指数平滑预测法中平滑系数的确定

:1000-1670(2004)01-0079-021,2(1.,116028;2.,116000)X:...:;;;:F224.01:A,.,,..1,,.:,,,;,,t$n.,,.,,..:s(1)t=xt+(1-)s(1)t-1(t=1,2,n),...:s(2)t=s(1)t+(1-)s(2)t-1(t=1,2,n),:s(3)t=s(2)t+(1-)s(3)t-1(t=1,2,n)2,,.xt+1=s(1)t;xt+i=at+bti,(i=1,2,n);xt+i=at+bti+cti2(i=1,2,n).at,bt,,.3X:2003-03-06:(1970-),,,.25120043JOURNALOFDALIANRAILWAYINSTITUTEVol.25No.1Mar.2004,.,,.,.,,,;,,.,.,,,..=0.9,.,,,,.=0.1,,.,,.,,.,01,.(1).(1),.,n,1/n,,0,:€y=(n-1)/2.,n,,:p=(1-)/.,,,:(1-)/=(n-1)/2,:=2/(n+1)(2),.0.050.20,st,;,,,0.10.4;,,,,0.60.8,,;(),,0.61.(3),,,,,.,,.,,.:[1],.[M].:,1996.[2].[M].:,1999.AscertainmentofIndexIevelandCoefficientSmoothZHANGDe2nan,ZHANGXin2yan(Dept.ofManagement,DalianRailwayInstitute,Dalian116028,China)Abstract:Thispaperproposesthreemethodsofindexlevelandsmoothcoefficientdeterruinationwhichisimportantfortheforecastaccuracy,andcansolvetheproblemoftheapplicationlimitationofindexlevelandcoefficientsmooth.Keyword:Indexlevelandsmoothmethod;theoreticalcalculationmethod;experiencemethod;testcalculationmethod8025