中小企业投资风险评估与防范

毕业设计（论文）题目中小企业投资风险评估与防范中小企业投资风险评估与防范［摘要］市场经济体制下，进行投资活动是中小企业财务工作的一项重要内容，有效的投资活动能达到企业资源的最佳配置和生产要素的最优组合，是企业增加利润的源泉，但风险贯穿于企业财务活动的全过程，任何投资活动都有其特定的投资风险。“金融大鳄”索罗斯有句名言：“没有风险就不能称之为事业，但重要的是要知道什么地方有风险，给自己留有出路和活路。”因此，企业经营者需做好投资风险的成因分析，制定出能够防范、控制、管理投资风险的具体措施，以达到降低风险、改善经营管理和提高企业效益的目的。［关键词］中小企业投资风险风险评估EvaluationandPreventionofInvestmentRiskintheSMEs[Abstract］Underthemarketeconomysystem,investmentactivityisanimportantpartofSMEsfinancialwork.Effectiveinvestmentactivitiescanachievethebestconfigurationofenterpriseresourcesandtheoptimalcombinationofproductionfactors.Itisthesourceoftheenterprise'sprofit,buttheriskofrunningthroughtheentireprocessofenterprisefinancialactivities,anyinvestmentactivitieshasitsspecificinvestmentrisks.FinancialpredatorsSorossaying:Withoutriskyoucannotcallit,butitisimportanttoknowwheretheriskisandleavethewayoutandthemeansofsubsistenceforyourself.Therefore,enterprisemanagersneedtodoagoodjobofinvestmentriskanalysisofthecausesandworkedouttoprevent,control,andspecificmeasuresformanagementofinvestmentrisksinordertoachievereducingtherisks,improvingmanagementandenterprisebenefitforthesepurposes.[Keywords]SMEsInvestmentRiskRiskEvaluation目录一、投资风险概述·······················································································1（一）投资风险的概念··············································································1（二）投资风险的基本特征········································································1（三）投资风险的分类··············································································2二、投资风险的表现形式··············································································3（一）经营风险·······················································································3（二）财务风险·······················································································3（三）市场风险·······················································································3三、中小企业投资风险产生的原因··································································4（一）中小企业投资风险产生的宏观因素·····················································4（二）中小企业投资风险形成的内部因素·····················································5四、中小企业投资风险评估···········································································6（一）投资报酬变异系数法········································································6（二）模糊综合估计法··············································································7五、中小企业投资风险防范···········································································8（一）树立宏观经济意识···········································································8（二）加强对投资中财务风险的控制····························································9（三）规范投资行为，提高企业的投资决策水平············································9（四）树立危机意识，建立有效的风险识别与预警系统···································9（五）采用科学的决策方法·······································································10结论········································································································10致谢语·····································································································11参考文献··································································································12一、投资风险概述（一）投资风险的概念我国学者对风险概念的研究，大致分为两种观点：一是指损失的不确定性；二是未来结果的不确定性，即认为风险既能够给主体带来威胁也能带来机会。我国企业会计制度将投资定义为：“企业通过分配来增加财富,或为谋求其他利益,而将资产让渡给其他单位所获得的另一项资产”。所以投资风险就是指企业在进行短期或长期投资的过程中，由于对未来情况不了解或不完全了解，或由于生产经营等方面的问题，致使投入的资金不能产生预期的投资效益，导致企业盈利、偿债能力下降，甚至于出现亏损的可能性。投资风险是投资活动的必然伴生物，是风险应用的特殊领域，是企业投资决策时必须考虑的一项特种风险。企业投资活动一般与未来某一时间的经济有关联，但人们不可能对未来的发展分析得准确无误，这必将与预期结果产生偏差的不确定性，以致投资出现差错，从而导致投资风险的出现。企业投资风险就是企业进行投资时实际产生的报酬与预期报酬之间的可能偏离程度。可见，投资风险不仅关系到投资活动的成败，而且与整个企业经济实力的强弱息息相关，在很大程度上影响着企业的生存发展。【1】（二）投资风险的基本特征1、普遍性企业只要从事一定投资活动，就必须承担一定的风险。并且在投资过程中的每个阶段都存在着风险发生的可能性。风险是普遍存在的，因而其管理也具有普遍意义。2、客观性投资风险的存在不以人的意志为转移，它与客观环境和一定的时空条件相联系，损失的发生和危害程度也是不确定的。但有一定的规律性，我们可以在投资实践中发挥主观能动性去认识其客观性。【2】3、两重性经济学家通过研究风险在经济活动中的意义和影响，揭示了经济生活中一个基本现象：风险与收益并存，二者存在着同方向变动的趋向。投资风险也是风险与收益的统一体，投资风险是企业发展的动力和成功的机遇。所承担的风险幅度越大，要求的回报率就越高，它要求对其承担的额外风险给以补偿，即风险报酬。风险具有约束和驱动双重效应，这也是企业之所以宁愿接受风险发生带来的损失，也要追求高风险项目的原因所在。4、可测定性风险在很大程度上具有不可计量性。但导致风险的不确定性因素产生的影响集中体现在预期收益上，我们可以此来预测风险程度的大小。投资者可对不同方案进行比较，在风险和收益组合中找出一个恰当的投资方案，使投资者实现预期的收益和可以接受的风险。5、负面性由于风险是不确定因素带来的不能产生预期收益的可能性，因而就意味着存有潜在的损失。任何一个投资者宁愿选择肯定的某一报酬也不愿选择不肯定的同一报酬；在报酬相同的情况下，人们都会选择风险小的投资。这些现象反映了投资风险的负面性，它影响着投资者的行为。【3】（三）投资风险的分类1、企业的投资风险按照投资对象的不同，可以分为实业投资风险与金融投资风险实业投资风险是指企业内部与生产经营活动有关的投资，以及对外的实业资本投资过程中投资项目达不到预期收益的可能性。它包括长期投资风险和短期投资风险这两部分。金融投资风险是企业在以基本金融商品和衍生金融商品为载体的资本投资过程中投资项目达不到预期收益，从而影响企业金融投资收益实现的可能性。随着资本证券化和衍生金融工具的大量创新，资本的虚拟化程度越来越高，金融投资风险不断加大。【4】2、企业的投资风险按照其可分散程度可以分为系统性风险与非系统性风险系统性风险(不可分散风险)是不能通过分散化投资消除的风险。它是由影响整个市场的事件所引起的，反映的是某一特定项目的报酬率相对于其他项目的报酬率的变动程度。市场对投资者承担的不可分散风险给予补偿，即投资风险和报酬相匹配。它主要包括：市场风险、政策法律风险、宏观经济风险、社会风险和不可抗力风险等。非系统性风险(可分散风险)是可以通过分散化投资消除的风险。可分散风险由与企业相关的一些重要事件引起，基本上是随机的，分散化投资可以消除它们带来的影响。因此，只要进行科学的投资决策，可分散风险就不会对报酬产生不利影响。它主要包括：技术风险、生产风险、管理风险等。【5】二、投资风险的表现形式（一）经营风险由于企业经营情况的不确定性造成的盈利状况波动而导致投资预期目标无法实现的风险，来自于企业外部和内部两个方面。外部风险指外部经济环境对企业经营的影响。宏观经济形势的影响对企业来说是不可控制的，具体表现在项目投资过程中或回报期内，政府运用货币政策、财政政策及投资政策等调控手段对与项目相关的行业政策施加的影响。如调整国民经济计划、增加税收、取消某些项目或颁布新