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THESTATEOFONLINERETAILINGTHIRDQUARTER2001UPDATEDecember10,2001-1-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPTBACKGROUNDThisdocumentprovidesthefindingsfromtheThirdQuarter2001Updateof“TheStateofOnlineRetailing”,aShop.orgsurveyconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroupThethirdquarterfindingsarebasedondataprovidedby63onlineretailerswhocompletedthesurvey,supplementedwithretailerinterviewsconductedbetweenNovember27andDecember4Datacollectedwereforthecalculationofourcoremetrics,whichrepresentasubsetoftheperformancebenchmarkspublishedinourmostrecentannualreport,TheStateofOnlineRetailing4.0-2-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPT比较优势之投资固定收益投资FixedIncomeBuy/SelldecisionProcessGuidelinesforAssetAllocationFixedIncomeInvestmentStrategy-Selectsecurity-BuyorsellCreditAnalystEconomyAnalystCreditviewRelativevalueviewSelectratesorcreditassetsclass-Selectindustry-Determineyieldandcreditspreadintervals-DetermineassetvolumeStructureofportfolioInvestmentDecisionCommitteeofCLAMCFixedIncomeInvestmentDecisionCommitteePortfolioManagerInvestmentManagerFixedIncomeMarketAnalysisReportsGuidelinesforAssetAllocationFixedIncomeInvestmentStrategy-Selectsecurity-BuyorsellCreditAnalystEconomyAnalystCreditviewRelativevalueviewSelectratesorcreditassetsclass-Selectindustry-Determineyieldandcreditspreadintervals-DetermineassetvolumeStructureofportfolioInvestmentDecisionCommitteeofCLAMCFixedIncomeInvestmentDecisionCommitteePortfolioManagerInvestmentManagerGuidelinesforAssetAllocationFixedIncomeInvestmentStrategy-Selectsecurity-BuyorsellCreditAnalystEconomyAnalystCreditviewRelativevalueviewSelectratesorcreditassetsclass-Selectindustry-Determineyieldandcreditspreadintervals-DetermineassetvolumeStructureofportfolioInvestmentDecisionCommitteeofCLAMCFixedIncomeInvestmentDecisionCommitteePortfolioManagerInvestmentManagerGuidelinesforAssetAllocationFixedIncomeInvestmentStrategy-Selectsecurity-BuyorsellCreditAnalystEconomyAnalystCreditviewRelativevalueviewCreditAnalystEconomyAnalystCreditviewRelativevalueviewSelectratesorcreditassetsclass-Selectindustry-Determineyieldandcreditspreadintervals-DetermineassetvolumeStructureofportfolioInvestmentDecisionCommitteeofCLAMCFixedIncomeInvestmentDecisionCommitteePortfolioManagerInvestmentManagerFixedIncomeMarketAnalysisReports-3-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPT比较优势之投资固定收益投资中国保监会《企业年金基金管理试行办法》规定，债券投资比例不高于50%，其中国债不低于20%。实际配置中，为了取得稳定收益，债券所占比例往往较高。债券超额收益持续加减息周期中，研究与判断至关重要。一般意义上，债券收益为4%（中国）。但如有较大波动，可以有超额收益。-4-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPT6.7%6.0%0.86%2.62%-2.41%10.54%21.5%1.0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2003200420052006中债总指国寿资产债券超额收益持续加减息周期中，研究与判断至关重要。一般意义上，债券收益为4%（中国）。但如有较大波动，可以有超额收益。比较优势之投资固定收益投资中国保监会《企业年金基金管理试行办法》规定，债券投资比例不高于50%，其中国债不低于20%。实际配置中，为了取得稳定收益，债券所占比例往往较高。独特的买方优势齐备的资格垄断优势议价能力Support-5-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPT比较优势之投资权益类投资考虑因素权益类品种投资定性指标包括对行业的上下游分析、公司治理结构分析等。定量指标有相对估值和绝对估值，相对估值包括PE、PS、PB、EV/EBITDA等方法；绝对估值包括DCF等方法。-6-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPT-7-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPTPROGRESSIVEREDUCTIONINACQUISITIONCOSTCONTINUEDThirty-ThreePercentDeclineSoFarThisYear38293571454020231814120102030405060708019992000Q31999Q41999Q12000Q22000Q32000Q42000Q12001Q22001Q32001CustomerAcquisitionCost($)2000Average($29)Source:TheStateofOnlineRetailingThirdQuarter1999Update,3.0,FirstQuarter2000Update,SecondQuarter2000Update,ThirdQuarter2000Update,4.0,FirstQuarter2001Update,SecondQuarter2001Update,andThirdQuarter2001Update,Shop.orgsurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroupMarketing33%-8-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPTUSEOFOFFLINEMEDIADOWNMORETHANHALFVERSUS2000AVERAGE0102030405060708090100Q12000Q22000Q32000Q42000Q12001Q22001Q32001ShareofMarketingSpend(%)51413645394959645561Offlinemedia2000OfflineAverage(46%)1999OfflineAverage(62%)OnlineMediaSource:TheStateofOnlineRetailingFirstQuarter2000Update,SecondQuarter2000Update,ThirdQuarter2000Update,4.0,FirstQuarter2001Update,SecondQuarter2001Update,andThirdQuarter2001Update,Shop.orgsurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroupMarketing29712278-9-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPTCATALOGSREMAINTHEONLYSIGNIFICANTOFFLINEMEDIUMMarketing(1)Includesnewspaperinserts(2)IncludesdirectmailSource:TheStateofOnlineRetailing4.0,FirstQuarter2001Update,SecondQuarter2001Update,andThirdQuarter2001Update,Shop.orgsurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroupOnlinePortalE-mailBannerAffiliateprogramTotalOfflinePrintCatalogDirectmailNewspaperinsertsTVOtherofflineTotal2000FullYear27%13%9%6%54%22%8%7%9%46%Q123%19%13%6%61%10%8%7%3%2%9%39%PerformanceBenchmarks(1)(2)Q223%21%13%14%71%5%13%1%2%1%8%29%2001Q328%19%22%9%78%2%12%2%1%1%5%22%IncreaseinportalsandbannersreflectiveofincreasedonlinemediaspendingExpensive,lessefficientmarketingprogramssuchasTV,Print,Newspaperinsertshaveallbeendramaticallyreduced-10-21606-10-WorkshopDocument-SShopBCG3QMediaDeck-MG-NDE.PPTHOLIDAYMARKETINGEFFORTSAIMEDATCLOSINGTHESALEHolidayPreparationsWhichoft