对流涡度矢量和湿涡度矢量在暴雨诊断分析中的应用研究

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(4):540-548AbstractConvectivevorticityvector(CVV,(a¨e)/)andmoistvorticityvector(MVV,(a¨qv)/)introducedbyGaoetal.in2004,2005,and2007areusedtostudyaheavyrainfalleventinNorthChina.TheresultshowsthatverticalcomponentsoftheCVVandtheMVVarecloselyassociatedwithcloudsandprecipitation.Analysisofdomain2averagedandmass2integratedquanti2tiesshowsthatthelinearcorrelationcoefficientsbetweentheverticalcomponentoftheCVV(MVV)andthesumofmixingratioofcloudhydrometeorsis0.92(0.95),andthatbetweentheverticalcomponentoftheCVV(MVV)andprecipitationrateis0.71(0.47).Cloudhydrometeorscanbefurtherbrokenintoicehydrometeorandwaterhydrometeors.Althoughicehydrometeorsarelit2tle,theycontributemoretotheevolutionofclouds.Analysisoflagcorrelationsuggeststhatminimumcloudhydrometeorleadsthemaximumprecipitationrateby4-5h,andmaximumcloudhydrometeorlagsmaximumprecipitationrateby1-2h.Thelagcorre2lationcoefficientbetweencloudhydrometeorsandprecipitationrateismainlydeterminedbytheweightedlagcorrelationcoefficientbetweenwaterhydrometeorsandsurfacerainrate,onlyonefourthofthelagcorrelationcoefficientiscontributedtotheweightedlagcorrelationcoefficientsbetweenicehydrometeorsandsurfacerainrate.VerticalcomponentsofCVVandMVVarewellcorrelatedwithcloudhydrometeors(inphaseorlagcorrelation)andprecipitationrate,andtheymayrepresentthedevelopmentofcloudsandconvectivesystem.ThelocalchangesofCzandMzleadsurfacerainrateby3h,whichmaybeaprecursorforrainfallandhaspoten2tialsignificanceforrainfallprediction.ThelinearcorrelationcoefficientbetweenthelocalchangeofCzandsurfacerainrateislargerthanthatbetweenthelocalchangeofMzandsurfacerainrate.Therefore,thelocalchangeofCzcanbeusedtoestimatethechangeofsurfacerainrateinoperationalforecast.KeywordsConvectiveVorticityVector(CVV),MoistVorticityVector(MVV),Heavyrainfallevent,Lagcorrelation(CVV,(a¨e)/)(MVV,(a¨qv)/),CVVMVV,CVV057726619/2009/67(4)20540248ActaMeteorologicaSinicaX:(IHR2008K03),(40775036)(2006sdqxz18):,E2mail:[e-mail]©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,CVVMVV3h,,CVVMVV,CVV,,,P4412030,Rossby(1939,1940)az,z/h(h)40,Ertel(1942),PE=a¨/,,Ertel80,Hoskins(1985),,,Bennetts(1979),90,(1995),,,,,(Cao,etal,1995;Cho,etal,1998;Huo,etal,1999;Jonathan,etal,2002;Cray,2002;Cui,etal,2003)Atallah,,,,,,,,,,90,,(2004,2005,2007),(CVV,(a¨e)/)(MVV,(a¨qv)/)),:CVVMVV,CVVMVV,,,CVVMVV??(2007)CVV,CVV(2007,2008)CVVMVV,CVVMVV,CVVMVV,,,?CVVMVV??,CVVMVVARPS(TheAdvancedRegionalPredictionSystem),200481213145:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(()()())2,(C)(M)(Pm)C=a¨e(1)M=a¨qv(2)Pm=a¨e(3)a=¨V+2,e,qv,z,CMPm:C=1[(y9e9z-z9e9y)i+(z9e9x-x9e9z)j+(x9e9y-y9e9x)k]=Cxi+Cyj+Czk(4)M=1[(y9qv9z-z9qv9y)i+(z9qv9x-x9qv9z)j+(x9qv9y-y9qv9x)k]=Mxi+Myj+Mzk(5)Pm=x9e9x+y9e9y+z9e9z(6)x=9w9y-9v9z,y=9u9z-9w9x+f,z=9v9x-9u9y+f,f,f=2sin,f=2cos,f(9u9z-9w9x),,yfCx,Cy,CzMx,My,MzCVVMVVCxCyCzMxMyMzPm250m20500m[Cx],[Cy],[Cz],[Mx],[My],[Mz],[Pm],(q5=qc+qr+qi+qs+qh)q3(q3=qi+qs+qh)q2(q2=qc+qr)[q5][q3][q2]33.1200481208(,)1308,,,(1),ABC3(1a),A()(37.75N,114.53E),133.2mm;B(37.41N,112.58E),107.2mm;C(39N,117.71E),68.7mm730,2950mm,5100mm3.2ARPS(40.0N,115E),9191,27km,43,500m;6h11NCEP,ARPSADAS,,,200481208,24h:Kain2Fritsch,Lin(1983),;Noilhan/Planton,1.5TKE30min245ActaMeteorologicaSinica2009,67(4)©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(a)(b)(:mm)(:5,10,25,50,60,70,100;A,BC3)Fig.1Observed(a)andsimulated(b)rainfall(mm)from08:00BST12to08:00BST13August2004A,BandCrepresentthreeheavyrainfallcenters;contours:5,10,25,50,60,70,1003.324h(1a)(1b),,3,A130mm,,,100mm;B75mm,,;C100km,,AC,C6h6h(2),,,(,2008),,,,,44.1(3540N,112118E,1b)[Cx][Cy][Cz][Pm][q5](3a),[Cz][q5],,0.92,[Cz],[Cz][Cx],[q5],-0.79[Cy],[q5]0.19[Mx][My][Mz][q5](3b),[Mz],0.95[Mx][My][q5]-0.390.41[Pm][q5],0.47,[Cz][Mz][q5]3c,,,[q2][q5],[q3],,[Cz]345:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()()(:mm)(a.120814,b.121420,c.12201302,d.130208;:1,5,10,25,40,50,75)Fig.2Comparisonofreal(solidline)andsimulated(dashedline)62haccumulatedrainfall(mm)from08:00BST12to08:00BST13August2004(a)08:00-14:00BST12August,(b)14:00-20:00BST12August,(c)20:0012-02:00BST13August,and(d)02:00-08:00BST13August;contours:1,5,10,25,40,50,and750.71,99%,[Mz]0.47,98%Cz/Mz(),,,Cz/Mz,,Cz/Mz,Cz/Mz,Cz/Mz,CzMz,CzMz?CzMz,?445ActaMeteorologicaSinica2009,67