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中国现存危机--TheEconomistSURVEY:CHINAAdragonoutofpuffJun13th2002FromTheEconomistprinteditionWithWTOmembershipunderitsbelt,andanewleadershipreadytotakeoverlaterthisyear,Chinawouldseemwellplacedtotacklevitalreforms.Butexpectalongwait,saysJamesMilesIFTHEebbandflowofChina'srecenthistoryisanyguide,thecountryisdueforaperiodofmomentouschange.Everydecadeorsosincethecommunistscametopowerin1949hasseenajudderingshiftofgear—thefamine-inducingGreatLeapForward,theviolentfactionalstrifeoftheCulturalRevolution,thestartofeconomicreformsandthenationwideanti-governmentdemonstrationsof1989.Andalreadytwosignpoststothenextmilestonehavecomeintoview.Thefirstwasthecountry'saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)lastDecember,aftera15-yearquest.IntheorythisshouldnotonlyprovidetheworldwithunprecedentedaccesstoChina'smarkets,itshouldalsobindChina'seconomicreformswiththenormsofinternationalbusiness.OptimistssayitcouldeventuallymakeChina'ssecretive,undemocraticandcorruptgovernmentmoreopenandaccountable.PessimistsfearitcouldexacerbateunemploymentandfinancialinstabilityandhastenthecollapseoftheCommunistParty.Thesecondisaquinquennialpartycongressduelatein2002(withnodatesetyet)whichwilllaunchaseriesofleadershipchanges.Thesecouldbethemostwide-rangingofthepasttwodecadesandopenthewaytoatransferofpowertoayounger,perhapspoliticallymoreopen-minded,generation.Itisequallypossible,though,thatthenewleadershipmighttrytoshoreupitslegitimacybybeatingthedrumofnationalismandtherebypushChinaintoconfrontationwithTaiwan,theUnitedStatesandJapan.Rarelyinrecentyearshavetherebeensuchdivergentviewsonwherethecountryisheading.ThatChinahasenteredacriticalphaseofitseconomicreformsisnotindoubt.Butthehopes(orfears)raisedbyWTOaccessionandtheprospectofanewgenerationofleadersareprobablymisplaced.ThewayChinaisrunisunlikelytochangeasaconsequence,atleastnotforseveralyears.WhatwillchangeChinainthenearertermisthehandlingofthefinalandmostarduousphaseofitsreform.ThechancesoffailurearelikelytoriseasChineseleadersbecomeabsorbedinthefractiouspoliticsofsuccession.AndtheconsequenceoffailurecouldbetheveryupheavalthatChineseleadershavestruggledsohardtoavoidsincetheconvulsionof1989.ThetermsofChina'saccessiontotheWTOaremorefar-reachingthanthosesetforanyothernewmemberofthetradingorganisationoritspredecessor,theGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade.TheyrequireChinatoopenhithertojealouslyguardedmarkets,suchasbanking,insurance,telecommunicationsandagriculture.Insomesectors,theloweringoftradebarrierswillcauseunemploymenttorise.Inothersitwillcreatenewjobopportunities.ButtariffbarriersaretheleastofChina'sproblems:itsownarealreadyamongthelowestofanydevelopingcountry.Muchmoreimportant,thecountrystillneedstointroducemanychangesbeforeitcancallitselfamarketeconomy.WithorwithouttheWTO,Chinaneedstomakethosechangestokeepitshalf-reformedeconomyfromcollapsing.Todothissuccessfully,Chinamustmaintainbriskeconomicgrowth.Evenattheofficialrateof7.3%(whichwasprobablyanexaggeration),growthlastyearwasinsufficienttoabsorbthefast-swellingranksoftheunemployed.Inthecomingdecade,Chinaneedstocreate8m-9mnewjobsayear,upfrom5.5m-6.5minthesecondhalfofthe1990s,accordingtoconservativeWorldBankestimates.Itcouldbemore.Yetaverageannualgrowthisexpectedtostickataround7%,about1.5percentagepointslessthantheaverageforthelate1990s.WhereonceChinawasabletoabletoboosttheeconomybyreleasingthepent-uppowerofsectorsrestrainedbyMaoistfolly(firstagriculture,thensmallprivateandmixed-ownershipenterprises),ithasnowrunoutofeasysourcesofnewgrowthpotential.Itmustgetthemarketplacetodeploylabourandcapitalmuchmoreefficiently.Botharestillbeingstifledbygovernmentinterference.China'sstate-ownedbanks,whichdominatethebankingsystem,aretechnicallyinsolventthankstoindiscriminate,politicallyinspiredlendingtoloss-makingstateenterprises.Moribundthoughmostofitis,thestatesectorisstillvitaltoChina'seconomicandsocialstabilitybecauseitemploys(oratanyratekeepsonitsbooks)45%oftheurbanworkforceandreceivesmostofthestatebanks'loans.Thevariousmechanismsthatkeepamarketeconomyrunning,frompubliclistingstobankruptcies,arestillfetteredbypolitics.InarecentbookonChina'sbusinessenvironment,“TheChinaDream”,JoeStudwellputChina'sbankruptcyrateinthe1990satnomorethan0.05%ayear,one-twentieththelevelinAmerica.China'stwostockmarkets,nowadecadeold,remainthealmostexclusivepreserveofinefficientstate-ownedenterprises.Mostofthesharesareheldbythestateoritsemployees,soordinaryshareholdershavenoinfluenceoverthewaythecompaniesarerun(usuallybadly).OneofChina'srichestprivatebusinessmenwhoknowsthemarketswellcallsthem“congenitallydeformedchildrenbornaftertherapeofcapitalismbysocialism”.Sustainedhighgrowthwillrequirestrongdemand,yettheincomesofmostruralresidents(whoaccountfor65%ofthepopulation)havebeenstagnatingforthepastfouryears.Theonlylong-termsolutionwillbetomovethehugeamountofsurpluslabourinthecountryside—atleast150mpeople—intoothersectors.Yetruralcreditco-operatives,theobvioussourceoffundingforruralindustries,arebankrupt,andcitiescannotprovideenoughjobsevenfortheirownpeople,letaloneaninfluxofpeasants.Chi