贝恩咨询分析方法-PenetrationCurve

Author:NancyGreenePenetrationCurve(S-Curve)March1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.PenetrationCurvesBOS2Agenda•Concept•Application•Caseexample•MethodologyCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.PenetrationCurvesBOS3•Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases:–earlyadoption/trial–massadoption–saturation/substitution–decline•Theproductlife-cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern,calledanS-curve(orpenetrationcurve)•Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime,andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase,penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproductsWhatisaPenetrationCurve?(S-Curve)PenetrationCurvesBOS4ProductLife-CycleTimeVolumeProductscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases.Earlyadoption/trialMassadoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDrivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct’sinitialgrowthTheproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket;characterizedbyrapidproductgrowthTheproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket,orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycleThedeclineoftheproduct,drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproductPenetrationCurvesBOS5CharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves•Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct,oritcandrivenewmarketstogrow•Severalfactorswillinfluencetheendstate,orsaturationpoint,ofaproduct:–duration/speedofproductlife-cycle–competitiveforces–innovation–culture/societyWhenconsideringpenetrationcurves,thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind:PenetrationCurvesBOS6Agenda•Concept•Application•Caseexample•MethodologyPenetrationCurvesBOS7ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves•Validating/determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproduct•Showingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurves•Predictingthesaturationlevelforaproduct•Determiningmarketentrystrategyortiming,giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproduct•Determiningproductmanagementorphase-out,giventhespeedofnewproducts’adoptionPenetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket.PenetrationCurvesBOS8Agenda•Concept•Application•Caseexample•MethodologyPenetrationCurvesBOS9•In1994,theNationalInstitutesofHealth(NIH)issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria(H.Pylori).Whilepreviously,doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti-secretorydrugs,NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH.Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics.Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms,buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease.•In1997,anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU.S.PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH.Pylori–abloodtestforH.Pyloriisalreadyonthemarket–doctorsmayalsotestforH.Pyloriusingtissuesamplesobtainedthroughendoscopy,arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedure•Ourclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopy–lessinvasivethanendoscopy–moreaccuratethanbloodtestsSituation:•HowlargeisthemarketforH.Pyloritestsovertime?KeyQuestion:ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange.DisguisedCaseSituation(1of2)PenetrationCurvesBOS10•Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995,only5%ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH.Pylori–in1991,thefigurewascloseto1%•InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors’behavior,ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997:–60%saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH.Pylori–15%saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics---withoutfirsttestingforH.Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda“ceiling”ontesting:15%ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH.PyloriwithouttestingforitResearch:•Historicpenetration:–1991=1%–1995=5%–1997=60%•Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationCurveData:Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys,theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints,aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint.DisguisedCaseSituation(2of2)PenetrationCurvesBOS11H.PyloriTestingMarket199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620070%20%40%60%80%100%PercentageofDoctorsTestingforH.Pylori=datapoint=predictedpenetrationcurve(basedonregression)Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS-curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH.Pyloritests.PenetrationCurvesBOS12Agenda•Concept•Application•Caseexample•MethodologyPenetrationCurvesBOS13•Gatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheet•Picksaturationpoint–thisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct’spenetration(i.e.noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer,eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios)–saturationpoint=100%inthisexample•Calculatepenetrationratio–(historicpercent)/(saturationpoint-historicpercent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatioMethodology(1of3)PenetrationCurvesBOS14198919901991199