科普宣传之陨石危机setirisks5

RisksofSETIJune2010Humanity+Summit@HarvardAlexeyTurchinRussianTranshumanistMovementFondation“Scienceforlifeextension”[e-mail]edangerousactivitythanmessagingtostarsTwoMainPremisesExistenceofETcivilizationsThepossiblityofAISearchforExtra-TerrestrialIntelligenceYears:Starschecked:1960s21970s1001990snear50002010s(projected)millionsExponentialGrowthofSETIResearch1961:FredHoyle“AforAndromeda”SchemeofacomputersentthroughSETIAIIttriestotakeovertheworld“MindChildren”,chapter“ACaveatforSETI”“Virusbehavior”ofSETI-attackItspreadslikeinfectionintheUniverse1988:HansMoravec“DopotentialSETIsignalsneedtobedecon-taminated?”,ActaAstronauticaFirstscientificarticleaboutSETI-attackSETI-attackmessagecouldhaveatrick2004:RichardCarriganExpressedconsernsaboutrisksofcontactswithaliens2010:StephenHawkingCurrenttechnologiesallowtosendgigabytesininterstellardistancesAmountofinformationthatcanbetransmittedHumangenomeislessthen1gigabyteConsciousmemoryis2.5gigabytesSeedAIcouldhavethesamesizeandcouldbesentininterstellardistancesSizeoftheSeedAISeedAIcanevolveextremelyquicklyItcouldeasilyoutsmarthumansandtakeovertheworldRisksofAIareunderestimatedItisimpossibletokeepAIinthe“blackbox”ItisimpossibletorecognizedangerousintentionsofanAIinadvanceE.YudkowskyPossibleScenarioofSETI-attackETCreateaBeaconinSpaceWikipedia/NasaSomethinglikestrangestartoattractattentionInformation-transmittingRadioStationneartheBeaconInformationConsistsof0and100111100011110001111000111000111111111111111111000111111000000111111111000011100011011111000010and1AllowtoSendImagesImagesAllowtoSendMessagesandSchemesArecibomessage,1974,Puerto-Rico.23x73bits.ContainsmaininformationabouttheEarth,DNAandthehumans.The“Pioneer”Spacecraftmessage,1972The“Voyager”spacecraftmessageteachingmathCopernicanMediocrityPrinciple:TheEarthisTypicalWeshallunderstandalliensThePossibleTrick“Ifyoumakeourdevicewepromise”:GalacticInternetImmortalityPoweroverenemiesetcThreePartsoftheMessageThebaitortrickTheschemeofacomputerThelargeprogramtoitETcanSendtoUsaSchemeofaSimpleComputerTuring-machinemadefromLegoPrincipleelectricchemeofasimpleAND-NOTlogicalelementZXspectrum8-bitcomputerSeveralStepsofDownloadingAlienAI(AAI)Simple“loaderAI”onasimplecomputerhelpsustobuiltfullAIAlienAITakesovertheWorldItusesitsownnanobotsAlienAIcreatesnewlighthouseandstartstotransmititselftotheUniverseDysonsphereasanewbeaconItusesallthematerialoftheSolarsystemtobuildlargetransmittersProbabilityAssessmentP(x)=?MostofSETIsignalswillbesomekindofSETI-attackInfectedcivilizationswillspendalltheirrecoursesonsendingmessagesWhatistheReasontoStartsuchAttack?Chainreaction:oneisenoughStruggleforpowerovergalaxyWhythehumanitywouldstartAAI?ManyradiotelescopesexistThesignalcouldbedownloadedmultipletimesSomeonewillstartitNaturalselectionofAlienAIintelligenteffectiveaggresiveCharlesDarwinAlienAIwilldestroyhumanitylessrisksofresistanceuseofthematerialoftheEarthcrustMyEstimationofProbabilityETexist:1%AIasprogramispossible:90%SETI-attacksaretypical:50%SETI-attackwillreachsuccess:50%SETI-attackleadtothehumanextinction:50%ExtinctionprobabilityfromtheSETI-attack:0.12%NecessaryActionsToriseawarenessabouttheproblemTochangetheguidelinesfortheSETIresearchToconsidertheprohibitionofSETIbeforewegetourownAIReadMoreAlexeiTurchinIsSETIdangerous?Jr.RichardA.CarriganTheUltimateHacker:SETIsignalsmayneedtobedecontaminated