilities)thatextendultra-fastbroadbandtograyareas,whileprivateinfrastructureinvestmentsarelimitedtodenselypopulatedareas.Serviceproviderslookforgrowththroughhorizontalexpansionandpremiumconnectivityservicessoldtoapplica-tionandcontentproviders,aswellasbusinessesandconsumers.ClashofGiants:Providersconsolidate,cooperateandcreatealliancestocompetewithOTTplayersanddevice/networkmanufacturersthatareextendingtheircommunicationfootprints.Mega-carriersexpandtheirmarketsthroughselectiveverticals(e.g.,smartelectricitygridsande-health)forwhichtheyprovidepackagedend-to-endconnectivitysolutions.Telcosdevelopaportfolioofpremiumnetworkservicesandbetter-integrateddigitalcontentcapabilitiestodelivernewexperiences.GenerativeBazaar:BarriersbetweenOTTandnetworkprovidersblurasregulation,technologyandcompetitiondriveopenaccess.Infrastructureprovidersintegratehorizontallytoformalimitednumberofnetworkco-operativesthatprovidepervasive,affordableandunrestrictedopenconnectivitytoanyperson,deviceorobject,includingarapidlyexpandingclassofinnovative,asset-lightserviceproviders.OurmodelingofthefourscenariossuggestsGenerativeBazaarasthemostattractiveoutcomeintermsofrevenue,profit-abilityandcashflowprojections,followedbyClashofGiants.SurvivorConsolidationandMarketShakeoutareclearlylessattractivescenarios,bothofwhichimplyacontractingandchallengedindustry.Ifthecurrentgrowthmodel,basedonanever-expandingcustomerbase,persists,theindustryislikelytoexperienceflatordecliningrevenues.Insuch