科尔尼-咨询报告-在数字经济中竞争

A.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/1November17,1999NorthwesternUniversityHighTechClubCompetingintheDigitalEconomyA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/2AgendaIntroduction—WhatistheDigitalEconomy?DriversoftheDigitalEconomyNewBusinessPractices—WhatDoesitTaketoWin?•Time-ValueCompetition•Contentandcontainers•IntelligentMarkets-theDigitalValueNetwork•Intelligentexecution-competingoninsight•IntelligentorganizationsA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/3IntroductiontotheDigitalEconomyA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/4DigitalEconomyThelastthreedecadeshaveseentheemergenceofadigitaleconomycharacterizedbyanincreasedemphasisoncomputingandcommunicationsThisincreaseduseofcomputingandcommunications(“digitization”)ischangingtheworldofbusinessIndustrialEconomyPre-IndustrialEconomyPre-18501850-19601960-PresentA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/5ThisperiodiscomparabletopreviouseconomicupheavalsandimpactsallindustriesNeweconomiesemergeattheinflectionpointofpreviouseconomiesandco-existwiththeirpredecessors170018001900AgriculturalEconomyIndustrialEconomyDigitalEconomy2000WorldEconomyPresentDayA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/6Informationisbecomingthekeyinput,whichischangingthewaybusinessesoperateandthenatureofworkRatioofExpendituresonInformationtoProductionTechnology198019751970196500.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91983806040201820184018601880190019201940196019801995Notes:(1)Consistsofserviceworkers,includingpositionssuchasfinance,marketing,etc.inindustrialcompanies(2)ConsistsofphysicalworkersinindustrialfirmsSources:“InformationTechnologyandtheCorporationofthe1990s”(1994),U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(1996)U.S.EmploymentByOccupation(PercentOfTotal)IT$PT$TypeOfWorker“KnowledgeWorkers”(1)“TouchLabor”(2)AgricultureA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/7Digitizationallowsworktooccuranytime,anyplaceleadingtoadramaticincreaseinglobalactivityDrivers•Reducedcostsofcommunication•Immediateaccesstoinformation•Rapiddiffusionoftechnology•Increasedaccesstonewmarkets•IncreasednumberofcompetitorsSources:F.C.C.,U.S.DepartmentofTreasury215560U.S.DirectOverseasInvestment($Billion)835041980199319801993ForeignDirectInvestmentInTheU.S.($Billion)200412120137131980199519851990OverseasTelephoneCalls($Million)A.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/8InformationTechnology’sShareoftheGDPcontinuestogrow,fuelingtheDigitalEconomy4.24.54.96.16.48.20123456789197719801985199019931998%ofGDPA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/9DriversoftheDigitalEconomyA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/10AdvancesintechnologyandimprovementsininformationmanagementaredrivingdigitizationMetcalfe’sLawofNetworkValueGreaterStorageCapabilitiesCheap,DeregulatedCommunications•InternetAccess•Pervasiveemailusage•JavaandJini•FixedandremovableHarddrives•CD-ROMs•DVDs•Telephones•Satellites•Faxes•ModemsIncreasinglyDigitizedBusinessProcessesMoore’sLawofMicrocomputing•Microprocessors•Personalcomputers•Workstations•“Smart”products(Embeddedcomputing)A.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/11Moore’sLawofMicrocomputingEvery12-18months,theprocessingpowerofmicrochipsdoubles197219761980198819921996200020042008103104105106107108109400480808086802868038680486PentiumPentiumPro80786TransistorsperChipDateA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/12Moore’sLawofMicrocomputingAndwitheachsuccessivegeneration,thepriceperMIPSplummets23050163.420501001502002501991199419951997$perMIPSA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/13Metcalfe’sLawofNetworkValueThevalueofthenetworkgrowsexponentiallyasthenumberofmembersornodesonthenetworkgrowsNumberofMembersValueofNetworkExtranet/sharednetworkManufacturersDistributorsSuppliersLogisticsA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/14GreaterStorageCapabilityAswiththeincreasingprocessingpower(Moore’sLaw),storagedensityforalltypesofmediaisgrowingatastaggeringrateallowingdata,images,sound,andothermasscontenttobestoredandaccesseddigitally0481216201H972H971H982H981Q992H991H002H000501001502002501995199619971998199920002001DesktopHardDriveCapacityGigabytesMegabytesDesktopMemoryCapacityA.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/15Cheaper,DeregulatedTelecommunicationsTelecommunicationswasoneofthelastindustriestofalltode-regulationglobally—stillinprocess.Beforede-regulationwehadGrove’sLaw—telecommunicationsbandwidthdoubleseveryhundredyears(somewhatinjest).Wherede-regulated,pricehasplummeted,serviceandbandwidthhaveincreasedBandwidthtothehomeisrisingataratecommensuratewithMoore’sLawandthegrowthofstoragemediumModemSpeed/TypeTransferTime9.6Kbpsmodem2.3hours14.4Kbpsmodem1.5hours28.8Kbpsmodem46minutes128KbpsISDN10minutes1.54MbpsT-1connection52seconds4Mbpscablemodem20seconds8MbpsADSLtechnology10seconds10Mbpscablemodem8secondsSource:FCC,CSDocketNo.96-496,1997;ADSLfromWerbach1997,p.75.A.T.Kearney9/2717/pd/16PuttingitallTogetherWhentakentogether,thecombinedeffectsofincreasedcomputingpower,networkgrowth,storagecapacitygrowth,andbandwidthgrowthprovideentirenewcomputingcapabilitieswitheachsuccessivegeneration•Theideaofareal-timevideophone—relyingonbandwidth,computingpower,andstorage—wasoncesciencefictionandisquicklybecomingareality•Distributingdigitalqualitypre-recordedandlivemusicandvideo,againrelyingonbandwidth,computingpower,andstorage,hasbecomearealityonlyinthepastyearForwardthinkingcompaniesareemployingthesenewtechnologycapabilitiestobreaktherules,tran