滑坡时间预测预报研究进展

19320046ADVANCEINEARTHSCIENCESVol.19No.3Jun.,2004:100128166(2004)0320478206X,,(,610059):,,,(GMD),:;;;;GIS;:P642122:A0,,200(),,,,,(M.Satio)2060,,,,,,,,();,,,,,,GIS,,[15],,,,,1,,X:2004204209;:200420422913:(:40172096);(:2002cccd1500)1:(19682),,,,1E2mail:[e-mail],,,,,GMD1.1,3,,,,,,,,,11[6]Table1PredictivemodelsandmethodsoflandslidesHOCKK3KAWAWURA,,GM(1,1)(GM(1,1)GM(1,1)GM(1,1)GM(1,1)GM(1,1)),GM(1,1),GM(1,1)(PearlVerhulstVerhulst)(GMDH),,BPBPGA()9743:1.2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,22Table2ThemacroscopicdeformationevidencesofXinTanlandslideincourseofevolutionI:(19798):(1979819827):(1982719855):(19855611)1.,,,,,2.,,,3.,160m3,,,,4.,10mm,,1050mm,,50100mm,;,,100mm,,,905.200mm,,200mm,,6.,,,,,,,70m37.,198235,3m3,,08419,(,,)(,,)(,,)()()1.3GMD,,,,[1](),(),,,(geology)(mechanism),,(deformation),,(G)(M)(D),GMD,GMD,,GMD,,2,,,10,33,,,,,,3[6]Table3Allkindspredictioncriterionsoflandslides(K)K1(Ps)Ps95%K=A0/A1A0;Apipidpi/dtdpi/dtVfVfVCr,VCr0.1mm/d1000mm/d,0()0898915(D)1D1(D)0D07074,,5,1843:,;,,GIS;,,(),(),,[7,8],11,1Fig.1Diagramoftotalinformationprediction,,,,,,;,(),,;,GMD,28419,,,1,GIS,4,,,,GMD,,,GMD,(G)(M)(D)GMD10,(References):[1]XuQiang(),HuangRunqiu(),LiXiuzhen(),etal.Summaryonpredictionmodelsandcriterionsoflandslidesandde2velopmentonlandslidepredictionandevaluationsystem[R].Thesci2enceandtechnologyspecialplanofthenationalterritoryresourcesde2partmentin2000:theresearchreportaboutthreeGorgesoftheYangtzeRivergeologydisastermonitorandforecast.Chengdu:ChengduUni2versityofTechnology(),2001(inChinese).[2]WangShangqing(),etal.LandslideMonitorandForecastofThreeGorgesoftheYangtzeRiver[M].Beijing:GeologicalPublishingHouse,1998(inChinese).[3]LiTianbin(),ChenMingdong(),Wanglansheng(),etal.LandslideReal2timeTrackingPrediction[M].Cheng2du:ChengduScientificandTechnicalUniversityPublishingHouse,1999(inChinese).[4]QingSiqing(),ZhangZhuoyuan(),WangShitian(),etal.Non2linearScienceGuiding[M].Chengdou:SouthwestJiaotongUniversityPublishingHouse,1993(inChinese).[5]HuangRunqiu(),XuQiang().AnalysisPrincipleandApplicationofEngineeringGeologyGeneralizedSystemsScience[M].Beijing:GeologicalPublishingHouse,1997(inChinese).[6]LiXiuzhen(),XuQiang().Landslidepredictionmodelsandpredictioncriterions[J].JournalofCatastrophology(),2003,18(4):71278(inChinese).[7]LiYanrong().Landslidepredictionandevaluationsystemde2velopmentandapplicationresearchBasedonGIS[MasterpaperD].Chengdu:ChengduUniversityofTechnology,2002(inChinese).[8]LiDongshan().Developmentandapplicationresearchofland2slidesynthesispredictionexpertsystem[MasterpaperD].Chengdu:ChengduUniversityofTechnology,2002(inChinese).RESEARCHPROGRESSINTIMEFORECASTANDPREDICTIONOFLANDSLIDESXUQiang,HUANGRun2qiu,LIXiu2zhen(NationalLaboratoryofGeohazardPreventionandGeoenvironmentProtection,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,Chengdu610059,China)Abstract:Chinaisoneofnationsdeeplypuzzledbylandslidedisaster,theeconomiclosscausedbylandslidesev2eryyearisveryserious.Therefore,thelandslideforcastandpredictionhasbecomeahottopicstudiedbypeople.Inthispaper,theresearchpresentsituationandprogressonthelandslidetimepredictionaresystematicallysummarized,espe2cially,theprogressisemphaticallydiscussedaboutthelandslideforecastmodels(includingquantitativeforecastmodelsqualitativeforecastmodelaswellasGMDforecastmodelandsoon)andtheforecastcriterions,andthecomprehensiveinformationpredictionanditsspecifictechnologyrouteareproposed.Keywords:Landslideprediction;Predictionmodel;Predictioncriterion;Comprehensiveprediction;GIS;Expertsystem13843: