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。、。。。。、。Lee2006[1]、Teo2003[2]、Ahn2004[3]、710061。。F724.6[][]AnEmpiricalStudyoftheRelationshipBetweentheCostofSalesOnlineandConsumers’ExpectedSatisfactionZHANGYueLIQiSchoolofEconomics&Finance,Xi’anJiaotongUniversity,Xian710061,ChinaAbstract:Thesameasthetraditionalsales,Onlineretailersmusttopaythecorrespondingcostforimprovingtheonlinecus－tomers’satisfaction,whichaffectstheirincome.Thisarticleconstructedtheregressionmodelontherelationshipbetweenthecostofonlinesalesandconsumers’expectedsatisfaction.EmpiricalanalysisbasedonactualmarkettransactionsrevealedthepresenceofanasymmetricU-shapednonlinearrelationshipbetweenthecostofsalesonlineandconsumers’expectedsatisfaction.Onlineretailersneedtomakedecisionsbetweenthecosttheyhavepayonlineandcustomers’satisfactionwhichtheyexpecttoachieve,soastoachievetheoptimumbenefits.KeyWords:onlineshopping;thecostofsalesonline;consumers’satisfactionJournalofShanxiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics67··CMYK2005[4]、2008[5]、2006[6]。Lee2006[1]、。Ahn2004[3]、。Teo2003[3]。。2005[4]、、、、、。2008[5]、。、2006[6]、。、、、、、。O－liver1980[7]、、、2007[8]。Bhargava、Choudharykrishnan2000[9]。。。、、、、、、、、。、。。。、。。FishbeinAjzen1975[10]TheoryOfReasonedActionTRA。。、、。。68··CMYK。。。。。、。。yi=gxi+ui1yxu。。1．。。。2．。。、。。3．。satissatis=sn/de－mandsndemand。4．。、。。。。5．。。、、、、、、。69··CMYK、。1．。。。2．。。3．。。4．。。。。5．。。。。6．。201191510151015。。5123545584355543915604195643723C544406。1。1itemnpdemandcopiesmcsnSatiscostpcost1299727320179.16980.09597135825.13182318675520165.1460.00681330271.78263BOB-HOME65811439203281240.01084656052.90324D-701198314216148.528300.900723760.839652181472220164.16510.0034643283.264.37656338785620258140.0017825160368.57147M2089804637205881980.04271176059.393970··CMYK1072035801239923180260.0020976360244.6154…………………………371RB-08754796206840.0008313603403372383382420248.953990.10434497912.4799496257820198.4260.0100853968152.6154818834222074.07950.0277621481.415.59371itemnpdemandcopiesmcsnsatiscostpcost。。。。、、2。12Lnpcost2tR2tR2satisa-14.49989***-2.9187040.023629-1.242836***-9.3675170.199546satis2b-0.742823-1.1171170.003533-0.080665***-4.2075950.047887Lnsatisc-21.89467***-14.023210.358426-0.968419***-38.243270.806012Ln2satisd3.875985***17.407890.4626240.139878***28.158770.692554Pcost1。1a、R0.051b。2d2c。。。。。。71··CMYK33aR0.0673b。0.48。4a0.44。U。4b0.8。、。2c、2d、3b4a2c2d3b4a3b4aU。2d2c2c2d。3b4a2d70%U2d。lny=β0+β1ln2x+u2yxβ0β1u。1．。Eviews2pcostsatis3。pcostLnpcost3a3b4a4bttttsatis-60.64686***12.38885-4.432436***-15.63966satis26.647543***1.6414160.459467***12.23633Lnsatis12.90984***3.112293-1.073506***-14.45263Ln2satis5.767558***8.923231-0.017414-1.504590R20.0672170.4770550.4388980.80725572··CMYK2lnpcosti=β0i+β1iln2satisi+ui3ii=12…6、、、、、。34。43。4F。0.6～0.860%～80%。。3。WhiteWhite、WhiteF19.946、119.044、17.8465%。WhiteF0.673、2.157、2.136510%。———DW10%n100k=2dl=1.52du=1.56DW=1.496dl。5DW=2.01du。5。3。。3lny=β0+β1ln2x4Fxy=lny-β0-β1ln2x5P0x0y0FxyP0x0y0D奂R2Fx0y0=0DFyxyFyxy=ln′y=1y≠0P0∪P0奂DFxy=0x0-αx0+αy=fxfxx0-αx0+αfx0=y0x∈4β00.4891.0540.7531.214-0.043-0.400t5.38815.8897.75313.528-0.543-3.650β10.1400.1320.1580.1230.1240.112t28.15936.94123.93429.35040.35825.102DW1.590521.5911.8941.9011.7791.584F792.916792.916861.396R20.691680.6920.7590.5860.6730.816WhiteTestF19.946119.0440.2671.79917.8460.323P000000000.7660.1670.0000.725。5。β0β173··CMYKx0-αx0+αxfx∈∪P0Fxfx≡0。5Fxf。y=fxx0y0x=x0f′x=f′x0=0Fxfx∈x0-αx0+αF′xy=lnfx-β0-β1ln2x′≡0′ln′fx-β1ln2x′=0f′xfx-2β1lnx/x=0f′x=2β1lnxfx/xf′x0=2β1lnx0fx0/x0=04y=fx0x0lnx0=0x0=14lny0=β0+β1ln2x06y0=eβ04x∈0+∞1eβ0。3satis∈0+∞pcosteβ01eβ0。e6eβ0+β1e26eβ0+4β1。4。β142β1lnx。411。satis∈01-∞0satis∈1+∞0+∞。U。31。。。。。[11]“”[12]。80%20%80%80%。、。“”、、、。。3lnpcosti=β赞0i+β赞1iln2satisi71βββββ74··CMYKpcost=cost/salessatis=sales/demand7lncosti/salesi=β赞0i+β赞1iln2salesi/demandilncosti-lnsalesi=β赞0i+β赞1ilnsalesi-lnde－mandi2lncosti=β赞0i+β赞1iln2salesi+β赞1iln2demandi-2β赞1ilnsalesilndemandi+lnsales88。8Ecs=1+β赞1ilnsalesi-2β赞1ilndemandi=1+β赞1ilnsalesi/demand2i9Ecd=β赞1ilndemandi-2β赞1ilnsalesi=β赞1ilndemandi/sales2i。lnpcost1=0.483+0.14ln2satis110lnpcost2=1.054+0.132ln2satis211lnpcost3=0.753+0.158ln2satis312lnpcost4=1.214+0.123ln2satis413lnpcost5=-0.042+0.124ln2satis514lnpcost6=-0.434+0.113ln2satis615。2．。mcsatis2lnmci=γ0i+γ1iln2satisi+ui16ii=12…6、、、、、。166。6FR220%。16。。6。lnmci=γ赞0i+γ赞1iln2satisi1716。lnmc1=4.192+0.022ln2satis118lnmc2=3.914+0.017ln2satis219lnmc3=3.423+0.023ln2satis320lnmc4=3.97+0.017ln2satis421lnmc5=4.578+0.025ln2satis522lnmc6=4.081+0.026ln2satis6233．。6***γ04.1923.9143.4233.9704.5784.081t78.28688.09350.95549.53113599.7732.921γ10.0220.0170.0230.0170.0250.026t7.4997.1905.0394.6671939.4836.239DW1.9431.6941.9271.8611.9082.01F56.23251.69025.39321.77767.09822.035R20.1350.1050.0570.0470.1520.135WhiteTestF1.7451.0350.2520.5391.6380.139P0.1760.3560.7770.5840.1960.870。75··CMYK。[13]。。、。316。3β赞1i16γ赞1i。316β1ilnsatisiγ1ilnsatisiβ1iγ1isatisβ1ilnsatisiγ1ilnsatisi。。。。。2EEE。FmcesatiseFpcostesatise2424satisE。。lnmci=γ赞0i+γ赞1iln2satisilnpcosti=β赞0i+β赞1iln2satisilnmcilnpcostiγ赞0i+γ赞1iln2satisiβ赞0i+β赞1iln2satisiγ赞0i-β赞0iβ赞1i-γ赞1iln2satisisatis1lnsatisiγ赞0i-β赞0iβ赞1i-γ赞1i姨satisieγ赞0i-β赞0iβ