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,(,618000):(ANN),,ANN,,ANN;,ANN:;;Abstract:Shorttermloadforecasting(STLF)withleadtimefromafewminutestoseverdays,PlayakeyrolefortheeconomicandsecureoperationofPowersystems.VariousmodelsforSTLFhavebeenProposedinthelastfewdecades.Withthedevel2opmentofANN,anewmethodoftheSTLFhasbeenproposed.TheforecastmodelofANNhasbeensuccessfullyappliedtoSTLFANNdoesnotrelyonhumanexperiencebutattempttolearnbyitselfthefunctionalrelationshipbetweensysteminputsandoutputsthroughatrainingProcess.InitiallytheANNistrainedbyhistorydata.Aftertraining,theANNcanbeusedtoforecasttheloadofPowersystemonlyWithinputs.Keyword:ANN;ShortTermLoadForecasting(STLF);PatternRecognization:TM714:A:1003-6954(2008)06-0068-0511.1,,,,1.2,,1.3:L(t)=B(t)+W(t)+S(t)+V(t)(1),L(t)t;B(t)t;W(t)t;S();V()1.3.1,B(t),B(t),B(t),B(t)1.3.2,,,1.3.3,,,,1.3.4,,,Bx6316200812SichuanElectricPowerTechnologyVol.31,No.6Dec.,2008tttto-Jenkins81.4,ARMA,,ArtificialNeuralNet2works(ANN)ANN,,,ANN,,,,ANN,ANN2BP(Back-PropagtionNet2works),11BP2.1BP/,,,,,,,,,,(;),BS(singmoid)f(x)=11+ex,(wij,Tli),,xj,yj,Ol,tl,E,BPyi=f(jwijxj-i)f(neti)(2)Ql=f(iTliyi-l)=f(netl)(3)E=12l(tl-Ol)2=12i(tl-O1)2=12i(ti-f)(iTlif(jwijxj-i)-l))2(4)E,E5E5Tli=nk=15E5Ol5Ok5Tli=5E5Ol5Ol5Tli(5)5E5Ol=-(tl-Ol),5El5Tli=f(netl)yi(6)Sf=f(1-f),l=(tl-Ol)Ol(1-Ol)(7)5E5Tli=-lyi(8),Tli=-5E5Tli=lyi(9)5E5wli=li5E5Ol5Ol5yi5yi5wij(10)i=yi(1-yi)llTlj=jxj(11)5E5l=nk=15E5Ok5Ok5l=5E5Ol5Ol5l(12)5E5l=5E5nett5netl5l=f(netl)(13)5E5l=-l,l=l(14)l=i(15)::(1)l=(tl-Ol)Ol(1-Ol);()T(+)=T()+y(K);6316200812SichuanElectricPowerTechnologyVol.31,No.6Dec.,2008P2lik1likli9(3)l(k+1)=l(k)+l:(1)i=yi(1-yi)llTli;(2)Tli(k+1)=Tij(k)+iyi(K);(3)i(k+1)=i(k)+i2.2BP(1):/,BP,nm(2):,,,,(3):,,,2.3,::,,,,,,,;,,,,,,33.1,,,199619971998,()3.2ANN,,:BP;BP:;BFGS,3.3ANN,:/3.3.1//BP,,,/3.3.2BP,:BP,,BPnm:s,[511],B,B316200812SichuanElectricPowerTechnologyVol.31,No.6Dec.,2008PP07,,BP,,,,,,BP3.3.3BPS,S,S[-1,+1],S,,(0,1)(-1,1)3.3.4S1,,[34],m=n+l+;m=logn2;m=nl,m,n,l,110,,,10000,()0.013.3.5B.Widrow,:rS1,S1[5]0,,(,+),(,+1)3.3.6,,,,,,,,,6-S1-2:S,,S1MATLABRands(-1,1),S1=1144.12,1998320242,6%,,,,,,,,316200812SichuanElectricPowerTechnologyVol.31,No.6Dec.,2008-11-1173()4.2ANN,,:(1);(2);(3),,,;(4)ANN,,,,3199845,,,,,,(),,,,,[1],.MATLAB6.X()[M].,2002.[2].MATLAB7[M].,2005.[3].MATLAB6.5[M].,2003.[4]SimmonHaykin.[M].,2004.[5]SergiosTheodorids.().[M].2004.[6].[M].,2000.[7].[M].,1993.[8],.[M].,1992.[9],,.BP[J].,2001,(5):12-16.[10],.[J].,2001,(4):36-40.[11],.BP[J].(),2000,(2):21-25.[12],.[C].,1990:6065.[13],.BP[J].,2001,10:13-15.[14],,..[J].,2000,()(6)316200812SichuanElectricPowerTechnologyVol.31,No.6Dec.,20081:10-14.2008-08-027