麦肯锡咨询工具－SCPModel

SCPModelThischaptercoverstheStructure-Conduct-Performance(SCP)model.wehaveembracedthismodelasourprimaryintegratingframeworktoconductsituationanalysesduringstrategyengagement.Thechaptercoverstwotopics.¶SCPmodeloverview¶ClientapplicationsTheStructure-Conduct-Performance(SCP)model,whichhasbeensupportedbyextensiveacademicresearch,assertsthattheperformanceofindividualfirmsisdeterminedwhollybytheconductofparticipantsinthatindustry(includingthemselves),andthatconductislargely(butnotcompletely)determinedbyindustrystructure,conductandperformanceovertime.Feedbackloopssignifytheimpactthatperformancewillultimatelyhaveonconductadstructure(andthusinturnonperformanceagain),andtheimpactthatindustryconducthasonstructure.Italsohypothesizesthatexternalshocks,suchaschangesintechnologyorgovernmentregulation,alterindustrystructure,andinturnconductandperformance,overtime.SCPModelIndustryFeedbackStructureConductPerformanceExternalshocksProducersIndustrystructureisdeterminedbytheeconomicsofdemandandsupplyintheindustry,aswellasby“industrychaineconomics”,whichrepresentstheinherentbargainingofcustomers,producers,andsuppliersintheindustry,andthesourcesofthispower(e.g.,verticalorinformationmarketfailures).Conductischaracterizedbystrategicdecisioncompetitorsintheindustrymakegivenindustrystructureandperformance.Examplesincludemarketing,capacity,verticalintegration,operations,andmanagementcontroldecisions.Performancemaybemeasuredonnumerousaxes,includingfinancialperformance,technologicalprogress,andjobcreation.Therearethreemaindriversofexternalshockstotheindustry:technologybreakthroughs,changesingovernmentpolicy/regulation,andshiftsinconsumertastes/lifestyles.DetailedElementsofTheSCPModel•Technologybreakthroughs•Changesingovernmentpolicy/regulations-Domestic-International•Changesintastes/lifestylesIndustryStructureConductPerformanceExternalshocksProducersFeedbackIndustrychaineconomics•Concentrationofproducers•Importcompetition•Diversityofproducers•Fixed/variablecoststructure•Capacityutilization•Technologicalopportunities•Shapeofsupplycurve•Entry/exitbarriers•Bargainingpowerofinputsuppliers•Bargainingpowerofcustomers•Informationmarkerfailure•VerticalmarketfailureEconomicsofsupply•Availabilityofsubstitutes•Differentiabilityofproducts•Rateofgrowth•Volatility/cyclicalityEconomicsofdemandInternalefficiency•Forward/backwardintegration•Verticaljointventures•Long-termcontractsVerticalintegration•Costcontrol•Logistics•ProcessR&D•Organizationeffectiveness•expansion/contraction•Entry/exit•Acquisition/merger/divestitureCapacitychange•Pricing•Volume•Advertising/promotion•Newproducts/R&D•DistributionMarketingEmploymentobjectivesTechnologicalprogress•Profitability•ValuecreationFinanceTheSCPmodelhastwoprimaryusesduringindustrysituationanalyses.First,itprovidesaMECEorganizingframeworktocollectandanalyzehistoricaldatasothatyourteamcangenerateamorecompleteunderstandingofcurrentindustryS,C,andP.Second,itcanbeusedtogeneratehypothesesaboutfuturechangesinindustryS,C,andPgivencurrentorexpectedfutureshockstotheindustry.SCPUsedforPresentandExpectedFutureIndustryAnalysesFutureTodayStructureConductPerformanceFeedbackStructureConductPerformanceFeedbackExpectedexternalshocksHistoricaldate•Identifieskeyissues•Highlightsinformationgaps•CreatesunderstandingoflinksbetweenS,C,andPSCPprovidesMECEorganizingframework•InitialimpactonS•ResultantimpactonC•UltimateimpactonP•FeedbackeffectsSCPprovidesforcingdevicetospeculateabouthowexpectedexternalshocksmayaffectthefutureofanindustryThetrainingvideotapepresentsanexampleapplicationoftheSCPmodelasappliedtothetelecommunicationsindustryinthemythicalcountryofAtlantis.TheexampleillustratesthefirstprimaryuseoftheSCPmodel:asaMECEorganizingframeworktocollectandanalyzedatausefulforunderstandingcurrentindustryS,C,andP.CurrentTelecommunicationsIndustryinAtlantisIndustryStructureConductPerformanceProducersFeedbackHypotheticalExampleIndustrychain•1player•Regulationcreatesentrybarriers•Veryhighcostnetworks•Phonecompanyandregulatorshavebargainingpower•CustomershavelittlebargainingpowerSupply•Lotsofcaptivecustomers•Increasingdemandforphonecalls•FewsubstitutesDemandMarketingCapacitychangeInternalefficiency•NetworksandretailBusinessverticallyintegrated•Limitedincentivesforcostcontrol/productivitygrowthVerticalintegration•Limitedchange•Stablepricing•LimitednewproductsinnovationsFinanceTechnologicalprogress•Slow,stablegrowthEmploymentobjectives•Slow•Profitsincreasing•ROIhighandstableTheexamplegoesontoconsidertheimpactthatderegulationandtechnologybreakthroughsmayhaveonthetelecommunicationsindustryinAtlantisinthefuture.ThisexamplethushighlightsthesecondprimaryuseoftheSCPmodel:asaforcingdevicetohypothesizehowexpectedexternalshocksmayaffectthefutureofanindustry.PotentialFutureTelecommunicationsIndustryinAtlantisIndustryStructureConductPerformanceExternalshocksProducersFeedbackIndustrychain•Newentrantswithlower-costtechnologies•Deregulationslowersentrybarriers•Lower-costnetworksavailable•Bargainingpowermorebalanced,asshiftsfromphonecompanyandregulatorstocust