欧盟交易体系和经济危机对减排的影响

UntanglingtheImpactsoftheEUETS&theEconomicCrisisEmissionabatement:By梁铭铄ArticleinEnergyEconomics·April2015AUTHORSGermaBelUniversityofBarcelona144PUBLICATIONS2,581CITATIONSStephanJosephUniversityofBarcelona2PUBLICATIONS16CITATIONSContents05PartfiveEnligtenmentConclusions04PartfourPartsix06CommentsIntroduction01PartoneParttwoPartthree0203BackgroundData&StrategyPART1IntroductionTheEUEmissionsTradingSystem(EUETS)waslaunchedtocutthecostsofGHGemissionsbyrelyingonmarketmechanisms.ABOUTThe2008/09economicdownturnhasalsoaffectedGHGemissions.ABOUTUNCLEAR:1、howgreatthisimpacthasbeen2、whatshareofthereductioninemissionscanbeattributedtotheEUETS3、whatsharecanbeattributedtotheeconomiccrisis.FORThisfindinghasseriousimplicationsforfuturepolicyadjustmentsaffectingcoreelementsoftheEUETS,includingthedistributionofEUemissionallowances.PART3BackgroundBackgroundTheEUETS：1、Thefirstandlargestmarket-basedregulationmechanismtoreduceGHGemissions；2、The`flagship`policyoftheEuropeanCommission(EC)initsfightagainstclimatechange；3、Itoperatesinthe28memberstatesoftheEU.BackgroundThemainprincipleoftheEUETSis“capandtrade”.Cap:anEU-widecapforGHGemissionssetbytheECthatisprogressivelyreducedeachmonitoringperiod.CompaniesunderthecaparerequiredtocovertheiremissionswithEUemissionallowances(EUAs),whicharehandedoutfreeofchargeorauctioned.Trade:EUAscanbetradedamongfacilitiesorcountriesenablingthosethatrunshortofallowancestopurchaseadditionalEUAsandsoavoidpenalizationintheeventofnon-submission.Backgroundover11,000installationsarecoveredbythepolicy,accountingforaround45%oftheparticipatingcountries'totalGHGemissions2005Thefirstphase200720132012LaunchApilotperiodof“learningbydoing”ThepriceoftheEUAsfelltozero1、Thenumberofparticipantsto302、Thecapwastightenedby6.5%withrespectto2005tocounterthepricedeteriorationwhileEUAsfromthefirstphasecouldnotbetransferredtothesecond.3、TheKyotoProtocol,cuttingits1990levelsofGHGemissionsby8%ThesecondphaseThecaponemissionsisreducedannuallyby1.74%2020Thethirdphase2008TheeconomiccrisisBackgroundThemoststrikingcharacteristicofanyevaluationoftheliteratureassessingtheEUETSanditseffectonGHGemissionsisthatnearlyallthestudiescreatecounterfactualsartificiallyusingBAUforecasts.Butthecounterfactualcanneveractuallybeobserved.Incontrasttotheevaluationsreviewedabove,theanalysisreportedhereuseshistoricaldatatoevaluatetheimpactoftheEUETSandoftheeconomiccrisisonemissionreduction.Agoodbodyofex-postdataisnowavailable.Inthisrespect,thisstudyisthefirstattempttoanalyzetheperformanceoftheEUETSinemissionreductionsbasedonex-posthistoricaldataandtoaccountfortheeffectsofthe2008/09economiccrisis.BackgroundPART3Data&StrategysourcesWorldBankOpenDataSourcesEurostattheCommunityIndependentTransactionLog(CITL)BPStatisticsTheoriginaldatasampleTheoriginaldatasampleTheoriginaldatasampleusedinthisanalysisincludes30countriesandcoversatimespanfrom2005to2012.TheeventualdatasampleTheeventualsampleincludesdatarepresentingtheEU-25(thatis,theEU-28minusBulgaria,RumaniaandCroatia)DataTheeventualdatasampleDataDataDataDataDataDataThedependentvariablesareformedbyalaggedvariable,consumptionofenergycommoditiessuchaselectricity,gas,andcoal(or,alternatively,prices),andotherexplanatoryvariables.Hence,theEUETSGHGemissionscanbeestimatedwiththefollowingfourequations,wherethefirsttwoareusingtheconsumptionofcommoditiesoncewithGDPgrowthratesoncewithadummyvariablefortheeconomiccrisis,andthelattertwotherespectivepricesincludingagainonceGDPgrowthratesandoncethedummyvariable.EmpiricalstrategyEmpiricalstrategyAuthorsperformedanArellano–Bondestimationwithrobuststandarderrorstocorrectforpotentialproblemscausedbyheteroskedasticity.EmpiricalstrategyWherethedependentvariableCO2istheGHGemissionstakenfromCITL,βi,tistheconstantinthemodel,CO2i,t-1arethelaggedGHGemissions,Nace_distheeconomicindustryindexfortheelectricitysector,Gas,Coal,andElecarethepricesforgas,coal,andelectricity,respectively,andC_gas,C_coal,andC_elecarethecorrespondingconsumptionofthecommodities.ThevariableGDP_growthisthepercentagechangeofGDPonthepreviousyear,variablesaccountingforindustryspecificcharacteristicsareintroducedinthemodel;thesecanbeseenas`classical`controlvariables.Inourmodelthesevariablesaresector-speciceconomicactivityvariablesandconsumption—alternatively,prices—ofenergyandfossilfuels.ThedescriptivestatisticsThevariablesincludedinthemodelfulfilldifferentobjectives.EmpiricalstrategyTWOToaccountproperlyfortheeffectsoftheeconomiccrisis.THREETocapturetheeffectoftheEUETSonGHGemissions.ONETocontrolfortheeconomicactivityofthesectorsundertheEUETS.1.AllbutonecountriesoftheEU-25hadnegativegrowthratesin2009resultingasaneffectoftheeconomicdownturn.Toaccountproperlyfortheeffectsoftheeconomiccrisis.About'crisis'1.AllbutonecountriesoftheEU-25hadnegativegrowthratesin2009resultingasaneffectoftheeconomicdownturn.2.Creatadummyvariablethattakesavalueof1ifacountryshowsanegativeannualGDPgrowthrateand0otherwise.Inthisway,on53occasionsthevariabletakesthevalue1andon147thevalue0.About'crisis'About'policy'Intheaboveregression,thevariablepolicyisdesign