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BarrySalvatoreDialoguetextUnit2问2011年,国际能源署预测称,天然气的黄金时代即将到来,在未来25年内天然气产量将增加50%。这一黄金时代对煤炭、石油、核能以及可再生能源会有何影响?In2011,theIEApredictedwhatitcalledthegoldenageofgas,withgasproductionrising50%overthenext25years.Whatdoesthisgoldenagemeanforcoal,oilandnuclearenergy-andforrenewables?答Wedidn'tpredictagoldenageofgasin2011,wemerelyaskedapertinentquestion:namely,areweenteringagoldenageofgas?Andwefoundthatthepotentialforsuchagoldenagecertainlyexists,especiallygiventhescaleofunconventionalgasresourcesandtheadvancesintechnologythatallowtheirextraction.能源署并没有在2011年预测天然气的黄金时代即将到来,我们只是提出了一个相关的问题,那就是:我们是否正在进入天然气的黄金时代?我们的研究结论是,这个黄金时代是可能出现的,尤其是考虑到非传统天然气资源量及其开采技术的进步。问它对人类,尤其是碳排放又意味着什么?天然气的繁荣是不是让我们不必那么着急地寻找可再生能源以解决能源问题了?Whatdoesitmeanforhumanityintermsofcarbonemissions?Isthenaturalgasboomlesseningthesenseofurgencytoworktowardsrenewableenergysolutions？答Butthepotentialforagoldenageofgashingesona但是这个时代的到来有一个重要的前提条件。我们认为,开BarrySalvatorebigif.Exploitingtheworld'svastresourcesofunconventionalnaturalgasholdsthekeytoagoldenageofgas,wesaid,butforthattohappen,governments,industryandotherstakeholdersmustworktogethertoaddresslegitimatepublicconcernsabouttheassociatedenvironmentalandsocialimpacts.Fortunately,webelievethatunconventionalgascanbeproducedinanenvironmentalacceptableway.发存量巨大的非传统天然气是带领我们走入黄金时代的关键,而这需要政府、行业和其他利益相关者共同努力,消除公众对开采活动带来的环境和社会影响的合理担忧。所幸,我们相信,非传统天然气可以以环境能承受的方式来生产。答UnderthecentralscenariooftheWorldEnergyOutlook2013,naturalgasproductionwillriseto4.98trillioncubicmetresin2035,upnearly50percentfrom3.38trillioncubicmetresin2011.Butwehavealwayssaidthatagoldenageofgasdoesnotnecessarilyimplyagoldenageforhumanity,orforourclimate.根据《2013世界能源展望》描绘的核心情景,天然气产量将在2035年达到4.98万亿立方米,比2011年的3.38万亿立方米增加将近一半。但是我们也说,天然气的黄金时代不一定是人类或者是气候的黄金时代。答Anexpansionofgasusealoneisnopanaceaforclimate增加天然气的使用不是解决气候变化问题的灵药。尽管天然BarrySalvatorechange.Whilenaturalgasisthecleanestfossilfuel,itisstillafossilfuel.Ofcoursethereisalsothepossibilitythatincreaseduseofgascouldmuscleoutlow-carbonfuels,suchasrenewablesandnuclear,fromtheenergymix.气是最清洁的矿物燃料,但它毕竟还是矿物燃料。另外,增加天然气的使用还可能排挤能源结构中低碳燃料的地位,比如可再生能源和核能等问既然天然气的黄金时代是可能来临的,那么,我们什么时候能看到可再生能源的黄金时代呢?Asyouhavesaid,agoldenageforgasispossible.Whataboutrenewables?Whenwillweseethegoldenageofrenewables?答Althoughwehavenotyetpredictedagoldenageofrenewables,thecurrent,rapidgrowthofrenewablepowerisabrightspotinanotherwisebleakpictureofglobalprogresstowardsacleanerandmorediversifiedenergymix.Still,makinginvestmentincapital-intensive,lowcarbonpowergenerationtechnologiescarrieschallenges.我们并未对可再生能源的黄金时代做出预测,但是如今全球趋势是使能源结构更为清洁和多元化,尽管尚无明显起色,但发展迅速的可再生能源却表现亮眼。当然,低碳能源技术需要耗费大量投资,有一定挑战。答Inemergingeconomies,renewablepoweroftenprovidesa在新兴国家,可再生能源发电是比新型矿物能源更具性价比BarrySalvatorecost-competitivealternativetonewfossil-basedpowergenerationandisperceivedaspartofthesolutiontoquestionsofenergysupply,diversification,andeconomicdevelopmentInChina,forexampleeffortstoreducelocalpollutionarestimulatingmajorInvestmentsincleanerenergy.的合理选择,也被寄望解决能源供应、多元化和经济发展问题。以中国为例,中国着力解决地方上的污染问题,带动了清洁能源的投资。答Theoveralloutlookforrenewableelectricityremainspositive,evenastheoutlookcanvarystronglybymarketandregion.However,theelectricitysectorcompriseslessthan20%oftotalfinalenergyconsumption.Thegrowthofrenewablesinothersectorssuchastransportandheathasbeenmoresluggish.Foragoldenageofrenewablestomaterialise,greaterprogressisneededintheseareas.可再生能源发电的前景总体较好,尽管各市场和地区会有差别。但是,电力在最终能源消耗中的比重不到20%。可再生能源在交通和供热等领域的增长更为缓慢。这些领域必须取得更大的进展才有可能迎来可再生能源的黄金时代。问当前,随着煤炭、石油、天然气等传统能源日渐枯竭,清洁能源Asthereservesofconventionalsourcessuchascoal,BarrySalvatore以其不可比拟的优势和前景日益备受关注。作为一种清洁能源,核电不仅能带来较高的环境效益,还极具经济价值。oilandnaturalgasaredeclining,cleanenergyisincreasinglygainingattentionforitsunrivalledadvantagesandpromisingoutlook.Nuclearenergy,acleanenergy,boastsbothenvironmentalandeconomicbenefits.问但是随着日本福岛核事故的发生,民众“恐核”心理日益加重,许多国家开始全面检讨核能发展,暂停核准和建造新核电站,对运行中的核电站则进行全面安全检查和整改。您觉得各国的这种担忧是否合理?“因噎废食”、“因震废核”是否是明智之举?However,people'sfearofnuclearenergyhasintensifiedaftertheFukushimaaccident.Manycountrieshavebeguntore-thinktheirnuclearenergystrategy.Somehavehaltedtheapprovalofnewnuclearpowerplants.Existingplantsaregoingthroughthoroughinspectionsandproblemsarebeingaddressed.Doyouthinktheconcernsovernuclearenergyarelegitimate?Isitwisetoabandonnuclearenergyaltogetherbecauseofsomeaccidents?答Thisyear'sWorldEnergyOutlook,tobereleasedin2014年11月将发布最新的《世界能源展望》,其中将特别关BarrySalvatoreNovember2014,willcarryaspecialfocusonnuclearenergy,sopleasestaytuned.WhileIwon'tdiscusswhateachcountryshoulddo,Iwillsaythateverycountryhasarighttodecideontheroleofnuclearpowerinitsenergymix.注核能问题,请予以关注。我不会讨论每个国家应该怎样做,各国有自己的权利决定核能在其能源结构中的地位。答Nevertheless,nuclearisoneoftheworld'slargestsourcesoflow-carbonenergy,andassuch,ithasmadeandshouldcontinuetomakeanimportantcontributiontoenergysecurityandsustainability.话说回来,核能是世界上最大的低碳能源,从这一点来看,核能已经并应继续对能源安全和可持续性做出重要贡献。问假如减少核能在能源结构中的比重,对其他的能源形式意味着什么?对减排和能源安全又会有什么影响?Whatdoesitmeanforothersourcesifthenuclearshareintheenergymixisreduced?Howwillitimpactemissionreductionandenergysecurity?答Acountry'sdecisiontocuttheshareofnuclearinit