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©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(,250014):,,,PSR,,2000,:,,:;;PSR;:X52:A:100523409(2008)0120131204Time2seriesAnalysisinWaterSecurityAssessmentofJipnanCityBasedonEntropyWeightZHANGGe2li,WANGLi2ben,DONGJin2wei(CollegeofPopulation,ResourcesandEnvironment,ShandongNormalUniversity,Jipnan250014,China)Abstract:Globalproblemslikepopulationpressure,waterpollutionandsoonhavealreadymakepeoplerecognizethatthewatersecurityisbecomingmoreandmoreimportant.Effectivelyassessingandmonitoringthewatersecurityissignificanttothehu2mansustainabledevelopment.FirstlythearticlediscussedtheproblemsofwatersecurityinChina,onwhichtakenJipnanastheexample,usedtheimprovedPSRmodeltoconstructwatersecurityassessmentindicatorsystemofwatersecurityinJipnan.In2dexweightsofwatersecurityassessmentindicatorsweredeterminedbyentropymethod.Thengetcompositeindicesofwatersecurityassessmentsince2000,onthebasisofitcarrythroughthecorrelationanalysisandforecast.TheresultsexpressedthatthecompositeindexofJipnanhadbeenincreasingsince2000,withdifferentmodelsofpressure,stateandresponse.Humaneco2nomicalactivitieshaveplayedanimportantroleforthat.Finallysomesuggestionsweretakenforwatersecurityproblem.Keywords:watersecurity;entropyweight;PSR(Pressure2State2Response)Model;Jipnan,20,200032000821,[122],,,,,,PSR,,2000,,,1,,,,,[123],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,3:2006209210::(1983-),,,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[4][526][7],[829],,,PSR(Pressure2State2ResponseModel)[10211],,,,,PSR,,3,,1P(),;S(),;R(),,,,PSR,[12]PSR,3,4,,,1(2000-2005)33.1,(Intervalstandardization)1PSR[2,10]PP1P11P12P13P2()P21P22P23P3P31P32P33SS1S11S12S2GDP(52100)S21S22S23S3(/)S31S32S33S34RR1R11GDPR12R13R14R2R21R22R231PSR,:x=x-xminxmax-xmin:x=1-x-xminxmax-xmin:xmax,;xmin,3.2,,,,23115©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=mi=1wjyij:Si;wj;yij2000-2005(3)32000200120022003200420050.3846110.3906510.444460.6020750.6403920.73784944.1(1)2,2000,2000-2002,2002386.1mm,2003-2005,850mm,,,;;,,,;,2PSR(2)3,3,:0.3660.3520.282,3(2),,,,2000562.72005597.4,,,2000167L2005193L;,,,,(3),;,,,,,GDP,,,,,(3)(4),GDPGDP,4.2DPS,2000-2005,GM(1,1),3311:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(t+1)=2.384980e0.155780t-2.000369C=0.2032();p=1.000()2006-20070.87606,1.02373,5PSR,6a,,,,,,,,2000,,,,,,,,;,,,;,:!:[1],,.[J].,2005,36(9):113821142.[2],.[J].,2003,23(2):2672272.[3],,.[J].,2005,21(3):9211.[4],,.[J].,2005,27(3):1452149.[5],,,.[J].,2005,27(5):962100.[6],,,.[J].,2006(1):82283.[7],.:[J].,2002,17(3):2622269.[8].[J].,2005,12(5):2212223.[9],,.[J].,2003,25(4):37242.[10],.--[J].,1999,12(5):23225.[11],,.[J].,2005(7):629.[12],,,.[J].:,2004(5):5122514.(130),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:[1],,.[J].,2006,28(5):57261.[2],.50[J].,2005,27(3):79285.[3],.[J].,2006,20(2):1442149.[4].[M].:,2005:56257.[5],,,.[J].(D):,2005,35(11):108721095.[6],,,.[J].,2005,24(7):8172822.[7],,.[J].,2006,28(5):43249.[8],,.[J].,1997,16(1):24230.[9].[J].,2001,21(1):126.43115