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,,,116023:,,Vensim,,,,,,,:;;;:F820.4:A:1672-0334(2005)01-0062-06DemandAnalysisandSimulationModelofElectronicCashHUANGXiao2yan,HUXiang2pei,XIONGFangSchoolofManagement,DalianUniversityofTechnology,Dalian116023,ChinaAbstract:Thedynamicanduncertainproblemofe2cashdemandisanalyzedqualitativelybyconsideringinfluencingfactorsandsystemcomplexity.Further,SystemDynamicsmodelisbuiltandsimulatedbyVensimsoftwaresoastoresearchthecorrelationamongthevariablesandthedynamicprincipleofdemandchangesquantitatively.Theresultsindicatethate2cashdemandismainlydecidedbythecostadvantageandtheexten2sionoftransactionscopes.Moreover,e2cashdemandiscloselyrelatedtoincome,diffusionrateandcirculationrate,etc.Itisshownthatthee2cashdemandisincreased,buttheincreaseratechangesgraduallyfromhightolowandeventuallytendstoremainstable.Keywords:Electroniccash;Demand;Simulation;Model:2004-10-13:(70031020):(1971-),,,,:1,,,1983D.Chaum,()[1,2],,,:[35];[5];[6];[79];[1012]18120052MANAGEMENTSCIENCESINCHINAVol.18No.1February,2005,,KeynesBaumol-TobinFriedmanRomer[13,14],,,,,[15],,,,,,Vensim,,,2,,2.1,,,(,),,,,,;,,;,,,;,,;,,,,,2.2,,,()(),,1,,,,,Vensim33.11Table1TheComplexityCharacteristicsofE2cashDemandSystem;,,;,,361:,(1),,(2),(3)(4),,3.2,,,,2,,,3.33.33.3.1,,,,,12,1,,,,,23.3.2(1)LTptc=INTEG(RPptc-RTrptc-etc-RTrptc-eec-RHptc,Initial_LTptc)(1)1Figure1TheSystemDynamicsMainModelofE2cashDemand2Figure2TheSystemDynamicsSub2modelofE2cashDemand46200522Table2TheSymbolsandDefinitionsoftheVariablesofE2cashDemandModel123LTptcLTetcLTeec456789101112RPptcRPetcRPeecRHptcRHetcRHeecRTrptc-etcRTrptc-eecRTretc-eec1314151617181920212223242526IIRDpcDecKNDpcKNIecKHptcKHetcKHeecPetc/tcPeec/tcVFecVFpcTFecTFpc27282930313233CPIVELpcVELecFFpcFFecKetcKeec561:LTetc=INTEG(RTrptc-etc+RPetc-RHetc-RTretc-eec,Initial_LTetc)(2)LTeec=INTEG(RTrptc-eec+RTretc-eec+RPeec-RHeec,Initial_LTeec(3)(2)RPptc=LTptcIIR(4)RPetc=LTetcIIR(5)RPeec=LTeecIIR(6)RHptc=LTptcKHptc(7)RHetc=LTetcKHetc(8)RHeec=LTeecKHeec(9)RTrptc-etc=KetcPetc/tcLTptc(10)RTrptc-eec=KeecPeec/tcLTptc(11)RTretc-eec=KeecPeec/tcLTetc(12)(3)Petc/tc=LTetcLTetc+LTptc+LTeec(13)Peec/tc=LTeecLTetc+LTptc+LTeec(14)KNIec=DecDELAY1I(Dec,1,Initial_Dec)(15)KNDpc=DpcDELAY1I(Dpc,1,Initial_Dpc)(16)Dec=(LTetc+LTeec)CPIVELec(17)Dpc=LTptcCPIVELpc(18)KHptc=Initial_KHptcTFpcDELAY1I(TFpc,1,FFpc+Initial_VFpc)(19)KHeec=Initial_KHeecTFecDELAY1I(TFec,1,FFec+Initial_VFec)(20)KHetc=KHeec(21)VFec=DELAY1I(VFec,1,Initial_VFec)KNIec(22)VFpc=DELAY1I(VFpc,1,Initial_VFpc)KNDpc(23)TFec=FFec+VFec(24)TFpc=FFpc+VFpc(25)4,LTptcLTetcLTeecDec,36345,6620052,,,,,,6,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,,;,,,5(1),,;(2),;(3),,:[1]CommitteeonPaymentandSettlementSystems.Sur2veyofdevelopmentsinelectronicmoneyandinternetandmobilepayments[R].BankforInternationalSettlementsPress,2004.8-10.[2]DavidBoyle.Currencyreformfromaristotletoe2cash[M].London:EarthscanPublicationsLimited,2003.160-170.[3]ConnelFullenkamp,SalehM.Nsouli.Sixpuzzlesinelectronicmoneyandbanking[R].IMFWorkingPaper,2004.8-24.[4]DavidBirch.E2cashissues:electroniccashisnotjustabouttechnology[J].EuropeanBusinessRe2view,1999,(11):211-218.[5]HuangXiaoyan,HuXiangpei.Anissuancemodelofsmart2card2basede2cashinChina[A].Internation2alconferenceonmanagementscience&engineering[C].Harbin,2003.50-54.[6]IsabelleT.D.Szmigin,HumphreyBourne.Elec2troniccash:aqualitativeassessmentofitsadoption[J].InternationalJournalofBankMarketing,1999,(4):192-202.[7],,.[J].(),2004,(8):510-513.[8]Chin2ChenChang,Yen2PongLai.Aflexibledate2at2tachmentschemeone2cash[J].ComputersandSecu2rity,2003,22(2):160-166.[9],,.[J].,2004,(4):484-500.[10],.[J].,2003,(10):53-58.[11].[J].,2002,(5):81-89.[12],.[J].,2001,(4):81-89.[13]BenjaminM.Friedman.Decouplingatthemargin:thethreattomonetarypolicyfromtheelectronicrevo2lutioninbanking[R].NBERWorkingPaperSe2ries,2000.5-10.[14]KeithBain,PeterHowells.Monetaryeconomics:policyanditstheoreticalbasis[M].PalgraveMac2millan,2003.131-205.[15]Ogata,Katsuhiko.Systemdynamics[M].ChinaMachinePress,2004.38-116.761: