贝恩咨询贝恩分析技能概要

LeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-1-APrimeronAnalysisOverviewConfidentialDocumentLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-2-TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniques•Graphs•Deflators•RegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysis•Coststructures•Designdifferences•Factorcosts•Scale,experience,complexityandutilization•SupplycurvesDemandsideanalysis•Customerunderstanding-segmentationand“Discovery”-conjointanalysis-multi-dimensionalscaling•Price-volumecurvesandelasticity•Demandforecasting-technology/substitutioncurvesWrap-upLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-3-LOGICANDANALYSISCRITICALTOSTRATEGYDEVELOPMENTKeytostrategydevelopmentislayingout“logic”to•Understandwhatmakesbusinesswork-economics-interactionsacrosscompetitors,segments,time,......•Conceptuallyorganizeclientgoals•Devisewaystoachieveclient’sgoals•Helpclient“makeithappen”Atightlydevelopedpieceofthislogicisanalysis•Reducingcomplexrealitytoafewsalientpoints•IsolatingimportanteconomicelementsLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-4-ANALYSISISMORETHANNUMBERCRUNCHINGAnalysisis......•Integratingquantitativeandqualitativeknowledge•Seeingthebiggerpicture•Thinking-creatively-conceptuallyNot...•Endlesscalculations•Lettingstatisticsdictate/rule•“Classic”scientificrigorLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-5-ANALYTICALBIAS“Everythingcanbequantified”•Notreally,but•Most“qualitative”effectsarebasedineconomics-explicitoropportunitycosts-accuratelyquantifiableornotClienthiresustoanalyzeandobjectify•QuantitativeanalysisisthebasisLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-6-CREATIVITYANDANALYTICALPERSEVERANCEAREIMPORTANTTRAITSFORSUPERIORANALYSTSStrivetoaddressaproblemusingdifferentapproachestotesthypothesesandfindinconsistencies•Triangulateonanswers•NeverbelieveadataseriesblindlyNeverstopatfirstobstacle•Clientsoftenstopshortofgoodanalysisbecausetheyquicklysurrenderintheabsenceofgood,readilyavailabledata•Weneversurrendertotheunavailabilityofdata•Yourcaseleaderdoesnotwanttohearthat“thereisnodata,”butratherwhatcanbedeveloped,inhowmuchtime,andatwhatcostLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-7-WHERETHISPRIMERFITSNodocumentcanteachyoutobeagreatanalyst•Answerslookeasy,butprocessofgettingtherepainful•EachproblemsomewhatdifferentfromexamplesAprimercan•Giveflavorofexpectedanalyses•Showwhichanalyseshavebeenmostproductivehistorically•ExplainbasictechniquesandwarnofcommonmethodologicalerrorsBesttrainingcomesfrom•Experienceinprojectteamwork•DiscussionswithJohnTangandothersYouareexpectedtolocateknowledgeonyourowninitiativeLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-8-DON’TLIMITYOURSELFTOTHESETOOLSTheyareasampleofthemostcommonlyusedtoolsOtherswillbeofuseinspecificsituations•Valuemanagement(CFROI,assetgrowth,etc.)Additionally,notoolcansubstituteforanewcreativeapproachLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-9-TABLEOFCONTENTSIntroductionGeneralanalyticaltechniques•Graphs•Deflators•RegressionanalysisSupplysideanalysis•Coststructures•Designdifferences•Factorcosts•Scale,experience,complexityandutilization•SupplycurvesDemandsideanalysis•Customerunderstanding-segmentationand“Discovery”-conjointanalysis-multi-dimensionalscaling•Price-volumecurvesandelasticity•Demandforecasting-technology/substitutioncurvesWrap-upLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-10-RELATIONSHIPSHAVEMOSTIMPACTWHENDISPLAYEDVISUALLYGraphsandchartsshouldbeeasilyunderstandabletoa“nonquantitative”client•Displayonemainideapergraph•Makethepointasdirectlyaspossible•Demonstrateclearrelevancetoaccompanyingmaterialandclient'sbusiness•Clearlylabeltitle,axes,andsourcesTailorgraphtoitsaudienceandpurpose•Exploration•Persuasion•DocumentationLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-11-CHOOSEGRAPHSCALETHOUGHTFULLYMatchchartboundariestorelevantrangeofthedataascloselyaspossibleSelectscaletofacilitatethinkingaboutproposedrelationshipsUsesamescaleacrosschartsifyouintendtocomparethemLeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-12-LINEARVS.LOGOnalinearscale,agivendifferencebetweentwovaluescoversthesamedistanceanywhereonthescaleOnalogarithmicscale,agivenratiooftwovaluescoversthesamedistanceanywhereonthescale¹01002003004000.010.1110100124816OneCycleLinearLogLog¹Theratioofanythingtozeroisinfinite.Zerocannotappearonalogscale.LeftHeaderRightHeaderShadowBoxSource:©1994TheBostonConsultingGroupAllrightsreserved-13-DATARELATIONSHIPDETERMINESSELECTIONOFSCALEThreeScalesMostCommonLinearLogLogLinearLinear(usuallytime)LogLinearSemi-LogLog-LogConstantRateofChangeConstantGrowthRateConstant“Elasticity”Givennopriorexpectationabouttheformofarelatio