【管理类】项目管理（全英文版）(11)

©1996ProjectManagementInstitute,130SouthStateRoad,UpperDarby,PA19082USA111ProjectRiskManagementincludestheprocessesconcernedwithidentifying,ana-lyzing,andrespondingtoprojectrisk.Itincludesmaximizingtheresultsofposi-tiveeventsandminimizingtheconsequencesofadverseevents.Figure11–1pro-videsanoverviewofthefollowingmajorprocesses:11.1RiskIdentification—determiningwhichrisksarelikelytoaffectthepro-jectanddocumentingthecharacteristicsofeach.11.2RiskQuantification—evaluatingrisksandriskinteractionstoassesstherangeofpossibleprojectoutcomes.11.3RiskResponseDevelopment—definingenhancementstepsforopportuni-tiesandresponsestothreats.11.4RiskResponseControl—respondingtochangesinriskoverthecourseoftheproject.Theseprocessesinteractwitheachotherandwiththeprocessesintheotherknowledgeareasaswell.Eachprocessmayinvolveeffortfromoneormoreindi-vidualsorgroupsofindividualsbasedontheneedsoftheproject.Eachprocessgenerallyoccursatleastonceineveryprojectphase.Althoughtheprocessesarepresentedhereasdiscreteelementswithwell-definedinterfaces,inpracticetheymayoverlapandinteractinwaysnotdetailedhere.ProcessinteractionsarediscussedindetailinChapter3.Differentapplicationareasoftenusedifferentnamesfortheprocessesdescribedhere.Forexample:•Riskidentificationandriskquantificationaresometimestreatedasasingleprocess,andthecombinedprocessmaybecalledriskanalysisorriskassessment.•Riskresponsedevelopmentissometimescalledresponseplanningorriskmitigation.•Riskresponsedevelopmentandriskresponsecontrolaresometimestreatedasasingleprocess,andthecombinedprocessmaybecalledriskmanagement.11.1RISKIDENTIFICATIONRiskidentificationconsistsofdeterminingwhichrisksarelikelytoaffectthepro-jectanddocumentingthecharacteristicsofeach.Riskidentificationisnotaone-timeevent;itshouldbeperformedonaregularbasisthroughouttheproject.Riskidentificationshouldaddressbothinternalandexternalrisks.Internalrisksarethingsthattheprojectteamcancontrolorinfluence,suchasstaffassignmentsandcostestimates.Externalrisksarethingsbeyondthecontrolorinfluenceoftheprojectteam,suchasmarketshiftsorgovernmentaction.Strictlyspeaking,riskinvolvesonlythepossibilityofsufferingharmorloss.Intheprojectcontext,however,riskidentificationisalsoconcernedwithopportuni-ties(positiveoutcomes)aswellasthreats(negativeoutcomes).PROJECTRISKMANAGEMENT1111.1RiskIdentification11.2RiskQuantification11.3RiskResponseDevelopment11.4RiskResponseControl112©1996ProjectManagementInstitute,130SouthStateRoad,UpperDarby,PA19082USAFIGURE11–1AGUIDETOTHEPROJECTMANAGEMENTBODYOFKNOWLEDGE11.3RiskResponseDevelopment11.4RiskResponseControl11.1RiskIdentification11.2RiskQuantification.1Inputs.2ToolsandTechniques.3Outputs.1Riskmanagementplan.2Actualriskevents.3Additionalriskidentification.1Workarounds.2Additionalriskresponsedevelopment.1Correctiveaction.2Updatestoriskmanagementplan.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.2.2.1Inputs.2ToolsandTechniques.3Outputs.1Productdescription.2Otherplanningoutputs.3Historicalinformation.1Checklists.2Flowcharting.3Interviewing.1Sourcesofrisk.2Potentialriskevents.3Risksymptoms.4Inputstootherprocesses.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.1Inputs.2ToolsandTechniques.3Outputs.1Stakeholderrisktolerances.2Sourcesofrisk.3Potentialriskevents.4Costestimates.5Activitydurationestimates.1Expectedmonetaryvalue.2Statisticalsums.3Simulation.4Decisiontrees.5Expertjudgment.1Opportunitiestopursue,threatstorespondto.2Opportunitiestoignore,threatstoaccept.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.1.1.1Inputs.2ToolsandTechniques.3Outputs.1Opportunitiestopursue,threatstorespondto.2Opportunitiestoignore,threatstoaccept.1Procurement.2Contingencyplanning.3Alternativestrategies.4Insurance.1Riskmanagementplan.2Inputstootherprocesses.3Contingencyplans.4Reserves.5Contractualagreements.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.3.1.1ProjectRiskManagementFigure11–1.ProjectRiskManagementOverviewPROJECTRISKMANAGEMENT11.1.2.1©1996ProjectManagementInstitute,130SouthStateRoad,UpperDarby,PA19082USA113Riskidentificationmaybeaccomplishedbyidentifyingcauses-and-effects(whatcouldhappenandwhatwillensue)oreffects-and-causes(whatoutcomesaretobeavoidedorencouragedandhoweachmightoccur).11.1.1InputstoRiskIdentification.1Productdescription.Thenatureoftheproductoftheprojectwillhaveamajoref-fectontherisksidentified.Productsthatinvolveproventechnologywill,allotherthingsbeingequal,involvelessriskthanproductswhichrequireinnovationorin-vention.Risksassociatedwiththeproductoftheprojectareoftendescribedintermsoftheircostandscheduleimpact.Section5.1.1.1hasadditionalinformationabouttheproductdescription..2Otherplanningoutputs.Theoutputsoftheprocessesinotherknowledgeareasshouldbereviewedtoidentifypossiblerisks.Forexample:•Workbreakdownstructure—non-traditionalapproachestodetaildeliverablesmayofferopportunitiesthatwerenotapparentfromthehigher-leveldeliver-ablesidentifiedinthescopestatement.•Costestimatesanddurationestimates—aggressiveestimatesandestimatesde-velopedwithalimitedamountofinformationentailmorerisk.•Staffingplan—identifiedteammembersmayhaveuniqueskillsthatwouldbehardtoreplaceormayhaveothercommitmentsthatmaketheiravailabilityt