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上海交通大学硕士学位论文大中型工业项目实施阶段的风险及对策研究姓名：李波申请学位级别：硕士专业：工业工程指导教师：蔡建国;马远周20051101IIIIIIAsoneoftheimportantsubjectsofprojectmanagement,projectriskmanagementoriginatedafterthe1stWordWar,anditwasrecognizedandwidelyappliedafter50soflastcentury,especiallyafterlast80s,alongwiththefastdevelopmentofhightechnologyandeconomyglobalization,theresearchofprojectriskmanagementhasbeenbecomingmoreandmoresystematicandprofessional.InChina,thesystematicprojectriskmanagementframeworkwasdevelopedbytheendoflastcentury,butthepracticalapplicationofprojectriskmanagementstillneedsfurtherimprovement.Inrecentyears,moreandmoreprojectshavebeeninvestedinChinabyforeigncompanies.Theseforeigninvestmentprojectsbroughtadvancedandsystematicprojectmanagementsystem,includingprojectriskmanagementsystem,intoChina,buttheyalsoneedtounderstandtheprojectrisksmanagementinChina.Withabovebackground,thisthesisfocusedonthemediumorlargeindustrialproject,researchedprojectcharacter,projectmanagement,typicalChineseconstructionprojectprocess,riskmanagement,andprojectriskmanagement.Followingtheprocessofriskidentification,riskassessment,riskresponseandriskmonitoring,thisthesisalsoappliedabovetheoreticsandconceptstothestudyofriskanditscountermeasuresformediumorlargeindustrialproject.Thefirst2chaptersofthisthesisprovidedthebackgroundandbasictheoreticsofthesubject.Thefirstchapterbriefedthecurrentinternationalanddomesticstudystatusofthesubject,thesispurpose,andthesisscope,whichisriskanditscountermeasuresresearchfortheimplementationphaseofmediumorlargeindustrialproject.Thesecondchapterbriefedtheconceptandcharacterofindustrialproject,riskofindustryproject,andprojectriskmanagement,whickisthetheoreticalfoundationoffurtherriskmanagementstudyfortheimplementationphaseofmediumorlargeindustrialproject.A2-dimensionriskassessmentmodel,whichanalysesandevaluatestheriskIVaccordingtothelikelihoodthattheriskwillberealizedandtheseriousness/impactthattheriskwillhaveifitdoesoccur,wasintroducedasthebasisoffutureriskassessment.Atthelast,chapter2alsointroducedprojectriskmanagementprocess,whichincludesfourstepsnamedasriskidentification,riskassessment,riskresponse,andriskmonitoring,aswellastheinput,approach,andoutputofeachstep.Chapter3,4,and5aretheprojectriskmanagementpracticeontheimplementationphaseofmediumorlargeindustrialproject.Chapter3isforprojectengineeringriskmanagement,whichintroducedtheconcept,purpose,andprincipleofprojectengineeringatthebeginning,andthenanalyzedtheengineeringobjective,includingschedule,cost,andquality,atlastitidentifiedandanalyzedtheprojectengineeringrisksandprovidedDesignChangeProcedureandDesignCompanySelectionProcedureastheriskresponse.Chapter4detailedtheconcept,principle,objectiveandkeyrolesofprojectprocurement,identifiedandassessedtheprojectprocurementrisk,andalsoprovidedContractorSelectionProcedure,VendorSelectionProcedure,examplesofProcurementPlanstoresponseandmonitorprojectprocurementrisk.Chapter5firstlyintroducedtheconstructionconcept,character,processandprojectconstructionobjectives,includingqualityobjective,scheduleobjective,costobjective,andsafetyobjective,andthenidentifiedandassessedconstructionqualityrisk,schedulerisk,costriskandsafetyrisk,atlastdevelopedrelevantriskresponseandmonitoringplansandprocedures,includingtheproceduresofContractorTechnicalSubmission,MethodStatementApproval,ConstructionEquipmentInspection,FieldChangeControl,TechnicalQuery,ConstructionSafetyManagementGuidance,andSafetyAuditAnalysis,andalsoprovidedtypicalconstructionpermittingprocessandanexampleofProjectRiskTracking.Thepostscriptofthisthesisbriefedthedynamicprojectriskmanagementconcept,restrictionandlimitationofthisthesis,andopportunitiesforfurtherresearch.Totallythereare18appendixesattachedafterthethesis.Theseappendixescouldbeusedasguidanceandreferenceofriskmanagementfortypicalindustrialproject.Theseprocedureshavebeenpracticedintheprojectweareexecutingandtheyareprovedtobeveryusefulintermofriskmanagementforindustryprojectimplementationphases.projectmanagement,riskmanagement,industrialproject,projectimplementation200512121[]2341.2.3.4.55.62.1Figure2.1MediumandLargeIndustryProjectLifecycle789[][]102.2Figure2.2RiskLevelofDifferentProjectPhasesofMediumandLargeIndustryProjectLifecycle11ØØØØØØØØØØØØØ12131415161718191234561234567891234123123121234567891234567891012202110.050.40.0220.10.10.0130.10.10.0140.30.20.0650.10.20.0260.70.40.2810.70.80.5620.10.050.00530.30.40.1210.10.10.0120.10.10.0130.10.10.0130.70.20.1440.050.20.0150.10.10.0260.10.10.0170.10.10.010.30.40.120.50.40.200.10.40.040.30.40.120.50.40.200.10.40.040.10.10.010.10.40.040.50.40.200.30.050.150.10.10.010.70.40.280.10.80.080.10.20.020.30.40.120.30.40.120.30.40.120.50.40.200.30.20.060.30.80.240.10.10.010.050.20.010.050.20.010.050.40.020.10.10.010.050.40.020.050.050.010.050.40.020.050.10.0120.10.10.012210.27420.16030.15640.12050.06660.06070.06080.06090.052100.022110.018120.012130.009140.009150.008160.006170.006180.006190.006200.005210.005220.005230.005240.005250.005260.005270.005280.004290.003300.00323243.410.27420.16030.15640.12050.066