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,(,210098):,,10,,():;;;;;;:P338;G353111:A:100126791(2004)0220255206:2002212225;:2003204210:(2001);(2002409743):(1969-),,,E2mail:huangguoru@1631net,:,,,,,,,,1,,,,Takens[1],,,,,,m,,,,,,Packard[2],Takens[1],,,,m,111PackardTankens[1,2],,,,xixi+,;,,,xixi+,,xixi+,15220043ADVANCESINWATERSCIENCEVol115,No12Mar.,2004,,,,,,011015[3],,Frazer[4],,,,,Liebert[5],,,,,,Rodriguez2Iturbe[6],,Sivakumar[7]112md,Takens[1],m2d,,mm,,,;,,,,,;,,,,[813],m:C1Jacobi[14,15],m,,,,,2211,?,?LyapunovKolmogorovGrassberger2Proccica[16],,,,Lyapunov,,Lyapunov,Lyapunov1,10,Lyapunov,Wolf1985[17],,Kolmogorovk,,0k,k,Grassberger2Proccica[18]Kolmogorov,65215,mm3,,mm3,;,[19],,,,[20]212,,,Hense[21]1987,Nauru1008,215415,,,Rodriguez2Iturbe[6]1989Lyapunov,Genoa148,BostonSharifi[8]1990,Jayawardena[3]1994LyapunovKolmogorov32,Puente[22]1996KolmogorovLyapunovBoston,Porporato[23]1997PoDoraBaltea,14246,Sivakumar[7,9]199819996,,,[10]2090,[11],LyapunovKolmogorov,[12]Lyapunov,YinkangZhou[13],500,10,,,,,,,[3,7,9,22,32]3,,,,,,,Lypunov[14,15]m,m,ty(t)t+Tyt+T,m,yt+T=fTyt+(t)(1)7522:T;fT;(t)fT,fT,fTfT,yt+T=fTyt+(t),t+Txt+T=hT(yt+T)(2)hT,fTfTytmfT,,,tx(t),,[10],,,[24],,[25,26],,,[27],AP(P),,Jayawardena[3],,4,,,,,,,,,411,,,,,,,,,,[2830]Smith[28]1988,Nmin42m,mNerenberg[30]1990Smith[28],,,102+014m,,,,[6,31,33]Sivakumar[7,9]1500,304,(),,,,[32]85215412,,,,,,,,[22,32],,,1999,Sivakumar[33],,,,,,,:,,[32,33]5,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:[1]TakensF1Detectingstrangeattractorsinturbulence[A].In:DARand,LSYong.Dynamicalsystemsandturbulence[M]1Warwick,LectureNotesinMathematics,898[C].Berlin:Springer2Verlag,1981.366-381.[2]PackardNH,CrutchfieldJ,FarmerJ1Geometryfromatimeseries[J]1PhysicsReviewLetters,1980,45(9):712-7151[3]JayawardenaAW,LaiF1Analysisandpredictionofchaosinrainfallandstreamflowtimeseries[J]1JournalofHydrology,1994,153:23-521[4]FrazerAM,SwinneyHL1Independentcoordinatesforstrangeattractorsfrommutualinformation[J]1PhysRevA,1986,33(2):1134-11401[5]LiebertW,SchusterHG1Properchoiceofthetimedelayfortheanalysisofchaotictimeseries[J]1PhysLettA,1989,141:386-3901[6]Rodriguez2IturbeI,DePFB,SharifiMB1Chaosinrainfall[J]1WaterResourcesResearch,1989,25(7):1667-16751[7]SivakumarB,LiongSY,LiawCY1Singaporerainfallbehavior:chaotic?[J]1JournalofHydroEng,ASCE,1999,4(1):38-481[8]SharifiMB,GeorgakakosKP,Rodriguez2IturbeI1Evidenceofdeterministicchaosinthepulseofstormrainfall[J]1JournalofAtmosSci,1990,47(7):888-8931[9]SivakumarB,LiongSY,LiawCY1EvidenceofchaoticbehaviorinSingaporerainfall[J]1JAmWaterResourAssoc,1998,34(2):301-3101[10],,1[J]1,1995,85:7-111[11],,1[J]1,1996,7(3):226-23019522:[12],,1[J]1,1999,17(1):21-231[13]YingkangZhou,ZhiyuanMa,LachunWang1ChaoticdynamicsofthefloodseriesintheHuaiheRiverBasinforthelast500years[J]1JournalofHydrology,2002,258(1):100-1101[14]1[J]1,1999,14(6):559-5641[15],,1[J]1,1998,9(2):181-1861[16]GrassbergerP,ProciacciaI1EstimationoftheKolomogoroventropyfromachaoticsignal[J]1PhysRevA,1983,28:2591-25931[17]WolfA,SwiftJB,SwinneyJB1DeterminingLypunovexponentsfromatimeseries[J]1PhysicsD,1985,16:282-3171[18]GrassbergerP,ProcacciaI1Measuringthestrangenessofstrangeattractors[J]1PhysicaD,1983,9:189-2081[19]CasdagliM1Nonlinearpredicationofchaotictimeseries[J]1PhysicaD,1989,35:335-3561[20]SugiharaG,MayRM1Nonlinearforecastingasawayofdistinguishingchaosfrommeasurementerrorintimeseries[J]1Nature,1990,344:734-7411[21]HenseA1Onthepossibleexistenceofastrangeattractorforthesouthernoscillation[J]1BeitrPhysAtmos,1987,60(1):34-471[22]PuenteCE,ObregonN1Adeterministicgeometricrepresentationoftemporalrainfall:resultsforastorminBoston[J]1WaterResourRes,1996,32(9):2825-28391[23]PorporatoA,RidolfiL1Nonlinearanalysisofriverflowtimesequences[J]1WaterResourRes,1997,33(6):1353-13671[24],,1[J]1,1998,26(12):62-641[25],,1[J]1,1999,16(3):33-361[26],,,1[J]1,1999,17(2):39-411[27],,1[J]1,1999,27(12):41-431[28]SmithLA1Intrinsiclimitsondimensioncalculations[J]1PhysLettA,1988,133(6):283-2881[29]HavstadJW,EhlersCL1Attractordimensionofnonstationarydynamicalsystemsfromsmalldatasets[J]1PhysRevA,1989,39(2):845-8531[30]NerenbergMAH,EssexC1Correlationdimensionandsystematicgeometriceffects[J]1PhysRevA,1990,42(12):7065-70741[31]TsonisAA,ElsnerJB,GeorgakakosKP1Estimatingthedimensionofweatherandclimateattractors:importantissuesabouttheprocedureandinterpretation[J]1JAtmosSci,1993,50:2549-25551[32]SivakumarB1Chaostheoryinhydrology:importantissuesandinterpretations[J]1Journalofhydrology,2000,227:1-201[33]SivakumarB,PhoonKK,LiongSY1Asystematicapproachtonoisereductioninobservedchaotictimeseries[J]1Journalofhydrology,1999,219:103-1351StudyadvancesindiagnosisofchaoticbehaviouranditspredictionforrainfallandstreamflowtimeseriesinwatershedHUANGGuo2ru,RUIXiao2fang(CollegeofWaterResourcesandEnvironment,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098,China)Abstract:Chaoticandstochasticbehaviorhavedifferentcharacterinessentiality,thedescribingmethodsforthetwocharactersarenotsameeachother,andidentificationofchaoticandstochasticbehaviorofrainfallandstreamflowtimeseriesinthewatershedisthemostimportantbasementformodelingandforecastingit1Inthelastdecade,