发展心理学研究中个体定向的理论与方法

2011,Vol.19,No.11,1563–1571AdvancesinPsychologicalScienceDOI:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2011.015631563·主编特邀(Editor-In-ChiefInvited)·发展心理学研究中个体定向的理论与方法*(,250014)长期以来,发展心理学研究主要采取变量定向的方法。近年来,随着发展心理学理论的发展和人类发展个体差异的科学事实的积累,个体定向的方法得以发展并且成为发展心理学研究的主要方法思路之一。个体定向的方法关注作为整体的个体,旨在确定有意义的同质性个体类别或亚组。个体定向的方法包括一系列的基本理论原则,具体数据分析方法包括传统聚类分析、基于模型的聚类方法以及配置频次分析等。发展心理学研究需综合运用个体定向的方法与变量定向的方法。变量定向;个体定向;理论;方法B844,,(variable-oriented/centeredapproach),,(structuralequationmodeling,SEM),,(Bergman,Magnusson,&Ei-Khouri,2003;Bergman,:2011-10-28*“”()(3057061230970905)“”(07JCXLX005)“”(EBA080304):,E-mail:[e-mail],&Andershed,2009;Bergman&Andersson,2010),,(Bergman,1998;vonEye&Bergman,2003;vonEye&Bogat,2006;Molenaar&Campbell,2009),,,“”(ecologicalfallacy;vonEye&Bogat,2006,p.412),,(Holistic-interactionPerspective)(DevelopmentalSystemsTheory)(ProbablisticEpigenesis)(Lerner,2006),,,,(heterogeneity)(NewYorkLongitudinalStudy)(DunedinMultidisciplinaryHealthandDevelopment156419Study),Mun,WindleSchainker(2008),4,;Moffitt(2006)Odgers(2008);,—(,2011),,,——(person-orientedapproach),1个体定向方法：涵义与理论原则1971BlockQ,2080,90BergmanMagnussonvonEye(Bergman,1998;Bergman&Magnusson,1997;Bergmanetal.,2003;Magnusson,1998;vonEye&Bergman,2003;vonEye&Bogat,2006)1.1个体定向方法的涵义,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.2个体定向方法的理论原则,BergmanMagnusson(1997),(1);(2),;(3)(constancy);(4),;(5);(6),,,,,,,vonEyeBergman(2003)6,,,(type),(antitype;vonEye,2002;vonEye,Mun,&Bogat,2008),,(Sterba&Bauer,2010;vonEye,2010;vonEye&Bogat,2006),(1),(2),(3),(4),(5),(6),——(equifinality)(multifinality;Cicchetti,2006)11:1565,,;,()()(callous-unemotional,CU)(Frick&Viding,2009),(),()(Silberg,Rutter,Tracy,Maes,&Eaves,2007),,,,,,(,,,,,2011),(),,()(),,,;,,(Frick&Viding,2009),,(,2011),,,()()(Frick&Viding,2009)(),2个体定向的数据分析方法,,,,,()(clustering)(model-basedclustering)(configuralfrequencyanalysis,CFA)2.1传统聚类分析(hierarchicalclusteringmethods)(K-means)(similarity)(distance),Ward,(),,,,,,,,,(Mun,vonEye,Bates,&Vaschillo,2008),156619(heuristic)2.2基于模型的聚类方法(model-basedmethods;Sterba&Bauer,2010;vonEye,2010)(finitemixturemodel,FMM;McLachlan&Peel,2000),(),(mixture-modelclustering,MMC;Steinley&Brusco,2011)(component),,(factormixturemodel;Lubke&Muthén,2005;Muthén,2007),,,,(t),(posteriorprobability),(maximumlikelihood,ML),(expectation-maximization,EM),(),FMM,,,,(),,,,,,,,(latentclassanalysis,LCA)(latentprofileanalysis,LPA)(latentclassgrowthanalysis,LCGA)(latentgrowthmixturemodeling,GMM)Markov(latentMarkovmodel,LMM)(latenttransitionmodel,LTM)2.2.1潜类别分析与潜剖面分析(LCA)(LPA)(latentclassclusteranalysis;Vermunt&Magidson,2002;DiStefano&Kamphaus,2006)LCALPA,()()(),,,LCALPA,LCALPAFMM;,LCALPA,,LCALPA(Muthén,B.O.&Muthén,L.K.,2000;Steinley&Brusco,2011)LCALPA,(factoranalysis),LCALPA,m,LCALPAm+1(Muthén,B.O.&Muthén,L.K.,2000),LCALPA,,2.2.2潜类别增长曲线分析LCALPA,(LCGA),(Muthén,2001;Nagin,1999,2005)LCGA(latentgrowthmodeling,LGM;Bollen&Curran,2006)LGM(),LCGA,(0)LCGA,11:1567,()LCGA,Logistic(zero-inflatedPoissondistribution,ZIP)(censorednormaldistribution,CNORM)(Nagin,2005),,0,ZIP;,CNORM2.2.3潜增长混合模型(GMM)LCGA,LCGALGM(Muthén,B.O.&Muthén,L.K.,2000;Sterba&Bauer,2010)GMMLCGA,LCGA,GMM,()(Muthén&Asparouhov,2006;Muthén,2007),GMMGMM,GMMLCGA,GMM,GMMLCGA,,LCGA,,(),LCGA;LCGA(),GMM2.2.4潜Markov模型和潜转变模型LCGAGMM,Markov(LMM)(LTM)(),()(Kaplan,2008),—(stage-sequentialdevelopment)Markov,Markov,();,(,)1MarkovMarkovLMMLMMMarkov,T1T2T3T44,()16(24),Markov,LMM,,LMM,LCA(),()MarkovLMM,Markov(chain),,,,Markov(FMM;McLachlan&Peel,2000),LMMMarkov,(χ2=Σ[(Fijkl–fijkl)2/fijkl],,FijklIJKL,fijkl)(likelihoodratio),χ2,(Bayesianinformationcriteria,BIC)(Akaikeinformationcriteria,AIC)2.3配置频次分析(CFA;vonEye,2002),()CFA,“”“”(fo)(fe),“”;(fo)(fe),“”,,,(Bergman1,Markov156819&Magnusson,1997;Bergmanetal.,2009)CFA,,,CFA(Bonferroni)αCFA,,,,LCALCGAGMM,CFA,3个体定向研究需要注意的问题,,,,,(Sterba&Bauer,2010;Bergman&Andersson,2010),3.1类别或亚组的效度,,LubkeMuthén(2005),,,“,”(p.38),“,”(Munetal.,2008,p.307),,(Sterba&Bauer,2010;Kreuter&Muthén,2008;Lubke&Muthén,2005),(Moffitt,2006;Odgersetal.,2008),,/(Kreuter&Muthén,2008),CFA(),,(predictivevalidity),(Odgersetal.,2008),,BICAICLo-Mendel-Rubin(Lo-Mendel-Rubinlikelihoodratio,LMR-LRT)(Kreuter&Muthén,2008;Nylund,Asparouhov,&Muthén,2007)BICAICLMR-LRT,p,k()k-1(),,(entropy)(Kreuter&Muthén,2008),,,,LubkeMuthén(2005)(transitionmatrics)kk+1,,,,(Aldenderfer&Blashfield,1984),,,,,,,,11:1569,,,,3.2个体定向的理论原则在个体定向数据分析方法中的检验问题,,,6,,,,6,,;,,(Sterba&Bauer,2010;Bergman&Andersson,2010)“”,(),,,,,,,“”(Bergman&Andersson,2010,p.158),,,3.3个体定向方法与变量定向方法：选择与整合,,——,,,;,,(),(dimensionalidentity;vonEye&Bergman,2003),;,,,“”(Bergman&Andersson,2010,p.158),,,“(LGM,Bollen&Curran,2006)”(Sterba&Bauer,2010,p.251),(Muthén,B.O.&Muthén,L.K.,2000;vonEye,2010;Sterba&Bauer,2010),,,,,(SEM),,1570194结语,90,,(Moffitt,2006;Munetal.,2008;Odgersetal.,2008;,2011;,2011),,20102DevelopmentandPsychopathology20103JournalofPsychology(ZeitschriftfürPsychologie),,,,,,,,,,,,,,陈亮,张文新,纪林芹,陈光辉,魏星,常淑敏.(2011).童年中晚期攻击的发展轨迹和性别差异:基于母亲报告的分析.心理学报,43,629−638.纪林芹,陈亮,徐夫真,赵守盈,张文新.(2011).童年中晚期同伴侵害对儿童心理社会适应影响的纵向分析.心理学报,43,1151−1162.Aldenderfer,M.S.,&Blashfield,R.K.(1984).Cluste