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:2008206211:(70702033,70572097)BOT,,,(,116024):BOT,BOT,NPV,LPVRLPVNR,,BOT:BOT;;;:C934:A:100325192(2009)0320001208ReviewonDecisionMethodofConcessionPeriodforBuild2Operate2TransferProjectsWANGDong2bo,SONGJin2bo,DAIDa2shuang,HANShou2dong(SchoolofManagement,DalianUniversityofTechnology,Dalian116024,China)Abstract:SincethetypeofBOTwaswidelyappliedtotheconstructionofinfrastructuralandpublicprojects,thedeci2sionproblemofconcessionperiodhasbeenthefocusinfieldsofbothacademyandpractice.ThroughsystematicalreviewandanalysisofrelevantliteraturesandcasesontheinfluencingfactorsanddecisionmethodsforconcessionperiodofBOTprojects,thispaperfocusesonthereviewoffixedmethodsincludingNPV,GameTheoryandMonteCarloSimula2tion,andtheoppositeflexiblemethodsincludingLPVR(leastpresentvalueofrevenue)andLPVNR(leastpresentval2ueofnetrevenue),andfurthersummarizestheircharacteristicsandflawsrespectively.Finally,thispaperpresentsthedirectionsandsuggestionsforfuturestudyonthedecisionofconcessionperiodinordertoprovideguidesfortheoreticalandpoliticalstudyandpracticaloperationofBOTprojectsinChina.Keywords:BOT(build2operate2transfer);concessionperiod;flexibleconcessionperiod;decisionmethod1,BOT(build2operate2transfer)[1,2],BOT,BOT[3,4],,BOTBOT,,,BOT,:(1),,BOT(1),,BOT,,(2)1Vol.28,No.3FORECASTING20093BOT,[57],,,,,,1BOTBOT()()1860104263201950020170002029000201500206700203200201030020670020140020()8500243500251100025570025325025400251649530:,,,BOT2BOT,:,1,Ot1,t1t3,t3,t4(,t4t4);,,1Ot3,,1,BOTt2t4,NPV01BOTShawKennethThompson,BOTBOTBOT[8](2),[9,10],,,[11],[12,13]YeRobert,BOT,[14,15]2Vol.28,No.3200932BOT345563523162530a353035b3020307551010c1020Pyrmont25d25BTS30e30f50993015201015g2030h10i1551520205030a17.5b10c10d25e10f10g20,h5i5:ShawKennethThompson(1996)BrickleyMisraVan,,[16],BOT,,[17]3,(NPV)3.1(NPV)(NPV)BOT[14]NPV=Ti=1CIi-COi(1+r)ii=1,2,,T(1),T,NPVNPV,;NPV,;NPV,TNPV,,[11]:Tci=T0CIi-COi(1+r)i=ERE:Ti=TcCIi-COi(1+r)i0(2)(3)T0,Tc,T,E,RE,r(r=1+i1+I-1),i,I,(2)(Tc);(3)Tc,,,(2)Tc(3),,NPVShenLiWu,(2),(4)(3)(4),[18]Tci=T0CIi-COi(1+r)iERE(4),,,3,:BOT,(),,[19],MM(CAPM),()(e),(e),CAPM(WACC),(k),k(4),(Tc)(),Tc=Tc3.2,BOTBOT,:(1),;(2);(3),,,,,,,,,,;,,[12,13],,BOT[20],,BOT[21]BOTSchmidtSchmitz,BOT[2224]XingWuBOT,,Stackelberg,BOT[25]Shen,,NPV,,[26]3.3BOT,,[27,28],,BOT[29,30],,[31],,,NPV,,[32][33]ShenLiWu(3)(4),,NPV(PG),,PG,[18,34]ZhangAbouRizk,,NPV,(CPM)NPV:,CPM,,,NPV,4Vol.28,No.320093(IRRmin)(IRRmax),,,,,,[15,35],Thomas,,,NPV0(IRRmin)(IRRexpected)(IRRmax),,IRRminIRRexpectedIRRmax;,;,[36],,,(;)(non2inferior),Thomas,,[33],LohRobertJahidulIRR,,[37]44.1[38,39],,[4042],BOT,,,,,BOT,[43,44],:(1),;(2),,,;(3),,,[45],4.2,BOT,[46],EngelFisherGaletovicLPVR(leastpresentvalueofreve2nue)[4143],,,maxni=1i[Ti0CSi(PFi)e-rtdt+TiCSi(PAi)e-rtdt]+TiPAiQi(PAi)e-rtdt(5)s.t.ni=1iu(PVRi-I)=u(0)(6)PVRi=Ti0PFiQi(PFi)e-rtdt(7)CSi(P)=Qi(P)0Bi(q)dq-Qi(P)[P+c(Qi(P))](8)ii(1in),ii;Tii;P,PFiPAi;Q;CS(P)P,CS(PFi)CS(PAi);r;PVRii;5,:BOTu(PVRi-I)BOT,u(0)LPVR,[47,48],,(1),(7),,,(2),(pricestickiness),,,(3),(1),,,;,,,,,LPVR,,NombelaLPVR,,LPVNR(leastpresentvalueofnetrevenue)[44]LPVR,,:min(Bi+1(Tm+1-T0)Tmt=T0tEi)(9):(Q,Bi,Ei)=(Bi-Ii)+(Ei-Mi)BiPQ-Ei(10)Bii();T0Tm;Eii,Mii;Iii;P;Q,LPVNR,,,(10),BiEi,;,(9),,BiEi,B3i=IiE3i=Mi,5,BOT,:(1),BOT,NPV,,,,NPV,(2),,,[33],,(3)BOT,[22,23],,,,,:(1),,,,,(2),,,6Vol.28,No.320093[45,49],,,,,(3),,,,,,[44],,,,(4),,,[7,50],BOT,,,6,,BOT,,(1)[1113],[14,15],[32,51],,(2)BOT,,,[52],,(3)BOT,BOT[40,41],,,,,,,,BOT,,,,:[1]PietroforteR,MillerJB.ProcurementmethodsforUSinfra2structure:historicalperspectivesandrecenttrends[J].BuildingResearchandInformation,2002,30(6):4252434.[2]MenchhoffG,ZegrasC.Experiencesandissuesinurbantransportinfrastructureconcessions[R].TheWorldBankGroup,TWU238,1999.1249.[3]Abdul2AzizAR.UnravelingofBOTscheme:MalaysiasIn2dahwaterkonsortium[J].JournalofConstructionEngineer2ingandManagement,2001,127(6):4572460.[4]ConfoyB,LovePED,WoodBM.etal..Build2own2oper2ate:theprocurementofcorrectionalservices[A].InOgun2lanaS,ed.ProfitablePartneringinConstructionProcure2ment[C].E&F.N.Spon,London,1999.4612474.[5],,.[J].,2006,26(10):1542157.[6],,.BOT[J].(),2006,26(6):14218.[7]AnthonyC,KittiS.Analysisofregulationandpolicyofpri2vatetollroadsinabuild2operate2transferschemeunderde2manduncertainty[J].TransportationResearchPartA,2007,41(6):5372558.[8]ShawLN,KennethGM,ThompsonLS.Concessionsintransport[R].TheWorldBankGroup,TWU227,1996.12127.[9].BOT[J].,2000,68:71297.[10],,.BOT()[J].,2001,253:43251.[11],.BOT[J].,2000,14(1):43246.[12],,.BOT[J].,2003,17(3):93295.[13],,.BOT[J].,2003,11(4):30233.[14]YeSD,RobertLKT.NPV2at2riskmethodininfra2structureprojectinvestmentevaluation[J].JournalofConstructionEngineeringandManagement,2000,1267,:BOT(3):2272233.[15]YeSD,RobertLKT.TheeffectofconcessionperioddesignoncompletionriskmanagementofBOTprojects[J].ConstructionManagementandEconomics,2003,21(5):4712482.[16]BrickleyJA,MisraS,VanHornRL.Contractdura2tion:evidencefromfranchisecontracts[J].JournalofLawandEconomics,2006,49(1):1732196.[17].[J].,2006,(11):52256.[18]ShenLN,LiH.Alternativeconcessionmodelforbuildoperatetransferco