搜索
46420104SCIENTIASILVAESINICAEVol.46No.4Apr.2010CDM100083CDM、、CDM-AR。CDMS718.554A1001－7488201004－0031－062008－01－212010－02－05。“”70640005“”“”。SourcesofUncertaintyanditsEstimatingApproachforEstimatingGreenhouseGasEmissionbySourcesandRemovalsbySinksfromAfforestationandReforestationunderCDMWuShuhongSongWeimingCollegeofNatureConservationBeijingForestryUniversityBeijing100083AbstractIssueswithregardtotheuncertaintyinestimatingthenetanthropogenicgreenhousegasremovalsbysinkarediscussedthroughanalyzingtheprocessthatthesourcesofuncertaintygenerateinestimatingthenetanthropogenicgreenhousegasremovalsbysinkandtheuncertaintyofthesources.Theapproachesandproposesforquantifyingtheuncertaintyofsourcesandtheuncertaintyinestimatingthenetanthropogenicgreenhousegasremovalsbysinkareputforwardinthispaper.Weintendtoprovidehelpforinvestorsindecidingprioreffortstoimprovetheaccuracyofapproachinfutureandinchoosingpropermethodologies.KeywordscleandevelopmentmechanismCDMafforestationandreforestationthenetanthropogenicgreenhousegasremovalsbysinksuncertainty。、、CO2、CO2《》3.3I1990、UNFCCC1997。《》UnitedNationframeworkconventiononclimatechangeUNFCCC19/CP.9、afforestationandreforestationprojectunderthecleandevelopmentmechanismCDM-ARG.20bG.26cnetanthropogenicgreenhousegasremovalsbysinks、、、UNFCCC2003。CDM-AR。UNFCCC17/CP.7CDMintergovermentalpanel46onclimatechangeIPCCCDMUNFCCC2001IPCC《IPCC》HFCs、PFCs、SF6、、4IPCC2000、。CDM-ARCDM-AR。CDM-AR。11.1。19/CP.9CDM-ARactualnetgreenhousegasremovalsbysinksCDM、CO2baselinenetgreenhousegasremovalsbysinksleakageCDMUNFCCC2003。。、、。、、、IPCC。。CDM-AR12、。1.2CDM-AR、、。1.2.1UNFCCC19/CP.9G.19CDM-ARCDM-ARUNFCCC2003。。IPCC《、》、、IPCC2003。1.2.2CDM-AR5234CDM。CDM-AR。。1。。。0。、。。、、。。。。。。。。。。。。。2、。。。P=0.5P01。3。、。1.2.3CDM-AR、、、、。CDM-ARIPCC、CDM-AR。N2OIPCC1.25%IPCCN2O0.1%～10%95%1.25%1.5～50.25%～6%IPCC2000。1.2.4CDM-AR、、。。、3346、。IPCC5%8%IPCC2000。22.1CDM-AR、、。CDM-ARIPCC《2000》12。1A。Utotal=U21+U22+…U2槡n1UtotalUi。2BIPCC2000Utotal=U1·x()12+U2·x()22+…Un·x()2槡2x1+x2+…xn2UtotalUixi。2.21、、、。B。95%、、A。UAB=U2AB-tree+U2槡AB-shrub3UBB=U2BB-tree+U2槡BB-shrub。4UAB-tree=UV·xV2+UD·xD2+UBEF·xBEF2+UCF-tree·xCF-tree槡2xV+xD+xBEF+xCF-tree。5UAB-tree=UAB-tree-B·xAB-tree-B2+UCF-tree·xCF-tree槡2xAB-tree-B+xCF-tree6UBB-tree=UAB-tree·xAB-tree2+UR-tree·x()R-tree槡2xAB-tree+xR-tree7UAB-shrub=UAB-shrub-B·xAB-shrub-B2+UCF-shrub·xCF-shrub槡2xAB-shrub-B+xCF-shrub8434CDMUBB-shrub=UAB-shrub·xAB-shrub2+UR-shrub·x()R-shrub槡2xAB-shrub+xR-tree9Usoil=USOCC·xSOCC2+UBD·xBD2+UF·x()F2+Ul·xl槡xSOCC+xBD+xF+xl10UDW=UDW-B·xDW-B2+UCF-tree·xCF-tree槡2xDW-B+xCF-tree11Ul=Ul-B·xl-B2+UCF-l·xCF-l槡2xl-B+xCF-l12UAB-treeUBB-treeUVUDUBEFUCF-treeUAB-tree-BUR-treeUAB-shrubUBB-shrubUAB-shrub-BUCF-shrubUR-shrubUsoilUSOCCUBDUF1－/100UDWUDW-BUlUl-BUCF-lxVm3xDg·cm－3xBEFxAB-tree-BtC·hm－2xCF-treetC·t－1dmxR-treexAB-shrub-BtC·hm－2xCF-shrubtC·t－1dmxR-shrubxSOCCtC·hm－2xBDg·cm－3xF1－/100xDW-BtC·hm－2xl-BtC·hm－2xCF-ltC·t－1dm。2A。13。Ui=U2ABi+U2BBi+U2soili+U2DWi+U2l槡iUC-stock=A·∑iU2槡i。13UiAhm2UC-stock。3AUGHG-E=U2FuelBurn+U2biomasslost+U2Non-CO2BiomassBurn+U2direct-Nfertiizer+U2direct-N槡fixing14UGHG-ECDM-ARGHGUFuelBurnGHGUbiomasslostUNon-CO2BiomassBurnCO2Udirect-NfertizerNO2Udirect-Nfixing5346NO2。、、、N2OB。CDM-ARCDM-AR。4CDM-AR①、、②③④。①③22IPCC《2000》IPCC2000CDM-AR。AULK=U2LKVehicle+U2LK槡Livestock15ULKVehicleULKLivestockULK。5AUAR-total=U2C-stock+U2GHG-E+U2槡LK16UAR-totalCDM-ARUC-stockUGHG-ECDM-ARGHGULK。3CDM-ARCDMexecutiveboardEBcertifiedemissionreductionCERsEBCDM-AR。。IPCC.2000.IPCCgoodguidelinesfornationgreenhousegasinventoriesworkbook.JapanIGES3.IPCC.2003.Goodpracticeguidanceforlanduseland-usechangeandforestrytask1.JapanIGES73－75.UNFCCC.1997.KyotoProtocoltotheUnitedNationsframeworkconventiononclimatechange1998－03－06.http//unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php.UNFCCC.2001.Decision17/CP.7Modalitiesandproceduresforacleandevelopmentmechanism2002－01－21.http//unfccc.Int/resource/docs/cop7/13a02.pdf.UNFCCC.2003.Decision19/CP.9ModalitiesandproceduresforafforestationandreforestationprojectactivitiesunderthecleandevelopmentmechanisminthefirstcommitmentperiodoftheKyotoProtocol2004－03－03.http//unfccc.Int/resource/docs/cop9/06a02.pdf.63