【精品文档】摩根斯坦利中国物流市场研究（英）

In-DepthPleaseseetheimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport.Page1IndustryEquityResearchAsia/PacificIndustryOverviewOctober5,2001HenryHo,[e-mail],TeamLeader,[e-mail]NIESFEATUREDSembcorpLogistics(SWMS.SI,S$1.66)OutperformChinaEasternAir(0670.HK,HK$0.79)NeutralCNAC(1110.HK,HK$0.92)OutperformChinaSouthernAir(1055.HK,HK$1.60)Outperform-VRECENTREPORTSSembcorpLogistics:DefensiveQualitiesCommandValuationPremiumJ.Kuek/C.LimSeptember26,2001SembcorpLogistics:RegionalFocus,GlobalReachC.Lim/J.KuekAugust16,2001•LogisticsisanoldbutkeyprocessinallbusinessesWeestimateChina’sannuallogisticsbilltobemorethanUS$200billionandthatthird-partylogistics(3PL)providersaccountforabout2%ofthelogisticsmarket.•OutsourcingoflogisticsisagrowingtrendinChinaMostlogisticsservicesinChinaarehandledin-house.WithWTOentryandSOEprivatization,efficiencyandcostcontrolwilldriveoutsourcingofthelogisticsfunctionto3PLserviceproviders.•LogisticssuppliersrangefromsinglefunctiontointegratedservicesThelogisticsindustryinChinarangesfromservicingofasinglesegmentofthetotalprocess(suchaswarehousingandpoint-to-pointtransportation)tointegratedserviceproviders.•Integratedlogisticsisayoungandfast-growingindustryinChinaTheessenceoflogisticsmanagementistouseasystematicapproachtolowertotallogisticscostsandfillcustomerneeds.Theone-stopserviceprovidershavehighROEandweexpectthissegmenttoexperiencerevenuegrowthof20%forthenext10years.•Thefirst-moveradvantageWebelievethereisaclearadvantagetopositioningearlytosecurecustomersandscale.OneofthekeyingredientsinbuildingacompetitivenationwidelogisticsoperationinChinaistime.Investorsshouldbereadytospottheearlybird.•ServiceprovidersarestrivingtobecomemoreintegratedMostofthelistedtransportandlogisticscompaniesareintheearlystagesofevolvingtohigherROE3PLbusinesses.SembcorpLogisticsisourkeyrecommendationforits3PLsubsidiaryinChina.ChinaLogistics–October5,2001Pleaseseetheimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport.Page2ContentsExecutiveSummary:SpottheEarlyBird....................................................................................................................................3WhyLookatLogistics?...............................................................................................................................................................4TheLogisticsPlayers–From1PLto5PL...................................................................................................................................8TheDevelopmentofLogisticsinChina....................................................................................................................................10GoodsInMotionandAtRest,andInformationFlow...............................................................................................................12TheEvolving3PLMarketinChina...........................................................................................................................................16HowBigIstheMarket?.............................................................................................................................................................18BeyondTheYellowBrickRoad–WheretheFutureLies........................................................................................................24TheExistingPlayers..................................................................................................................................................................26ListedCompaniesandM&APotential......................................................................................................................................27CompanyProfiles..........................................................................................................................................................................33ChinaEasternAirlines...............................................................................................................................................................34ChinaNationalAviationCompany............................................................................................................................................37ChinaPost..................................................................................................................................................................................40ChinaSouthernAirlines.............................................................................................................................................................42EASInternationalTransportationLtd.(EAS)...........................................................................................................................45HutchisonPortHoldings............................................................................................................................................................47SembCo