世行项目评估手册（英文）

HANDBOOKONECONOMICANALYSISOFINVESTMENTOPERATIONSPedroBelliJockAndersonHowardBarnumJohnDixonJee-PengTanOperationalCoreServicesNetworkLearningandLeadershipCenterJanuary26,1998AcknowledgmentsThisHandbookistheproductofateameffort.JockAndersoncontributedtothechapteronriskanalysis,HowardBarnumtothechapterontheassessmentofhealthprojects,JohnDixontothechapteronenvironmentalexternalities,andJee-PengTantothechapterontheassessmentofeducationprojects.GeorgePsacharopoulosprovidedveryvaluableinputsontheassessmentofeducationprojects.RodrigoArchondo-Callao,ShantaDeverajan,ColinA.Gannon,PabloGuerrero,KennethM.Gwilliam,IanG.Heggie,DavidHughart,HowardJones,UlrichLachler,JulioLinares,RicardoMartin,RobertoMosse,A.MeadOver,DavidA.Phillips,AnandarupRay,RobertSchneider,ZmarakShalizi,SethaputSuthiwart-Narueput,LynSquire,AlfredThieme,UlrichThumm,HermanvanderTak,WilliamA.Ward,andKennethWatsonprovidedinsightfulcomments.WeoweamajorintellectualdebttoArnoldA.Harberger;throughhiswritingsovertheyearshenotonlyprovidedthetheoreticalunderpinningsoftheapproachbutalsocommentedonseveralversionsofthemanuscript.WearealsothankfultoGlennJenkinsforkindlygrantingpermissiontousecasematerialsthathehasdevelopedforuseatHarvardUniversity.ManythanksalsogotoPatriciaRogers,forhereditorialservices,andtoToneemaHaqandKristynSchraderfortheirassistanceinwritingvariousillustrativeboxes,manipulatinglargeamountsofunwieldydata,andskillfullyputtingthemanuscripttogether.Anyerrorsareentirelymyresponsibility.PedroBelliJanuary26,1998ContentsIntroduction...................................................................................................................1OrganizationoftheHandbook.........................................................................................1Chapter1.AnoverviewofEconomicAnalysis.............................................................3PurposeofEconomicAnalysis.........................................................................................3TheEconomicSetting......................................................................................................3RationaleforPublicSectorInvolvement...........................................................................3OtherAspectsofProjectAnalysis....................................................................................4Fungibility........................................................................................................................4TheQuestionsthatEconomicAnalysisShouldAnswer....................................................5Whatistheobjectiveoftheproject?.....................................................................5Whatwillhappeniftheprojectisundertaken?Whatifitisnot?...........................5Istheprojectthebestalternative?.........................................................................5Arethereanyseparablecomponents?Howgoodarethey?..................................6Winnersandlosers:Whoenjoysthemusic?Whopaysthepiper?........................6Whatistheproject’sfiscalimpact?.......................................................................6Istheprojectfinanciallysustainable?.....................................................................6Whatistheproject’senvironmentalimpact?.........................................................6Techniquesforassessment:Istheprojectworthwhile?.........................................7Isthisariskyproject?...........................................................................................7TheProcessofEconomicanalysis....................................................................................7Transparency...................................................................................................................8Chapter2.RationaleforPublicProvision....................................................................9GeneralConsiderations..................................................................................................10MarketFailures..............................................................................................................10NaturalMonopolies............................................................................................10Externalities.......................................................................................................11PublicGoods......................................................................................................12AsymmetricInformationandIncompleteMarkets...............................................13OtherGroundsforPublicIntervention...........................................................................16PovertyReduction..............................................................................................16MeritGoods.......................................................................................................16DistributionofExternalities............................................................................................16Summary...........................