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*张明亮(510630)[];;;[]20086,,2007,,200820086,!!!,,[]F1333[]A[]1008-6099(2008)05-0028-05TheNoneconomicInterpretationofVietnamsEconomicCrisisZhangMingliang(InstituteofSoutheastAsianStudies,Guangzhou510630,China)Keywords:Vietnam;Economy;Finance;CrisisAbstract:Fromtheendof2007,theoncesmoothlydevelopedVietnameseeconomymetsomeproblems.InJune2008,ChinesemediabegantomassivelyandintensivelyreporttheeconomiccrisisofVietnam!itsrealestate,stockmarketandsoon.ThepaperanalyzeswhetherVietnameseeconomymetcrisisorno,tandthereasonsbehindChinesemediasreportsoneconomiccrisisofVietnam.ItconcludesthatmostChinesemediareportVietnameseeconomytowarnandhelpChina.2007,,20085,6,,,,!!!,,20086(),,,(一)摩根报告引发的潘多拉盒子?20086,()5,,,(MorganStanley)2008528∀28∀20085SOUTHEASTASIANSTUDIES*[]2008-09-12[],,,,1997,,[1]2[2],:,!(二)国内媒体的跟进,,,,20086!!!,1报纸与杂志#65∃%A28,,!!!?66∃%()B1∃%;B3,,∃,%;B6∃%69∃%[3]69∃%12∃%,,610∃%611∃%∃%610∃%(A4A5)616:∃:%∃:%∃%∃%;618∃85%%616∃%!!!,,∃%∃%68∃,?%∃%617:∃%∃%∃%;618:∃,%;630:∃()%626∃%,∃%2网络,,,:,;,()!!!,[4];[5];:?[6];:[7]:[8];2008[9];[10];[11]21CN:?[12],[13][14],∃%,65,629292,121797,∀29∀SOUTHEASTASIANSTUDIES20085#,,[15],[16],3电视与电台,4686#(三)外冷内热:媒体感冒?,,,20082,,:∃%∃%(TheStraitTimes),∃%2008624∃%?(一)大多数媒体的表述:危机!,(),:,20086268%(78%)[17];203%,6,[18](二)相关学者的解读:危机?,,,,[19],624[20]625[21]:,200,,100,200,200;,,,624∃%,::?:,:,,,,,[22]626,,∃%(三)慎言危机,:!!!,&∀30∀20085SOUTHEASTASIANSTUDIES#&,,!!!∃%(,,2008),∃2007%,2008;,∃:2007%,∃%20082,,75,74%,∋(5,153,23,,,,,,[23],200865%(791%),[24]∃%,[25]!2030,,,,66[26],6,,,!!!!!!,[27]()()5;(),7,?!∃%:,,1997,,,90,[28](一)为什么危机?,,,,,[29],!!!:,,;;,,))(二)项庄舞剑,意在沛公:报道越南是为了中国!,!!!;,,,,?,,,,:,,,,,2006(三)往事需要回首:对比的意义,∃%,∀31∀SOUTHEASTASIANSTUDIES20085#,,,20062006,:,;APEC,∃%2006420,∃,!!!%&∃%20067,,:∃:%;∃%20069,:∃:%;∃%200616∃20%;∃%(2006730),∃,?%∗,,200611,APEC,,APEC,,!!!20086+200620086,,20082006,,;,,,,:!!!;!!!;!!!;!!!25%)),,,,,,,,,,,,,,−[1]PatriciaLu,iVietnamFaces∋CurrencyCrisis(MorganStanleySays,=20601080&sid=aTsaEi_5ljqk&refer=asia,200872[2]MorganStanleyReceivesRegulatoryApprovalforVietnamSecuritiesJointVenture,[3]∃%,=3312,200872[4][5][6](下转第52页)∀32∀20085SOUTHEASTASIANSTUDIES#&∗+∃:%∀,∃%,,:;:NayanChanda,BrotherEnemy:TheWarAfterTheWar,NewYork:HarcourtBraceJovanovich,1986,p.36.∃?%,:∃?%,:50!!!,,∃%,,,∃%KeithBradsher,VietnamsRoaringEconomyIsSetforWorldStage,TheNewYorkTimes,October25,2006%,,2004,481[16]:∃%,()∃%,[17]∃5%,()∃%,[18]:∃%,(),[19]∃:%,:,2000,21[20]:∃%,()∃%,[21]:∃%,,2004,290[22]:∃%,()∃%200839[23][21],293[24]∃3140%,(),[25][21],290,:−(上接第32页)00252OB9/yuenanhtm,l2008629[7][8][9][10][11]=SS,20080613,30122208,2008630[12][13][14][15][16][17]∃65%%,()∃%200872[18]∃%,()∃%200872[19]∃%2008614A8[20]:∃%,[21]:∃:%,=fks_084069086081083074082080084095092082087070093086083074,2008629[22]:∃%,=fks_084069086081083074080082082095092082087070093086083074,2008629[23]:∃%,∃%200869[24][17][25]∃%,∃%2008614A8[26][23][27]PMNguyenTanDungsetsoffforUSvisit,=20080622095709,2008630[28]∃:,%,()∃%2008723[29][23],:−∀52∀20085SOUTHEASTASIANSTUDIES