汉密尔顿公司咨询报告新兴市场的电子业（英文版）

Washington,D.C./NewYorkJune2,2003StudyOverviewPresentationElectronicsManufacturinginEmergingMarketsSummaryofKeyFindings1ReportContentsIntroductionStudyRationale&MethodologySummaryofKeyFindingsAboutBoozAllenHamilton(BAH)AbouttheInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC)Formoreinformation,pleasecontact:–IFC–[e-mail]202-473-2258–[e-mail]212-551-65162Introduction3GlobalStudyofElectronicsManufacturingIndustriesTheStudywascommissionedbyIFCTheStudywascarriedoutbyanexperiencedinternationalBoozAllenHamiltonteaminclosecollaborationwithIFCSectorTeamsTheprimary&secondaryresearchwasconductedbetweenAprilthroughJune20034StudyRationale&Methodology5TheStudyassessedthecurrentroleandtrendsofelectronicsmanufacturinginemergingmarketsStudyObjectivesStudyObjectivesAssessthecurrentlevelofelectronicsmanufacturingactivityinemergingmarkets–Bycountry–Bytechnology–ByendmarketapplicationUnderstandthecurrentinvestmentdrivers–Majorinvestmenttrends–Marketaccess&costpositionsProjectfutureinvestmentflows–Sizeandtimingofinvestmentflows–Levelofinvestmentflowbycountryandtechnology–TypeandsizeofinvestorAssessthecurrentlevelofelectronicsmanufacturingactivityinemergingmarkets–Bycountry–Bytechnology–ByendmarketapplicationUnderstandthecurrentinvestmentdrivers–Majorinvestmenttrends–Marketaccess&costpositionsProjectfutureinvestmentflows–Sizeandtimingofinvestmentflows–Levelofinvestmentflowbycountryandtechnology–TypeandsizeofinvestorStudyMethodologyStudyMethodology117Industryinterviewscompleted–Largemulti-nationalcorporations–RegionalCorporations–Localcorporations–PrivatecapitalsourcesSynthesizedexternalresearchandinternalreportstosizemarketsAllgeographiesexamined–Asia-Pacific–EasternEurope–Africa–CentralandSouthAmerica–NorthAmerica–WesternEurope–JapanTheentireend-to-endelectronicsmanufacturingvaluechainwasincluded117Industryinterviewscompleted–Largemulti-nationalcorporations–RegionalCorporations–Localcorporations–PrivatecapitalsourcesSynthesizedexternalresearchandinternalreportstosizemarketsAllgeographiesexamined–Asia-Pacific–EasternEurope–Africa–CentralandSouthAmerica–NorthAmerica–WesternEurope–JapanTheentireend-to-endelectronicsmanufacturingvaluechainwasincludedSource:BoozAllenHamilton6Thisstudyfocusedonthecurrent&futureextentofelectronicsmanufacturingactivityinemergingmarketsCountriesincludedinemergingmarketdefinitionEmergingCountryDefinitions7SummaryofKeyFindings8Majorfindings–emergingmarketeconomicsarecompellingProductionatthelowestcostisrequiredtosurviveinhyper-competitiveelectronicsmarketsOvertime,developingcountriesgaintheabilitytoperformhighervalueaddedservices(forexample:design,testing,customercare),whicharealsobeginningtofollowthesamepattern---countrieslikeChinaarealsonowincreasinglyimportantendmarketsLowcostproductionbasesareusedbothforexportsandtoserveindigenousmarketsAssuppliersbecomemoreplentiful,boththeabilitytoservelocalcustomersandtheabilitytoreducecostsisincreasedcreatingcompetitiveadvantagesthataredifficulttoduplicateincountrieswithlowerenduserdemandlevelsProductionatthelowestcostisrequiredtosurviveinhyper-competitiveelectronicsmarketsOvertime,developingcountriesgaintheabilitytoperformhighervalueaddedservices(forexample:design,testing,customercare),whicharealsobeginningtofollowthesamepattern---countrieslikeChinaarealsonowincreasinglyimportantendmarketsLowcostproductionbasesareusedbothforexportsandtoserveindigenousmarketsAssuppliersbecomemoreplentiful,boththeabilitytoservelocalcustomersandtheabilitytoreducecostsisincreasedcreatingcompetitiveadvantagesthataredifficulttoduplicateincountrieswithlowerenduserdemandlevelsEmergingMarketInvestmentsareDrivenbyCompellingEconomicsEmergingMarketInvestmentsareDrivenbyCompellingEconomicsEngineeringandDesignLaborCostsDropby60-90%InEmergingMarketsEngineeringandDesignLaborCostsDropby60-90%InEmergingMarketsChinaistheDominantPlayer–andItsRoleisDramaticallyExpandingChinaistheDominantPlayer–andItsRoleisDramaticallyExpandingDevelopingcountries,particularlyIndia,China,andRussia,haveanabundanceofhighlytrainedtechnicallyqualifiedlaborLaborforhigherorderfunctions,suchasdesignservicesandengineeringhavebeguntomigratetodevelopingcountriesThemigrationwillaccelerate,drivenbymuchlowersalaries(upto90%belowdevelopedworld),benefitsandrecruitingcostsDrivenbycompellingeconomics,engineeringanddesignfunctionswillincreasinglymovetodevelopingcountriesoverthenextfiveyears,althoughthetransitionwilltrailthemorerapidshiftinproductionDevelopingcountries,particularlyIndia,China,andRussia,haveanabundanceofhighlytrainedtechnicallyqualifiedlaborLaborforhigherorderfunctions,suchasdesignservicesandengineeringhavebeguntomigratetodevelopingcountriesThemigrationwillaccelerate,drivenbymuchlowersalaries(upto90%belowdevelopedworld),benefitsandrecruitingcostsDrivenbycompellingeconomics,engineeringanddesignfunctionswillincreasinglymovetodevelopingcountriesoverthenextfiveyears,althoughthetransitionwilltrailthemorerapidshiftinproduction16%