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TEXTADoorcloser,areyou?“关门者”，你是吗？1Thenexttimeyou'redecidingbetweenrivaloptions,onewhichisprimaryandtheotherwhichissecondary,askyourselfthisquestion:WhatwouldXiangYudo?下次你要在两个难于取舍的、主要的和次要的选择之间做决定时，不妨问自己这样一个问题：项羽会怎么做？2XiangYuwasaChineseimperialgeneralinthethirdcenturyBCwhotookhistroopsacrosstheZhangRiveronaraidintoenemyterritory.Tohistroops'astonishment,heorderedtheircookingpotscrushedandtheirsailingshipsburned.项羽是公元前三世纪中国古代王朝的一位将军。他带领他的部队横渡漳河，突袭进入了敌方的领地。他下令砸锅烧船，令他的部队大为震惊。3Heexplainedthathewasimposingonthemanecessityforattainingvictoryovertheiropponents.Whathesaidwassurelymotivating,butitwasn'treallyappreciatedbymanyofhisloyalsoldiersastheywatchedtheirvesselsgoupinflames.ButthegeniusofGeneralXiangYu'sconvictionwouldbevalidatedbothonthebattlefieldandinmodernsocialscienceresearch.GeneralXiangYuwasarareexceptiontothenorm,aveteranleaderwhowashighlyrespectedforhismanyconquestsandwhoachievedthesummitofsuccess.他解释道，他强加给他们的是战胜对手的必要举措。他所说的无疑十分鼓舞士气，但当他那许多忠诚的士兵眼睁睁地看着他们的船只在火焰中被焚毁时，他们并不赞成他的做法。不过项羽将军的这种砸锅焚船的做法所显示出的天赋，在战场上和现代社会科学研究中都将得到肯定。项羽将军是一个罕见的不墨守成规的人，他是一位经验丰富的领袖，由于他征战无数并达到了成功的顶峰，他深受尊敬。4HeisfeaturedinDanAriely'senlighteningnewpublication,PredictablyIrrational,afascinatinginvestigationofseeminglyirrationalhumanbehavior,suchasthetendencyforkeepingmultipleoptionsopen.Mostpeoplecan'tmarshalthewillforpainfulchoices,notevenstudentsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT),whereDr.Arielyteachesbehavioraleconomics.Inanexperimentthatinvestigateddecision-making,hundredsofstudentscouldn'tbeartolettheiroptionsvanish,eventhoughitwascleartheywouldprofitfromdoingso.丹·阿雷利极富启迪性的新书《可预见的非理性》对项羽作了专题介绍。这本书对看似非理性的人类行为，譬如人类总想留住多项选择机会的倾向，进行了引人入胜的调查。大多数人都不能整理自己的思路来做痛苦的选择，麻省理工学院上阿雷利博士行为经济学这门课的学生也不例外。在调查作决策的一项实验中，几百名学生都不能忍受眼睁睁看着他们的选择机会消失，即使他们很清楚这样做对他们有利。5Theexperimentrevolvedaroundagamethateliminatedtheexcusesweusuallyhaveforrefusingtoletgo.Intherealworld,wecanalwayssay,It'sgoodtopreserveouroptions.Wantagoodexample?Ateenagerisexhaustedfromsoccer,ballet,piano,andChineselessons,butherparentswon'tstopanyoneofthembecausetheymightcomeinhandysomeday!实验是围绕着一个游戏展开的，这个游戏排除了我们通常不肯放手的借口。在现实世界里，我们总会说：“保留我们的选择机会是对的。”想要一个好的例子吗？一个十多岁的女孩被足球、芭蕾舞、钢琴、中文课给累得筋疲力尽，但她的父母不会让她停止任何一项活动，理由是它们有一天可能会派上用场！6Intheexperimentsessions,studentsplayedacomputergamethatprovidedcashbehindthreedoorsappearingonthescreen.Therulewasthemoremoneyyouearned,thebetterplayeryouwere,givenatotalof100clicks.Everytimethestudentsopenedadoorbyclickingonit,theywoulduseuponeclickbutwouldn'tgetanymoney.However,eachsubsequentclickonthatdoorwouldearnafluctuatingsumofmoney,withonedooralwaysrevealingmoremoneythantheothers.Theimportantpartoftherulewaseachdoorswitch,thoughhavingnocashvalue,wouldalsouseuponeofthe100clicks.Therefore,thewinningstrategywastoquicklycheckallthedoorsandkeepclickingontheonewiththeseeminglyhighestrewards.在这个实验里，学生要玩一个电脑游戏:在电脑屏幕上会显示三扇门，每扇门后都会提供一些现金。该游戏的规则是每个人都只能点击100次，你点击获取的钱越多，你就玩得越好。学生每点击一次打开一扇门，他们会用掉一个点击数，但却不会得到任何钱。然而，随后接着在那扇门上的每次点击都会挣得数额不等的钱，三扇门显示的钱总有一扇比另外两扇多。这个游戏规则的重点是虽然每次换门没有金钱回报，可还是会用掉一次点击数。所以，制胜战略是要迅速查看所有的门，然后只点击那扇似乎是钱最多的门。7Whileplayingthegame,studentsnoticedamodifiedvisualelement:Anydoorleftunclickedforashortwhilewouldshrinkinsizeandvanish.Sincetheyalreadyunderstoodthegame,theyshouldhaveignoredthevanishingdoors.Nevertheless,theyhurriedtoclickonthelesserdoorsbeforetheyvanished,tryingtokeepthemopen.Asaresult,theywastedsomanyclicksrushingbacktothevanishingdoorsthattheylostmoneyintheend.Whywerethestudentssoattachedtothelesserdoors?Theywouldprobablyprotestthattheywereclingingtothedoorstokeepfutureoptionsopen,but,accordingtoDr.Ariely,thatisn'tthetruefactor.在玩游戏时，学生们注意到了一个视觉上的变化：如果有片刻没点击某扇门，那扇门就会慢慢缩小并消失。由于他们已了解了游戏规则，他们本应对要消失的门不予理睬。然而，在它们消失以前，他们却迫不及待地去点击那些变小的门，试图让它们开启着。结果是，他们在匆忙回去点击那些快消失的门时浪费了很多点击数以至于最后输了钱。为什么学生对那些变小的门如此依恋呢？他们可能会争辩说，他们紧抓住这些门是为将来多留一些机会。但是，据阿雷利博士说，这不是真正的原因。8Insteadoftheexcusetomaintainfutureoptionsopen,underneathitallthestudents'desirewastoavoidtheimmediate,thoughtemporary,painofwatchingoptionsclose.Closingadooronanoptionisexperiencedasaloss,andpeoplearewillingtopayabigpricetoavoidtheemotionofloss,Dr.Arielysays.Intheexperiment,thepricewaseasilymeasuredinlostcash.Inlife,thecorrespondingcostsareoftenlessobvioussuchaswastedtimeormissedopportunities.在他们为将来多留一些机会的借口背后反映出的是所有的学生都不堪目睹眼前的选择机会被剥夺，尽管这种痛苦是临时的。阿雷利博士说：“每闭上一扇选择之门就如同经受了一次损失，人们宁愿付出很大的代价，也要避免情感的失落。”在实验中，损失很容易用丢失的现金来衡量。在生活中，相应的损失就往往没那么明显，如浪费时间，错过机会。9Sometimesthesedoorsareclosingtooslowlyforustoseethemvanishing,Dr.Arielywrites.Wemayworkmorehoursatourjobswithoutrealizingthatthechildhoodofoursonsanddaughtersisslippingaway.“有时候，这些门是慢慢关闭的，我们没有看到它们在悄然消失，”阿雷利博士写道：“我们可能花很多时间在工作上，却没有意识到我们子女的童年正在悄悄溜走。”10So,whatcanbedonetorestorebalanceinourlives?Oneanswer,Dr.Arielysays,istoimplementmoreprohibitionsonoverbooking.Wecanworktoreduceoptionsonourown,delegatingtaskstoothersandevengivingawayideasforotherstopursue.Hepointstomarriageasanexample,Inmarriage,wecreateasituationwherewepromiseourselvesnottokeepoptionsopen.Weclosedoorsandannouncetootherswe'vecloseddoors.那么，我们可以做些什么让我们的生活恢复平衡呢？阿雷利博士说，一个办法是制止更多的超额预约。我们可以自己减少选择，将任务委派给其他人，甚至放弃一些点子，