SINOTRUST新华信BeijingSinotrustMarketingResearch&ConsultingLtd.Address:F2,Jing’anCenter,8#,BeisanhuanEastRd,BeijingPostCode:100028Tel.:(8610)64606868Fax:(8610)64680450URL:(II)-MadeforICA(China)-Aug.,2002Projectno.:02INICAS012-034-007SINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-1-Content总目录I:Background[5--11]II:ExecutiveSummary[12--23]III:AcceptableInvestmentQuantityForPowerSupplyBureau[24--27]IV:Differentmodelsoffund-risinginundergroundcablingconstruction[28--65]V:Twoconstructionmodeltobefocused:“Separationfromtunnelandcable”&”Tunnelrenting”[66--70]VI:MarketStrategyAnalysisi[70--73]SINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-2-Partone:projectbackgroundBackgroundReviewofResearchPhaseIObjectiveandMethodofResearchPhaseII第六部分SINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-3-BackgroundAshighqualityconductor,copperalwaysperformsaveryimportantroleincablefield.Inrecentyears,coppercableoccupies90%inthenew-constructedundergroundcablebyChina’surbanpowersupplybureauMeanwhile,overheadlineisstillthemajorpartinurbanpowersupplyinglines,undergroundcabletakesonly10%ofit.ItisnodoubtthattoacceleratethetheurbanundergroundcablingbringshugepotentialforcopperconsumptionICA(China)attacheshighimportanceonthethecopperpotentialfromundergroundcablingandtheeffectivewaytoaccessit,SINOTRUSTwasentrustedtodomarketresearchonittobuildICA’smarketstrategyTworesearchphasewasconductedbySINOTRUST(in2001and2002separately):PhaseI:feasibilitytopushundergroundcabling,copperpotential,design–makingchain&keyfactors,targetmarketPhaseII:Effectivewaytopushtheundergroundcabling,marketstrategyintargetmarketSINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-4-Researchresultsretrospectofthefirststage(2001)ResearchgoalResearchapproachMainconclusionSINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-5-Researchgoalofthefirststage(2001)FeasibilityofpushingtheundergroundcablingSituation&featureofundergroundcablingDecisionchainanddecisionfactorpushingtheundergroundcablingCopperpotentialTargetmarketSINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-6-Researchapproachofthefirststage(2001)ProjectEvaluationDeskresearchExpertsfocusgroup–ForecastofundergroundcablinginChina–KeyfactorsandeffectivepushingmethodUndergroundcablingconstructionsurveyIn-depthinterviewon6keycitiesTelephonesurveyon24cities–ThecurrentsituationofChina'surbanconstructionofcable,thetypicalcasesofinfluencefactor,decision-makingmechanism,characteristicdifference,cableconstruction–Conditionandcoverageofundergroundcablingintargetcities–Responds:chiefofpowersupplybureauandplanningcommittee–TargetingArea:shenzhen、qingdao、zhuhai、tianjin、wuhan、xi’an、chengdu、nanjing–Responds:chiefoftechniqueandoperatingdepartmentinlocalpowersupplybureausExpertsattended:•StatePowerGroup•BeijingUrbanConstructionGroup•StateAcademyPowerScience•AssociationofChinaPowerEnterprises•BeijingCityConstructionPlanningInstitute•BeijingPowerSupplyBureau•Planning&DesigningInstituteofConstructionMinistrySINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-7-Theperfectopportunitytopush推动电缆入地存在良好的市场机遇中国城市化率突破30%,进入城市化加速发展时期在供电方式的选择上,中国的城市政府普遍倾向于电缆供电,关注市容市貌个别城市已经形成了较好的电缆入地建设解决办法,为电缆供电的的规模推广提供了实践多数城市电缆化水平仅有10-20%,电缆入地的潜在需求很大,由此带来的电缆用铜潜力非常可观按照目前城市发布的2001-2010年道路建设计划,城市需要铺设的电缆量非常可观,多数大中城市的市区电缆化率计划在70-80%,而目前的实际水平是10-20%2002-2006期间,如果所关注的20个重点城市能够实现架空线入地计划,电缆用铜的消费潜力将达到239,040吨根据城市需要改造的架空线的规模,建设的实力等因素,20个大中城市被选择为适宜优先推广架空线入地的地方:上海、北京、长春、昆明、武汉、厦门、青岛、成都、郑州、哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔、沈阳、大连、杭州、兰州、西安、南京、温州、烟台、宁波、第一阶段(2001)主要研究结论-1SINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-8-目前城市电缆供电的应用比例还很低,电缆化率同需要的水平之间差距很大,主要的原因是由于供电企业和地方政府在出资问题上存在意见分歧供电部门是电缆入地的实际建设者,为了节省成本他们倾向于使用架空线,不愿意独自负担全部的电缆建设成本地方政府的规划部门是电缆供电的积极支持者和倡导者,但是他们认为电力电缆不属于基础设施,因而不必由政府负担全部建设费用电缆建设与城市的道路规划建设结合在一起,城市的道路建设管理部门是推动电缆入地的决策部分目前城市规划与电力部门均没有系统的电缆建设规划,电缆入地是作为道路配套设施的内容之一,以单个项目的方式进行第一阶段(2001)主要研究结论-2SINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-9-研究发现,城市的土地储备制度水平对于电缆入地建设有支持作用,电缆入地建设较好的先进城市,其土地储备也比较发达土地储备为城市提供了建设资金来源。电缆建设水平高的城市,多数是由于土地储备提供了部分或者全部电缆建设的费用目前,超过1/3的城市开始实行土地储备和拍卖制度,可以预期未来电缆建设会得到更多的资金支持筹资办法是决定电缆入地水平最关键的因素。目前,已经形成了以青岛的“管线分离”方式和深圳市的“熟地”方式为代表的两种出资方式城市政府和供电局对于电缆供电的优越性有一致的认识,分歧在于是否应该由供电局负担全部建设费用资金来源是电缆建设的核心问题,寻找到适当的筹资方式就解决了架空线入地的难题目前,架空线入地比较成功的做法有:青岛市:“管线分离”方式;深圳市:“熟地”方式;第一阶段(2001)主要研究结论-3SINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-10-Researchbackgroundatthesecondstage(2002)ResearchgoalResearchcontentResearchapproachSINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-11-Researchgoalandresearchcontentsofsecondstage(2002)Researchgoal:Probeintodifferentschemeswhichsolvethekeyfund-raisingproblemonthebasisofstudyingin2001,confirmthetargetmarketduring2003-2006,makethecorrespondingpopularizationtactics.Researchcontents:Thepowersupplyenterprise,totheunderstandingprovidingfundsandproportionofsharinglikedtoacceptResearchdifferentraisingfundsmodeoftypicalcityFund-raisingmodeofconstructionofcablethatmeritattentionandpopularizedTargetmarketresearch:beijing、shanghaiWithcopperpotentiality,tacticsofadvancingSINOTRUST新华信电力电缆入地推广研究-12-Researchapproachofthesecondstage(2002)Thepowersupplyenterprisepaysthewilltoinvestigate:Studytheconstructioninvestmentwayofthecableandinvestmentwaywhichthepowersupplyenterprisecanacceptatpresentineachcity.Investigationmetho