©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:RalfDahrendorf,ClassandClassConflictinIndus-trialSociety,Stanford,Calif1,StanfordUniversityPress,19591[]:,,:,1994:2,:,1975,596-597MansfieldEdwin,LongWavesandEconomicGrowth:ACriticalAppraisal,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol173,No12,May,1983,p11441(,510006):,,,,,,;,:;;;:F012;F014;F031:A:0257-0246(2009)05-0051-06,(RalfDahrendorf)1959,,,,(PeterDrucker)1993,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(C1H1Douglas),,(J1A1Hobson),,15©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,2520095NiemiraP1Michaeletal1,ForecastingFinancialandEconomicCycles,JohnWiley&Sons,Inc1,1994,pp153-681[]:,,:,2000,622-624©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,35©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,2030,,,,2007,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,4520095:,:,2005©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,2080,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2007,2004,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,55YoshikoHayashi,TheMacroeconomicEffectofWealthDistributioninJapanandAustralia,OsakaKeidaiRonshu,Vol154,No12,July,2003,pp1117-1271©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:6520095:,200712